***WiMAX World 2004
By John Latta
Boston, MA
November 3 – 5, 2004
We had this gnawing feeling: Have we not seen this before?
The venue is packed;
There is excitement in the air;
The analysts have gushy predictions which lack substance;
There are no hard products – only pre products;
The silent hand of Intel is everywhere; and
When market reality hits is a guess.
Welcome to the world of wireless data, wireless IP, NLOS
broadband, mobile data and MANs. Confused – WiMAX will do it all.
WiMAX World
This is the first WiMAX event run by TrendsMedia for the WiMAX
Forum. There are 600 here and the turnout is impressive for a
first time event. It is like a well run machine. IBM paid for
lunch and had a captive audience to hear the same old “wireless
is wonderful” talk from the Global VP of Pervasive Wireless e-
business Solutions. To get dessert, one had to go to the exhibit
which just opened after the IBM presentation ended. It was like
bees to honey. Noting like Intel military precision.
Motorola did the same thing, food for a talk, when they gave a
breakfast pitch to explain why they are into WiMAX big time.
Bob Egan the President of Mobile Competency told us why WiMAX was
good. And then Dale Kutnick filled the air with vacuous words on
how the world is better when we show ROI in our enterprise sales
pitches.
Yet, as one hears the many questions during the sessions, the
obvious “Where is the beef?” pops up. Is this just a reality TV
show masking as a technical conference?
A Sampler
We are going to bypass the usual talk by talk blow by blow review
of this event. Frankly it would be boring and not get to some of
the core issues. At the same, time references will be made to the
talks as they provide insights.
WiMAX Forum and Mobility
On June 24, 802.16-2004 was approved. It was published by the
IEEE on October 1, 2004 and is a consolidation of 802.16a,
802.15c and task group d.
WiMAX Forum has still not announced the firm that will do the
testing compliance for 802.16-2004 and it is not clear what will
be required of the testing company for 802.16e.
In the standards update, we found that the schedule has slipped.
One of the reasons for the slip is the escalating number of tests
to be done to assure compliance. This has grown from 400 to over
800 and may need to reach 1,200. Thus during the first “wave” of
testing, April to June 2005 to determine product compliance, the
number of tests may be truncated. There will be three waves of
compliance testing that end in 2005.
This is complex technology and what the IEEE and WiMAX Forum are
attempting to do is what GSM has done over the last 10 years. In
actuality, WiMAX is more complex.
One of the questions from the audience was – will we know what
companies have submitted products for testing? In response, it
was stated that only the successful results will be released with
the tests are done.
802.16e adds the following to 802.16-2004: OFDMA, MIMO and 1024,
512 and 128 FFTs. It is unlikely that 802.16e will be compatible
with 802.16-2004. The IEEE standard for 802.16e is moving to
letter ballot and the first one is to take place this month,
November 2004. If this passes, the approval of the standard could
happen as early as March 30, 2005. The earliest the products can
make it to market would be end 2006 but more likely 2007.
The process to define the 802.16e profiles begins in January. It
is not clear if 802.16e profiles will support unlicensed
spectrum.
The upward mobility requirement for 802.16e is 160Km/h, which
makes this feasible for mobile broadband in a car.
The bands for usage of both 802.16-2004 and e are:
2.5GHz, 3.5GHz and 5.8GHz
Which bands that will be the focus of the testing, is the subject
of a survey of the members now being undertaken.
Monica Paolini, Senza Fili Consulting, gave one of the more
interesting perspectives of WiMAX mobility.
Yes, WiMAX is moving to mobility but this is years away. To make
a mobile network, it must be without holes. Further, roaming must
be supported both within 802.16e and with other networks,
including cellular and WiFi. This will take additional time.
One of the problems is that the best performance in mobility is
in bands <3HGz and to move into this region would require the use
of unlicensed spectrum. Another factor is that the licenses
companies gain for fixed services may not allow them to offer
mobile services.
Device availability for mobile access is a major issue. It is
expected that the costs will be high and that terminals which
support voice are even farther on the horizon.
Other technologies have a significant time to market advantage.
Listed were:
WiFi with 802.11n
802.11 mesh
EV-DO (EV-DV)
WCDMA (HSDPA)
Flarion Flash OFDM
ArrayComm iBurst
IPWireless UMTS-TDD
The WAVE asked Monica if there is a significant competitive
advantage for WiMAX to offer competitive voice using unlicensed
spectrum. She felt not so. WiMAX service providers must still
invest in the equipment and that competing cell phone service
providers costs are declining. Thus, to expect mobile voice based
on WiMAX to compete with cellular is beyond what is possible in
the next few years.
One of the major advantages of WiMAX is that it combines both
fixed and mobile services, however, how compatible these will be
at the equipment level, including the client devices, is an open
question.
It was concluded that standardization is only the first step to
mobility.
Towerstream stated that radio updates are coming about every 6
months. The performance is continuing to improve, especially in
NLOS coverage.
WiMAX Forum Pushes for Spectrum < 1GHz to Support Mobility
CPE Pricing is Critical
The importance of mobility to the WiMAX story was reinforced in
both the presentation by the President of the WiMAX Forum, also
from Intel, that showed the Forum seeking spectrum at low
frequencies, 400MHz to 900MHz for mobility. In addition to the
strong value of the propagation characteristics at these lower
frequencies, they could avoid the obstacles some operators face
at 3.5GHz where they are prohibited from offering mobile
services.
Over and over during the presentations, one of the most important
issues which WiMAX must address is the pricing of the CPE. Many
regard the $100 price point as essential and at the same time
having self-install modems. Yet, the only market estimate
provided did not show this barrier broken in a data-only CPE even
by 2008. The expectation of many is that competition will drive
down the price of the CPE, yet, there are conflicting views on
how and if this can be accomplished. In order to get the
necessary gain on the CPE for indoor placement it appears it must
have a smart antenna, which will add considerable cost. Yet, one
company said that such smart antennas would cost less.
Incoherence
The keynote address and many presentations were much more
informative. Yet, the price paid was lack of clarity. That is,
these questions remained extant.
Can WiMAX be cost effective for home broadband delivery?
What is the competitive landscape with WiFi and 3G?
Can WiMAX deliver a useful mobile service offering?
By every indication, it will only be the marketplace that can
address these issues. Put in another way, a significant
investment in infrastructure will be required to determine
viability in what is already a very competitive environment in
both the fixed and mobile markets.
WiMAX Forum Speaks
Rob Resnik, President and Chairman, WiMAX Forum gave the keynote.
This was largely the “stump speech.” Some interesting points:
The Forum membership is now at 170 members with 47 service
providers, 48 system manufacturers, 39 semiconductor
companies and 35 eco-system companies. Noticeable absent
are:
Arraycomm
Axcera
Broadcom
Cingular
Ericsson
Nokia
Qualcomm
Sony
T-Mobil
Verizon
Vodafone
The Forum is seeking companies with applications to joint
the Forum. This is an indication that broadband alone is not
enough to drive the process and market.
Shown as spectrum under 6GHz for possible use by WiMAX was
1.5 – 1.9GHz and 400 – 700MHz and 700-900MHz. Another
speaker stated that the Forum is working with regulators to
seek spectrum at these low frequencies for mobility.
Two important network definitions were made:
Portable – This does not have seamless mobility – Break
before Make
Mobile – Low packet loss handovers – Make before break
Competitive Market View
Adlane Fellah, Maravedis, gave an overview of the market for BWA
and WiMAX.
The current BWA market is $550m in 2004 with the dominant
player being Alvarion at 25% market share and the second
company SRTelecom with 12%.
40% of the systems are at 3.5GHz which is not available in
the US. The next largest is 5.2 – 5.8 GHz at 19%.
The major competitors for mobility are:
802.20/Flarion
TDD-CDMA
3G
It is estimated there will be 80m BWA subscribers by 2008.
The ASP of the CPE for data only will decline to $144 by
2008 and if telephony is added the CPE cost will be $367.
The ASP of the base station will decline to $33,000 by 2008.
The penetration of 802.16 equipment, compared to all BWA
equipment, was shown to approach 50% by 2008.
Tri-State Broadband – A WISP Doing it Now
Tri-State is a WISP in Atlanta, GA which has broadband wireless
installed in 12 rural areas. It is bullish on WiMAX.
The major concern of a WISP is truck rolls and CEP costs.
This can destroy the business.
A significant advantage of wireless is the ability to serve
rural areas but the in low density areas the distance of
coverage is an important factor.
At Tri-State, we believe that WiMAX will give us better
coverage including NLOS and it will lower the TCO by making
CPE more affordable and requiring fewer truck rolls.
Today our vendor of choice is NAVINI. They deliver 70% of
the WiMAX capabilities. Credit was given to NAVINI for their
smart antenna technology, synchronous CDMA and interference
cancellation.
Using a 300’ tower, a NLOS coverage map was shown. It was
colored by the reception conditions: Indoor install on desk,
indoor to window, outdoor and no coverage. Very insightful.
It would be informative to see the corresponding terrain
relief and foliage.
The local implementation in Adel, GA uses a 200’ tower,
services the community, provides police with wireless data
access all using 802.11 technology.
www.trisbb.com
www.southlink.us/
Alvarion – Cautions on Expectations
The VP of Marketing, Rudy Leser, gave a good overview of WiMAX
and one of the more technical presentations. He was also cautious
on expecting too much from the technology.
With 2m CPE installs in 130 countries servicing 2,000
customers no company has the reach that Alvarion
does.
WiMAX is positioned to provide mobile and broadband wireless
not being filled by any other technology. They called this
DSL on the move.
Its Breezemax product is intended to support WiMAX and can
be upgraded to support the standard – one of the so-called
pre-WiMAX products.
A key component of the WiMAX technology is the antenna
system requirements that include: beam forming, antenna
diversity, SDMA and MIMI. This will allow for indoor CPE and
no truck rolls.
There are excess expectations for data rate in mobile WiMAX.
A detailed table was shown for the data rates which WiMAX
can achieve under optimum conditions. It shows the tradeoffs
between the number of subscribers, data rate and area
coverage. Very useful.
The Mobile BWA was described as happening when there are
embedded chips in handheld devices. They estimated this at
2007 and later.
Mobile applications are expected to be Web browsing, email,
VPN, Video conferencing and VoIP.
Mobility speeds are up to 120km/h.
WiMAX vs. 3G vs. WiFi Panel
In large part the panel sought to show how each of these
technologies are independent. Fujitsu claimed that the processing
power in a WiMAX base station is 25% of that required by 3G. One
of the factors being that 3G supports undetectable handoff. WiMAX
was characterized as “public operator friendly” whatever that
means.
Airnet took a different position from all the companies at WiMAX
World. They are a provider of base station equipment for cellular
operators: GMS, EDGE and GPRS. The key is that this is claimed to
be the only commercially deployed SDR. Airnet’s view is that its
base station can be software upgraded to support both 802.16-2004
and 802.16e. Quite an accomplishment if it is done. This is an
early indicator of the power of SDR technology.
NAVINI touts its mission of Making Broadband Personal. It claims
the broadest selection of products in the bands: 2.0, 2.3, 2.4,
2.5, 2.6, 3.4 and 3.5 GHz. It also states it is the only company
that has commercially available “zero install” portable and mobil
broadband. It also provides equipment in licensed and unlicensed
bands. With more claims it is the “only firm focused completely
on 802.16e.”
WAVE Comments
We find it alarming that users, that is, those that will pay for
the WiMAX services, are totally missing from these discussions.
This smells like the Internet infrastructure debacle that
imploded.
We propose the following questions:
Who will pay for yet another broadband service?
Without a major nationwide buildout, would mobile WiMAX be
even worse in usability that WiFi?
How can WiMAX mobile achieve scale without the participation
of the major mobile carriers?
With the continuing buildout of DSL and Cable in the US, why
would anyone want to switch to WiMAX services?
There is a long, long way to go – and we plan to be there when
these areas are finally addressed.
Wave Issue 0502 1/14/05 Article 2-01