CES 2004
By John.N.Latta
Wave Issue 0348 01/30/04
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|
|
|
||||||
|
||||||||
|
||||||||
 |
||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||
|
January 7-9 The 2004 International CES spanned 1.38 million net square feet and brought together 129,000 industry professionals, 2,400 exhibiting companies and 18,000 international travelers from 110 countries. COMDEX has been left in the dust. Keynotes The PC industry needs another source of income in order to grow when the PC sales are flat. The hot target is CE. Thus, there were forceful presentations at this event by Microsoft, HP and Intel. Overall we felt the presentation by Intel was the most coherent. Bill Gates, Microsoft Bill Gates said the industry could now deliver on its promises to consumers. Microsoft has shown a path to this business with the Media PC and the PC industry is embracing this. But we got tired of the phrase – seamless integration. Consumers do not buy seamless products, they buy products that appeal to them. One of the highlights of the presentation was an illustration of media content management. This was not promised as a product but showed a very slick interface on how photos could be managed using content and other attributes. Fumio Ohtsubo, President, Panasonic AVC Networks Company Panasonic showed innovative products and this is because it is a CE company. It is easy to play lip service to ease of use but an altogether different issue to implement in practice. Here the Japanese CE companies have also stumbled. It was interesting that Panasonic showed clips from focus groups and ‘ease of use’ was an important issue. The most interesting demo was that of 100Mb/s over power. This was done with two extension cords on stage. The data being transferred was HD. Paul Otellini, President and COO, Intel Intel announced an Entertainment PC. Intel is entering the display business with LCOS technology. Paul Otellini did a play on words with WiFi and stated that the digital house needed WiFi, Veri-Fi, High-Fi, Ampli-Fi and Simpli-Fi. All content would be stored on media servers with a user interface that would be simple, intuitive and easy to use. Paul Otellini embraced the need for IP protection and got stage support from Revelations Entertainment. The PC industry, as it takes on this new market, recognizes the “old way” will not work. The song has the words of seamless, simplify, reliable and no manual in it. Paul Otellini used the 2’ vs. 10’ interface to describe how Intel recognizes the attributes of the market and cited statistics that 1.5B CE products will be sold from 2004 to 2006. The expectations of the PC industry players are high and reflected in the videos shown by Intel with the message – we are here to get rid of the AV mess in your home. Carly Fiorina, Chairman and CEO, HP HP announced Digital Entertainment System and that it would be selling Digital Displays. Carly Fiorina went all out with the stage presence of Jimmy Iovine of Interscoope Geffen A&M records. Jimmy rolled out an impressive list of artists to demonstrate how committed he is to HPs efforts on IP protection. All felt good about the entertainers but no details given on how these omnipresent issues would be solved. Carly said that media could be delivered to any device anywhere. HP announced it will be making and selling a version of iPOD, interesting but hardly innovative. Michael Powell, Chairman FCC He is open, passionate and very knowledgeable. Here is a sample of his comments. The most fundamental change in the last 18 months was WiFi. Wires are an impediment to the deployment of technology. Think in terms of the 3S’s: During a recent trip to California I saw “RF dust.” These are small RF chips that can be scattered in a vineyard that report on the status of the vines. The chips can barely be seen on ones small finger. This is an example of the type of innovation we are seeing. Due to the impact of WiFi the FCC will make available more unlicensed spectrum available. We need to fundamentally rethink the concept of a spectrum license. It should be like a driver’s license. That is, a driver’s license does not mandate what type of car one drives but there are rules of use such as speed limits. Today spectrum licenses are so narrow that they force unnecessary reviews for trivial issues that have no meaningful impact. A spectrum licensee should be free to use the spectrum for voice, data or even relicense it. In VoIP all talk about phone service. Wake up – it is not about phone service. One can do most things anywhere. We must keep in mind that if we regulate VoIP it does not need to be in the US. Noting prevents a provider from dropping servers in Italy. We have had 100 years of regulation of the phone service. We cannot just extend such regulation to VoIP. One of the problems is that there is no way to tell if the bits are for phone or data or video. Recall that we have extensive regulations based on the type of service; 1,000’s of pages for phone, 1,000’s of pages for video, i.e., cable. If we regulate VoIP service it implies that we regulate these other types of services on the Internet. In the next year VoIP will be a hot issue. We need to avoid the duck mentality that says: if it sounds like a duck and walks like a duck we must regulate the duck. We should not ask Vonage to have a 30 person regulatory staff. VoIP brings lower costs to consumers and brings competition. One of the roles of government is to help set visions. We need to get past the trivial debates of regulation and deregulation. Products Shell HomeGenie Shell HomeGenie is slickly packaged. The appeal is as a home management system. Backed by technology from Motorola and using OSGi as a foundation this could have legs. We discussed the product with Shell. Why is Shell doing this? Retail purchase - $899 includes installation.
The Virtual Keyboard has this surreal quality about it. How can a red projected keyboard outline be real enough to allow typing? The target market is PDAs where a full keyboard experience is desired. A flat unobstructed surface is necessary. In front of the hands is a “tower” which holds the light source and detector of the hand movement. The unit runs off a LiOn battery that lasts for 4 hours. The unit plugs into the serial port but the next version will use the USB port and also charge the battery. The price is $99 and most sales are expected from retail as opposed to OEM. The Mousecaster The Mousecaster uses the mouse casing as an antenna for FM radio. The value of this approach is that the Mousecaster can be the source of radio content for the PC. Any radio can be tuned and then recorded on the PC. There are USB and PS/2 versions. A wheel mouse costs $29, while an optical mouse is $39. A cordless rechargeable mouse will be released shortly for $79. Keybowl makes orbitTouch– A Weird Keyboard The orbitTouch replaces a keyboard and mouse with two sculpted domes. This is great for the physically handicapped, but the product also demonstrates an innovative keyboard. What was shown at CES is the wireless version. Currently the wired versions sell for $699 and the pricing for the wireless version, due in Q2, 2004, remains TBD. Tablet PC like Computer without Tablet PC Windows XP Software Transmeta announced the UPC – Ultra-Personal Computer, as a means to sell its Efficeon and Crusoe processors. Transmeta expects to sell 350,000 units in 2004. The UPC is not expected to ship until Fall 2004, however, and the OEM list is underwhelming: Antelope Technologies, OQO and Vulcan. More important is that Pen&Internet, the company with extensive experience in hand writing recognition, has announced a version of ritePen for the UPC. This is to enable full screen writing and handwriting recognition on the UPC. The value proposition is that Transmeta can now offer something similar to the Windows XP Tablet Edition on the UPC using just Windows XP and ritePen. Interesting but not overwhelming. Eyetop Shows Centra Wearable LCD Video Screen There were crowds to wear this eyeglass like LCD display. The design was well done. It uses an AM LCD for 320 X 480 resolution. Input is via a RCA video jack. Pricing is $449 in the company web site. Deja Views Camwear – It was only a matter of time Tucked away in the corner of the tents was a wearable video and audio camera. One version clamps onto one’s glasses and the other to a baseball cap. This was the most interesting because the camera, about ¼” square, is just under the bill of the visor and hardly visible. The specs include: Supports up to a 512MB SD card A mark of the future came from a story told in the booth. One of the employees was stopped in a store on the beach in New Jersey when he was wearing the Camwear. A customer in the store customer accused him of taping his daughter – which he regarded as ridiculous. None-the-less the store operator made him take off the Camwear. ViXS Systems – Integrating Video with WiFi This booth was always packed. ViXS is a fables semiconductor company which makes video processors. There are two products: XCode II video processor that dynamically adjusts the video stream to fit the changing network bandwidth. As a result they claim a guaranteed 30f/s over any type of IP network. The Matrix is a dual channel 802.11a chip set which will support multiple HD streams to multiple devices in the home. Deals have been announced with Chi-Mei and Toshiba. The booth demonstrations were impressive. Logitech Orbit is Impressive Orbit is a face tracking video camera and has the following characteristics: 180 deg horizontal and 60 deg tilt; There is little new in the technology. But what was striking was the integration of function with design. It is cool. The booth was populated by themes. Mobil was one and Bluetooth was another. Logitech has made Bluetooth leadership a key element in their presence. Gyration On the side of the Gyration booth was a funny looking control next to a large screen. What struck us was its simplicity. The gyro probably replaced 15 buttons. The control was natural. Gyration hinted that many of the major Media PC companies are OEMs. This is the first time we have spoken with Gyration. The booth discussion included the following. The core of our products is a solid state gyro that took 10 years to develop. The focus of our marketing is in HID but we have inquiries to use the gyro module in other areas – such as the military. Resource constraints limit what we can do in these other areas, however. This is a hard business for a small company. We have 55 people and are growing. Yes, being the only company in a category – gyro mouse products – is difficult. Getting excellent product reviews allowed us to be stocked in the major distribution channels. The small keyboard, i.e., compact, has been very well received. The gyro mouse sells for $79, with the standard keyboard for $99 and with the compact keyboard $119. The bundled market has taken off - keyboards with our gyro mouse are doing very well. The media center controller is shipping now for $149. The suite with the keyboard is selling for $179. Wave Comments The digital revolution, as seen here at CES, is focused on leisure and media markets. This seems myopic. The home and home market is much deeper in that this is where the family lives. Media may be interesting but how time is spent in the home includes many activities such as schooling, raising children and family interaction. The PC companies are probably in a better position to see the larger context of the benefits it might be able to provide but this is not evident. Companies are seeking a digital makeover in the home – discard the old and bring in the new. For consumers to have a home digital makeover will only happen over time and possibly a long time. This is not the same as changing the entertainment infrastructure in the home. Yes, what is happening may be the foundation for the digital revolution in the home but it will be a much more difficult than that represented here at CES as PC companies seek to expand their core competencies to be viable and sustainable CE companies.
|
|||||||||||||||||
| Comments? |
||||||||||||||||||
