The WAVE Report
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0624.1 Story of the
0624.2 OLED Technology
DisplaySearch Updates 2006
OLED Technology Report, Lowers OLED Revenue Forecast to $4.6B in 2010
0624.3 Conference Schedules
Wales to Host World Symposium
0624.1 Story of the Issue
By John Latta
June 9, 2006
Computex opens its 26th year in a very strong position. It is THE PC
hardware show in the world. This year had increasing presence by Japanese
and American companies. Over and over, as we talked to show floor attendees,
the common comment was that this is the place to be for the latest in
Taiwan is riding on its success in leveraging China as the production
base. Statistics also released provide a context.
Global PC market grew at
14.5% to 188.5m units
Taiwanese IT Hardware industry grew 15% to $80B US.
Notebooks account for 37% of the value in 2005.
Taiwanese makers in 2005
72.4% notebook market share.
Made 20m units of
Have 96.5% of the Motherboard
Shipped 194,000 IP Phones
Have 79% of the PDA
VIA Technology Forum
VIA puts on an event in conjunction with Computex which lays out its
vision of the future. We highlight key points.
Wenchi Chen, President and
CEO, VIA Technologies, showed their effort at making smaller and more
power efficient PCs. One is the latest chip code named John which is
a PC SOC including the core logic. When this is integrated
into a board, there is a complete system on a card 3.5” square.
A three-step plan for the
evolution for Digital Intelligence happens on 3 levels:
level – more
Platform level – more
System level – more
AMD Strategy in Multi-core Future
Phil Hester, SVP and CTO, AMD provided the AMD strategy
for extending the x86 architecture. The future will not be the same
PCs of past. His presentation was entitled “The Next Wave of
They seek to integrate software,
architecture, process and manufacturing for the best solutions on a
customer basis. In terms of the design efforts they will balance single
thread vs. multiple thread performance and seek to have rapid designs to meet
Production in Dresden will
rise 4X in 3 years with 65nm on line 4Q 2006 and 45nm mid-2008.
Rather than focus on the
core as the design center AMD sees10 modular elements:
L3 = L3 Cacpute Core
MC = Memory Controller
HT = Hyper-Transport
CB = Cross Bar Switch
IO = I/O Interfaces
C1 = Clocks
CO = Controls
L1 = L1 Cache
L2 = L2 Che
The intent in the future
is to use these modular technologies as the foundation for creating
multi-core solutions. A key element of this is to achieve higher performance
An example of a 2 core server
and desktop chip was shown. This integrated the direct connect architecture
with the Northbridge to achieve significant transfer performance
via HT. This is not a simple core and includes a 128bit instruction fetch and
out-of-order load execution.
Power management is a part
of the multi-core strategy and examples were show of power-down states
on a 4 core chip. It was predicted that 150% improvement in performance/watt
would be achieved by 2008.
The future is more complex
with significant diversity of workloads. This creates the need for
tailored solutions per customer or application.
Examples where specific needs for co-processors improvements include:
Java, XML, Vector Floating Point and Media Processing. As disparate
cores are placed on a die high speed data movement is critical.
AMD expects that its HyperTransport technology, at the
die level, will provide this.
AMDs focus for what it calls a “customer-centric” innovation
platform is Torrenza. This is an open silicon platform which uses the
Direct Connect Architecture. It will
even use customer centric accelerators for XML, gaming and
more. Solution space examples include: teleco, enterprise technologies
It was shown where Sun,
IBM, HP and Cray are part of this “innovation community.”
AMD ended by stating that the “opening
up the architecture to benefit the entire ecosystem” will provide
a platform for innovation.
We came away stuck by the implications of such a heterogeneous multi-core
Not one word was said about Moore’s
Law. AMD does not care about pushing the envelope of compute performance
over time. This is now secondary. If anything is primary, it
This architecture says much
about the future of the PC as seen by AMD. The future is not about
replicating the X86 architecture NX but about matching the die with the
applications. By implication, most PCs will not need all the power present
with NX cores but there are potential applications that do need the equivalent
compute power. AMD wants to seize on this. Their strategy is engagement
with the buyers of the chips themselves.
There is really not a multi-core
strategy but a chip strategy which uses modular components to assemble
multiple processing elements based on need. In really this
is very different than a pure multi-core strategy.
By implication, the burden
of supporting a chip lies with the customer and assumed application
holder. Yet, the presentation seemed oversimplified in terms of the
burden carried by the customer to make such products work.
It would seem that, as the solutions get more complex, such
as the number of processing elements on a chip increases,
transport management will become much more important. One only
has to look at the IBM cell architecture to see this. It
is not clear how much the customer of these chips will have
to get involved in making a chip actually work in an application. Put in another
way, will the software support burden dramatically rise and potentially
hold back the apparent value of this strategy?
Technology Abounds - From the Floor
If there was one common measure that surfaced over
and over – it
fits into the palm of the hand. The other was excellent ID. This is no
longer the big white box PC era.
has a show special for a plug and play IP cam – only
One of the most
ironic products seen at Computex – an iPod plug in stand
for a vacuum tube audio amplifier with side speakers.
Beautiful ID but a contradiction in technology.
Aspire 9000 is
just what Acer describes “Way beyond the notebook norm.” With
a 20.1” WXSGA+ display, 240GB SATA drive, Intel Centrion
Duo, NVIDIA GEforce Go 7600 graphics, and Dolby
Digital Live this is one massive notebook. In the booth
it was playing a movie trailer.
Ferrari notebook series has outstanding design and this has been
extended with the 5000. This notebook has a 15.4” display
with WSXGA+ resolution. It has VVoIP – video
and voice of IP embedded in.
Aichi Steel Corp.
was a 6 DOF sensor which detects rotation and XYZ velocity. It was
being demonstrated with a simple hand held device while watching
the movement on objects on the screen of a notebook.
Primary application is in cell phones in Japan – 2m
Vodafone phones in Japan have them. The “flip” phones.
Its Pocket TV,
T1, supports a 3.5” display, channel scanning and EPG. They
also claim the world’s smallest set to box, STB-1, which
fits in the palm of the hand. This supports DVB-T
where one can see and record programs. One can output
also for display to any AV device.
had the only Origami UMPC seen at the show. It supports: MP3.WMA,
MPEG 2/4, 7” TFT LCD touch screen and Wireless 802.11
b/g. There is add on support for digital TV and navigation.
is another personal GPS/GSM tacker. Well integrated with an emergency
a Digital Signage monitor this was a walk up touch monitor that responded
directly to touch – big at 47”.
Double H Technology
was a palm sized solar powered Bluetooth GPS receiver in either 14
or 20 channel models.
Eversun Electronic Co.
is an IP camera. Cost is only $50, FOB HK for 1,000 units.
Bluetooth presenters were show. One of the most intriguing is eDlo
with a beatifically integrated mouse and laser pointer. Excellent
ID and fits into the palm of ones hand.
iRiver and Nvidia
showed a hand held device by iRiver for Korea which uses Windows Mobil
5.0 and connectivity with WiBro. Two units were
seen, one with a keyboard, Very impressive.
View Touch technology allows for laser pointer interaction
with displays up to 80”. Impressive.
Promoting the “world’s
first real time HD wireless solution” it is
claimed that Liberte Fly-V-Over will support 1280 X 720 wireless
distribution in the home.
was showing a family of handheld devices of which Pocket TV was the
most noticeable. The model D310 supports:
Support with embedded antenna jack
and MPEG3 Playback
TFT LCD – QCIF resolution
of the unit is literally the size of the display.
4 playback from card slot
shown was Crystal 945, an all-in-one LCD PC. similar to the Apple
PCs which are integrated into the display, the ID was
company is doing the vacuum tube amplifier discussed previously
by A-Zone International. The cost is $210 FOB Southern
China. A unit was playing in the booth. Crowds and more
crowds. Audio quality very good.
is a web based tracking GPS/GSM device. It fits in the palm of
ones hand and can be tracked via PDA, Mobil, web or phone.
has a security system based on locks for notebooks. They have
gone beyond this to support cameras, port locks
for notebooks, iPod locks and luggage for IT and other
equipment. Very good ID.
Stars Navigation Technologies
is personal tracking technology. Attach the small device to anything
personal including children and one can track their movements
via GPS. In order to work, one has to place a GSM
sim card into the tracker. Major limitation. The US retail
is also expensive $250 retail.
is showing a suite of remote control products based on soft displays.
For example, the SRC-3020 is a universal remote with
learning and online upgrades. It also has a macro capability
and backlit LCD.
V-Gear (Asiamajor, Inc.)
is a cute and well integrated IP cam. Due to go on sale by the end
of June for $250. Built in microphone, and video
and audio monitoring. Web browser set up and control.
4X digital zoom and infrared motion detection. E-mail warning.
USB port for image storage. This camera will pan
and zoom but only by control. Missing are alerts based
on movement other than e-mail and the inability to
track movement. Excellent ID.
of the most interesting notebook add-ons looks like a docking station
but Piano 101 is a cooling pad, USB hub and an innovative
speaker system. The speakers are attached to Piano and
rotate to align with the screen. Excellent ID. $55 -
$60 FBO 1000 unit quantities.
X-VDO MP4 F610 is a music video player. It supports a 1.5” OLED
and MP3/WMA playback. There is also a photo viewer, FM radio and
Windows CE.NET 5.0 X-ten has combined a 3.5” display
with a DAB/DMB dual band receiver, Bluetooth and
built in navigation system to provide in car television and navigation.
an Electron-Luminescence keyboard.
2.0 digital television receiver in a dongle with a small
whip antenna. The DV-B1-U2TV allows for full screen review and play,
real time digital recording in MPEG 2, display of up
to 9 channels, time shifting and still frame capture.
The package of components fits into the palm of the
As we probed those selling Skype products, here are some interesting
With 100m users Skype is
VoIP. SIP may be interesting technology but it is the customer base
that drives the market not technology. The fact that Skype does not
use SIP is to their market advantage. Skype is not open
and there is no reason to be so. In terms of VoIP, Skype
is the only effective player in the market.
From a supplier standpoint,
getting on the Skype Shop is a big deal. This is also a major source
of Skype revenue, in addition to Skype In. Suppliers strive for the Skype
logo gain and it gives them considerable competitive advantage.
Skype rules it market, from
a supplier perspective, with an iron hand. As one vendor said: It is
time consuming, difficult and costly to gain the Skype Logo.
Skype can be seen as just
IP-based voice and signaling Transport, BUT Skype does not want this
as it will diminish its competitive position. Further, if Skype offers
a service, such as, Skype Voicemail, no Skype label
product can offer voice mail.
Unified messaging, using
Skype as transport, is inconsistent with Skype’s control of the
market. Thus, products which would normally be telecommunications feature
rich will be truncated based on Skype’s own best interest
and especially its control of the subscriber base.
0624.2 OLED Technology
***DisplaySearch Updates 2006 OLED Technology Report, Lowers OLED Revenue
Forecast to $4.6B in 2010
June 8, 2006
DisplaySearch has updated its 2006 OLED Technology Report, a comprehensive
examination of the fledgling OLED industry, which reached revenues of
$491M in 2005, up 8% Y/Y, and unit shipments of 55.8M, up 72%. Updates
are due to a number of recent changes affecting the OLED industry:
Liquidation of SK Display
The OLED display makers are in transition from passive matrix to active
matrix centricity, not unlike LCDs in the early to mid 1990s. The difference
is that AMOLED display makers expect to ride the benefits of the existing
TFT infrastructure created for LCDs. The report shows the status of material
development, manufacturing (both evaporation and ink-jet printing) and
the proposed solutions to high yielding a-Si and p-Si backplanes.
Table 1: OLED Display Revenue by Application (US$M)
Application 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Mobile Telephone 10.7 64.3 455.4
1,580.9 2,701.8 3,189.1
MP3 Player 155.5 182.1 299.5 357.1 350.1 459.8
Mobile Telephone Sub-displays 245.6 230.5 224.7 216.4 211.2 206.8
Wearable 5.3 14.1 33.6 77.2 111.2 153.1
Car Audio 58.7 61.2 71.1 82.5 96.4 104.4
Digital Camera 0.0 2.0 14.1 39.9 61.7 80.4
Total 486.0 554.2
1,098.4 2,354.0 3,532.4 4,193.6
Y/Y Growth (%) 8% 13% 98% 114% 50% 19%
Five-year forecast for revenue, units and prices for AMOLEDS and PMOLEDs
Current status of material and process licensing
One of the unique features of the report is a forecast of the OLED capacity
as shown in Table 2 by active, passive, SM and P-OLED technology and
the associated organic material usage in weight and in revenue, differentiated
by emitting and conducting layers for both small molecule and P-OLEDs.
The organic material is forecast to grow from $220M in 2005 to $549M
in 2010, driven by the increased capacity of the AMOLED display makers.
Table 2: Organic Material Forecast (US$) vs. Display Production*
Type 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Small Molecule Panels (000) 77.2 101.3 195.1 433.0 692.4 863.6
Polymer Panels (000) 3.2 5.7 32.6 87.7 213.8 338.5
Total 2" Panels (000) 80.4 107.0 227.7 520.7 906.2 1202.1
Small Molecule Material (US$M) $219 $245 $300 $385 $440 $489
Polymer Material (US$M) $1 $1 $7 $19 $42 $60
(US$M) $220 $246 $307 $404 $482 $549
*Includes material used in production and R&D facilities for 2” displays
0624.3 Conference Schedules
***Wales to Host World Symposium on Holography
St. Asaph, North Wales
June 13, 2006
Wales is hosting one of the world's major conferences on holography,
attracting some of the top scientists, technologists, artists and specialist
holographic companies from across the globe.
The 7th International Symposium on Display Holography will take place
at Technium OpTIC, St Asaph, North Wales - part of the Welsh Assembly
Government's pan-Wales Technium network - between the 10-14 July 2006.
Alongside this will be a major holographic exhibition - the largest
of its kind staged in the UK in the last 10 years - which will be open
to the public at nearby Bodelwyddan Castle.
Organisers chose the location because of the work undertaken at OpTIC
- a centre of expertise on opto-electronics - where the respected Centre
for Modern Optics is based and opportunities for holography are being
researched and developed.
The Holography Symposium is the seventh in a series stretching back
to 1982 which have been held throughout the world and attract an international
audience. This is the first time that it has come to the UK.
World renowned holographers are expected to use the event to publish
papers on a range of topics - from commercial holography to scientific,
technical and medical imaging. Around 120 delegates are expected to attend
the five-day event from the USA, Australia, Japan, Taiwan, China, Russia
and mainland Europe.
The Symposium is being sponsored and supported by the Welsh Assembly
Government, Denbighshire County Council, Fuji Hunt, Light Impressions,
Concord Marlin Lighting, The Jonathan Ross Collection, The Holographer,
Technium OpTIC and SPIE.
The main Chair of the event will be Hans I.Bjelkhagen, Professor of
Interferential Imaging Sciences with NEWI, Wrexham and head of the Centre
for Modern Optics at OpTIC.
In conjunction with the Symposium, a major holography exhibition will
be staged at Bodelwyddan Castle, including the Jonathan Ross Collection.
Begun in 1978, the collection has evolved over the years to incorporate
a wide variety of material and is used as a source of reference by individuals
wishing to learn more about holography and the many different ways in
which it can be used.
Information about the event and exhibition can be found at
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