WiMAX World 2005
By John Latta, WAVE
0548 12/2/05
Boston , MA
October 28 - 29, 2005
The largest development here at
WiMAX World is the attendance – estimated
at 3,000. But there is more. A new application is emerging, with 802.11:
it is the creation of wireless digital communities based on funding,
in part, by municipalities. In addition, the 802.16e standard has changed
including hand-off which places WiMAX on a collision course with cellular.
Much has changed in one year.
The venue has changed to the World Congress Center in Boston
from a hotel last year. But the Congress Center is strained. The exhibit
area is small and occupies only a fraction of the available space. The
conference sessions are packed. WiMAX has turned a corner to create great
interest in a broad community of sellers and buyers.
WiMAX Timeline
We will capture some of the key events both present and
future to place WiMAX in context.
802.16e, the mobility standard, is complete and will
be finalized by December 2005.
A major addition is the ability to support make-before-break
handover.
Certified products are expected December 2006.
802.16 – 2004, the fixed standard,
has been out a year and the certification process is underway. The
second plug fest will take place November 2005. Certified products
are due December 2005.
CPE will launch:
802.16-2004 – End 2005
802.16e – End 2007
PC Cards for 802.16e – Christmas
2007
Native Notebooks with 802.16e – 2H
2008
Full Cellular WiMAX capabilities – 2H
2008 to 1H 2009
WiMAX vs. Cellular
The words are careful:
WiMAX is complementary with cellular systems.
The reality is different. WiMAX is on a direct collision
course to compete with cellular systems. Some points made during the
presentations:
The existence of WiMAX with full mobility has forced
GSM and the cellular suppliers to move more quickly to define their
offerings beyond 3G.
The center of the efforts in 4G is
under the ITU Working Party 8F – IMT-2000 and systems beyond
IMT-2000. So far, the basis for 4G is based on concepts and have
not been reduced to standards. Some of the concepts being discussed
include:
MIMO-OFDM
1Gb/s peak with 100MB/s average rates
All IP Networks
Within 3GPP, these efforts to define
4G are called LTE – Long
Term Evolution.
The time paths for both technologies can best be estimated
today at:
1 – 10Mb/s – WiMAX – 2007 – 2008
1 – 10Mb/s – 3GPP LTE – 2008 - 2012
This latter disconnect causes concern in the cellular
industrial base.
Emergence of Digital Communities
Much press has been generated about communities implementing
full-city wireless networks. WiMAX plays a role here, to begin with,
as the back haul technology. But with the development of 802.16e, it
can further extend the reach and quality of what is called here as personal
broadband. Here are some points picked up from the presentations:
It could well be that non-traditional suppliers will
emerge in the implementation of these networks. For example, EarthLink
won the contract to do Philadelphia and Google has emerged as a competitor
for San Francisco.
Many of these systems begin with the intent to improve
public safety but expand will beyond to public access. Areas where
these networks are having a role include:
Healthcare and Education
Retail and Distribution
Telco, Energy and Utilities
Travel and Transportation
The need for these public systems has been accelerated
by the recent disasters, in particular the Hurricanes.
It is estimated that 250 communities are planning or
have implemented these networks.
The dark cloud over these efforts is that the traditional
carriers are trying to stop them. Verizon sought Pennsylvania legislation
to prohibit Philadelphia from implementing its city-wide network. Language
in the re-write of the Telecommunications Act of 1996 apparently has
words which prohibit such systems.
Korea as Stimulant
The WiBro efforts in Korea are recognized here. KT was
involved in a panel presentation and has joined the WiMAX Forum. Many
are looking for major progress to be made in Korea as it shows the first
systems at the APEC Summit meeting in November in Pusan. Korea.
WiMAX Market Dynamics
The WAVE probed for the market dynamics around WiMAX. Here
is what we found:
The two standards, 802.16 – 2004 (aka 802.16d)
and the “mobility standard” 802.16e are incompatible. That
is, a radio for 802.16e will not necessarily be able to communicate
with an 802.16 – 2004 radio. 802.16e uses OFDMA technology, but
it does not have to, and 802.16 – 2004 only relies on OFDM technology.
OFMDA is less stable in terms of a technology definition than OFDM.
As a result, some of the silicon suppliers have little interest in
creating products just for 805.16 – 2004 as this will be a smaller
market and ultimately fade away.
Discussions with silicon suppliers,
i.e., competitors, netted that Intel’s silicon is 2 years behind
leaders in the industry. Runcom Technologies, for example, was showing
a working radio at 802.16e in its booth.
The market viability of WiMAX will ultimately rest based
on spectrum availability. The U.S. has no spectrum at 3.5GHz while
the rest of the world has 3.5GHz availability. Carriers seek to avoid
unlicensed bands as much as possible due to the inability to guarantee
service.
The Korean WiBro trials, beginning in November 2005,
and service availability in 2006, is a major event forcing pre-certification
product availability to meet the service needs. Yes, there are many
trials around the world but the demands for equipment in Korea to fulfill
this government mandate are driving the equipment market.
From a market competition standpoint, the silicon suppliers
view Intel not as a competitor but a major market creation spending
machine. The real competition is with Qualcomm and especially its acquisition
of Flarion. No one that the WAVE spoke with has an idea what Qualcomm
is seeking to do in the market and especially the role it will play
with IP. The next competition comes from the existing 3G ecosystem.
Intel makes the pitch to the carriers
that WiMAX offers the opportunity to decrease your costs because
you will no longer have to subsidize the terminals. The reason being
that every laptop will come with WiMAX built in just like WiFi. Yet,
many others, including the silicon suppliers, view head-to-head competition
with cellular voice using WiMAX and this is likely to follow the same aggressive market
tactics in cellular and the need to subsidize the terminals.
Offering cellular service at 3.5GHz and even 5GHz will
force cell spacing closer than existing cell phone systems. This has
the potential of demanding a new roll out of investment for infrastructure
to create seamless coverage. That is, using the existing cellular towers
and sites will not be adequate for WiMAX. Mobility demands seamless
handoffs and this directly relates to cellular density and spacing.
The inclusion of make-before-break
requirements in 802.16e to support hand-off is just the tip of the
iceberg. Seamless mobility without interruption of service, which
is done well with cellular service today, is a major technical accomplishment
and WiMAX has much to do to make this work. Just because it claims
that hand-off is present in the specification does not mean that
it can be accomplished with the same user experience that has come
to be expected with traditional cellular services. When the WAVE
asked – will the hand off experience
with WiMAX be the same as in 3G, we could get no response.
WiMAX Forum is seeking to joint the
on-going efforts to define 4G under the ITU Working Party 8F – IMT-2000 and so
far its attempts have been resisted. This is seen as the “old
guard” in cellular resisting the new forces. The WiMAX Forum
has gone to the EU, apparently to gain support, for its attempt to
join the ITU efforts. The WiMAX Forum claims that ultimately the standards
for 4G will converge between traditional GSM efforts on 4G and WiMAX
technology. Ultimately this is all about control of the technology
which underlies the wireless communications infrastructure.
Many cellular carriers are worried
that WiMAX will undercut their existing business. The statements
that WiMAX is complementary and provides “personal broadband” do
not lessen the fears that this technology could allow for significant
competition to their core business.
In new cellular services a major
gating factor is terminal availability. Lucent cited that it took
nearly 5 years to get quality and high volume handsets to market
for 3G. So far, there has been little focus on handsets for WiMAX.
Intel has directed its attention to notebooks and this is considered
a small market for the potential of WiMAXterminal equipment. When
it was pointed out that Intel also seeks to sell chip sets to the
cellular market, one silicon vendor just laughed – Intel
has been unsuccessful here and they see no prospect of this changing
in WiMAX.
“Rogue” suppliers of communications,
such as Google in San Francisco, and Earthlink in Philadelphia, could
be a significant disruptive force in their ability to cherry pick
the wireless market. WiMAX, with its support of WiFi, especially
in back haul distribution, could make for a more economical infrastructure.
This would then put the existing cellular carriers at a major disadvantage.
Thus, the emergance of city-wide municipality-supported networks, many
of which are free, is seen as a threat to the business of the wireless
carriers.
Ron Resnick, President and Chair , WiMAX Forum and VP
of Marketing, Intel, stated that it is the objective of the WiMAX Forum
to provide WiMAX with the lowest cost IPR overhead. It was stated that
there will not be a significant IPR burden for handsets.
Lucent Gives an Operator Perspective
Lucent presented its view of the market, in part, in response
to the requests it gets from the fixed line operators. Points raised
include:
From an operator perspective, the
two cost items which most impact the balance
sheet are:
1. Cell phone subsidy with the worldwide average at
$50 per phone.
2. Backhaul costs.
WiMAX offers the opportunity to decrease these costs.
The continuation of Intel Centrino to WiMAX would eliminate the $50
subsidy if it is assumed there are no handsets provided to customers
for WiMAX service.
WiMAX should be seen from the perspective of the opportunities
it provides. For the Mobile Network Operator (MNO), this enables a
fixed service bundle for phone and DSL and includes nomadic and portable
access. For the Fixed Network Operator (FNO) it provides the opportunity
to fillxDSL white spots and the opportunity to enter the nomadic/portable
market.
The major issue impacting the deployment
of WiMAX is spectrum availability. The most favored spectrum is 3.5GHz
but this is not available in the U.S. 5.8GHz is unlicensed in most
of the world but it has significant limitations due to propagation
that will require small cell sizes (600m in cities) to achieve performance
and coverage. In the 700MHz range, the U.S. has a major advantage
of propagation and in building penetration. It can also increase
the radius of cell sites in rural areas – to 50Km.
An operator might use unlicensed for
backhaul but it would not in dense urban areas.
WiMAX is not good for in-building service.
Qualcom is opening the salvo for the next battle in wireless
and this comes in part with their acquisition of Flarion.
Lucent adds value where WiMAX is weak. This includes:
Network management systems
Integration and test with operational systems
Worldwide support.
Lucent feels that the current placement of WiMAX, in
priority, is:
Fixed Rural Wireless Broadband Services
Metro Government – City WiFi
Fixed Urban T1/DSL Replacement
Mobile Data Overlay – when 802.16e is available
Runcom Technologies – Showing
Operating 802.16e
Runcom has as its strength OFDMA technology and supplies
SOC products for phones and base stations. In the booth, it was showing
a working prototype of a 802.16e system. The major competition in the
market is Qualcomm. What Intel has done is to bring its marketing power
to help create WiMAX.
Wavesat – 802.16e Mini-PCI Form
Factor
Wavesat sees an evolution in the market. They have implemented
a mini-PCI card with their silicon. It is possible to implement 802.16e
using just OFDM technology. OFDMA will come with a later revision. They
believe the market will begin with simple mobility. It was also cautioned
that seamless handoff will take some time to develop.
WAVE Comments
WiFi is becoming WiCity. Cities are seeing an advantage
to becoming connected everywhere. Spain is seeking a WiFi umbrella over
the country. This has significant advantages to city services, emergency
response and competitive economic benefit. There are 250+ cities in the
U.S. either considering or implementing citywide wireless networks. WiMAX
plays an important role here in that it lowers backhaul costs. WiMAX
becomes the wireless umbrella that connects WiFi access points.
In spite of the careful positioning
of WiMAX to be a “complementary” offering
in wireless this is just not the case. There are two economic factors:
First, the MAN market is trivial compared
to the cellular market. It hardly makes sense to create a whole MAN
ecosystem solution without addressing mobility. Any mobility solution
that does not at least match what 3G and 4G is capable of will not
get market traction. At the same time, this forces WiMAX to duplicate
what cellular has been very effective in accomplishing – seamless
mobility with hand off.
Second, the driver behind WiMAX, in particular Intel,
is the need for additional sources of growth. The cellular pie is a
candidate but to accomplish this requires the mantle of standards,
technology and much more. Thus, WiMAX is largely a U.S. effort in direct
competition with the wireless industry in Europe. The WAVE has seen
this before in conferences in Europe and the reality has finally surfaced
in the U.S.
|
