***DisplaySearch US FPD Conference Attracts Record Number of
Attendees - FPD Market is Upgraded, while Component Shortages are
a Concern
As Reported by DisplaySearch
Austin, Texas
April 6, 2004
The 6th Annual US FPD Conference was hosted by DisplaySearch last
week in San Diego, California, attracting over 405 attendees. The
conference examined all aspects of the FPD market ranging from
equipment and materials segments to end markets. Presentations
included results through calendar year 2003 and new forecasts to
2008. DisplaySearch analysts presented their extensive results in
many different market areas, with emphasis on component pricing,
supply and demand. The train of thought runs toward TV dominance
over LCD and other display forms in the next five years. More to
come.
DisplaySearch released an excellent summary of the conference
that we have adapted to the readers of the WAVE Report. Due to a
conflict, the WAVE Report could not attend this year's event,
which is consistently the top conference on the display
marketplace.
A number of new products and technologies were introduced and
discussed by a broad representation of the technological
developers and manufacturers of LCD, advanced TV and public
display components. A consensus clearly emerged that CRT
technology is overwhelmingly being supplanted by LCD and FPD
technology. In fact, there is a concerted effort to completely
and quickly eliminate the CRT as a display device for any
purpose. This cannot happen until the consistent high-resolution
capabilities that are inherent in CRT display can be completely
absorbed into the LCD component arena. However, conferences such
as this indicate that comparable and, in many cases, far greater
capabilities in LCD technology are already upon us.
First, some statistics. According to DisplaySearch, both the
near-term and out-year growth aspects of the FPD are very, very
promising:
The FPD market is expected to grow 17% from 2003 to 2008 reaching
$95.0 billion and an 84% share of the display module market.
Growth is expected to be even more impressive than was
experienced in 2003, rising at 25% through 2006. In 2004 alone,
the FPD market is expected to rise 39% to $59.9 billion after
already experiencing 48% growth to $43.1 billion in 2003.
2003 was an amazing year for TFT LCDs with five applications
enjoying more than 100% growth. TFT LCDs and PDPs are expected to
drive the growth through 2008, rising at 17% and 36%
respectively. TFT LCDs + AMOLEDs are expected to reach a dominant
$77 billion for an 81% share in 2008, up from $33.2 billion and a
77% share.
Significantly, TVs are expected to overtake desktop monitors as
the primary FPD application in 2006 and the primary TFT LCD
application in 2008. The FPD unit share of the TV market is
expected to rise from 4% in 2003 to 36% in 2008 while the FPD
revenue share is expected to rise from 18% in 2003 to 68% in
2008. FPD-based TVs, which includes LCD TVs, PDP TVs and micro
display-based TVs, are expected to rise 66% to 74M units. The
40"-plus TV market is expected to rise from 7.5 million units in
2004 to 23.5 million units in 2008 with micro display RPTVs
surpassing CRT RPTVs in 2006 and dominating from 2007.
In an analysis of the desktop monitor market by technology and
size, DisplaySearch presented the following:
While demand for TFT LCDs is robust, supply will rise even faster
with 16% more capacity expected to be installed in 2004 on a
square meter basis than from 2001 – 2003. This is combined with
an anticipated 73% growth in equipment spending in 2004 to a
record $11.3 billion. Significant spending is also expected in
2005 and 2006 that will grow the surplus. However, identified
component shortages in glass, color filters and lamps will cause
the component supply-limited TFT LCD surplus to remain quite
tight.
Component suppliers will likely struggle to keep up with TFT LCD
capacity growth as there are fewer suppliers in a given segment.
These suppliers tend to be smaller companies that may be unable
to raise the significant financing required to invest at the rate
of TFT LCD suppliers. They are concerned about vertical
integration, the fact that it is difficult for new entrants to
quickly meet the demanding technical requirements, and they may
be skeptical about the rapid growth expected for LCD TVs.
Although TFT LCD factory utilization is expected to decline for
suppliers without close ties to key component suppliers, the
importance of utilization will decline at larger substrate fabs
due to their productivity benefits while maintaining a healthy
long-term outlook for TFT LCD suppliers.
30 notebook and LCD monitor panel buyers rated 15 TFT LCD
suppliers in DisplaySearch's 4th Annual Customer Satisfaction
survey. Each buyer rated their suppliers by answering 25
questions covering five categories that include Quality,
Technology, Logistics, Commercial Terms and Service & Support.
The second-place panel suppliers in terms of volume in each
category were the winners in customer satisfaction. Samsung
earned the top position in LCD monitors with a slight advantage
over AU Optronics and LG.Philips LCD and won the top position in
notebook PCs with a slight lead over CPT.
A number of new products and technologies were introduced:
From Samsung, AMLCD Vice President Joe Virginia announced its
Super PVA technology for LCD TVs that widens viewing angles and
minimizes color shift. He also announced their new Accurate Color
Capture (ACC) technology to improve black levels and maximize
contrast. Samsung will invest $23 billion in the next ten years
at its new TFT LCD production site. Mr. Virginia also pushed for
the adoption of standards at 7th gen with the industry benefiting
by following Samsung's lead in terms of selecting substrate and
panel sizes. Samsung Vice President Peter Shin announced that it
is now in production of color filter on array (COA) technology
for notebook panels significantly improving brightness and
contrast. COA will also reduce power consumption and enable PVA-
mode notebook panels. The company demonstrated a 17" WXGA PVA-
mode COA panel at the expanded exhibit.
Toshiba America Senior Manager Masato Kemmochi introduced ultra-
light 10.4"-14.1" notebook panels from TMDisplay manufactured
with 0.3mm thin glass substrates. Commercial notebook PCs using
this technology were shown at the Toshiba booth in the exhibit.
E Ink Senior Marketing Manager Darren Bischoff unveiled the first
commercial implementation of electronic ink through the
demonstration of Sony's new e-Book reader named LIBRIe, renewing
interest in the promise of a paperless society.
Dr. Hiroaki Sugiura, Mitsubishi Electric Visual Systems Corp,
outlined the company's strategy to continue to improve the color
gamut of LCD monitors. This strategy will allow them to
outperform their CRT counterpart, the long time industry
benchmark for color performance and color matching.
Lumileds Vice President Mark Pugh announced the availability of
their Luxeon DCC, a fully assembled LED-based RGB light source
for LCD backlights. The backlight units are available in five
sizes for ranging from 5" to 18.1". The backlight provides
consistent brightness and color uniformity. The most important
attribute of LED based backlights is that they produce vibrant
color reproduction, expanding LCD color gamut to 105% of NTSC, as
much as 45% greater than conventional CCFL products and enabling
excellent LCD TV performance.
Orbotech Vice President Noam Cohen discussed the technology
behind their new AOI based "Optical Test" application. The
application employs real time scan data with high-resolution
video microscope images to classify fatal defects. Using AOI for
this function, Orbotech believes they can replace a large number
of full contact Opens & Short probe based testers and reduce
total array yield management spending by 30%.
Analog Devices Director of Visual Signaling Products Bill Bucklen
reaffirmed the longevity of analog interfaces in advanced digital
TV systems. He also discussed the need to migrate toward 10-bit
and 12-bit precision at both the input and output of the
electronics system. Mr. Bucklen introduced three new mixed signal
products:
ADV7402 - a multi-format video decoder with a twelve channel
input source multiplexer,
AD9880 - a 150MHz triple ADC with color space conversion and
integrated 150MHz HDMI, plus
ADAV430 - an advanced digital audio processor for ATV
applications.
Microsemi Vice President George Henry demonstrated a new visible
light sensor, the LX1970, that provides automatic brightness
control. This sensor approximates the human eye's spectral
response to boost the LCD TV viewing experience. In addition Mr.
Henry presented patented technologies to build flat panel
backlight power inverters satisfying numerous different design
criteria.
Silicon Image Vice President Parviz Kodhi introduced TMDS-Lite
for internal display interfacing. TMDS-Lite is a low power, low
swing and low-EMI version of TMDS. He claimed it was superior to
LVDS in terms of EMI, power consumption, jitter tolerance and
cable length, offered ultra HDTV bandwidth and color depth beyond
8-bits. The interface uses the same TMDS signaling of DVI and
HDMI. But it is also a superset of LVDS and can be operated in a
mode that is backward compatible with existing LVDS interfaces in
order to enable a smooth transition to the newer technology.
National Semiconductor Displays Group Chief Technical Officer
Nikhil Balram introduced their Point-to-Point Differential
Signaling (PPDS) interface solution for next generation intra-
panel interface architectures targeted at larger, higher
resolution panels. PPDS eliminates vias and multiple column
driver loads per data line, allows for the reduction of TTL
control signals and automatic de-skewing to improve the timing
margin. It also allows gamma curves to be programmed in the TCON
rather than hardwired. As a result, a simpler, lower cost board
can be adopted, display size can be increased, motion video is
improved, color temperature is more accurate and gamma can be
manually adjusted for each driver IC individually.
Philips Semiconductors Chief Architect of LCD TV solutions Dick
van den Broeke presented information on the company's new
TDA15500, a full function single chip A/V controller for LCD TV
applications. Using this IC it is possible to build a complete
low end LCD TV controller board requiring only external DRAM,
tuners, passive components and connectors.
Other highlights included bold predictions, recent technological
advances and useful data and analysis including:
Keynote and Apple VP of Hardware Products Greg Jozwiak discussed
the "hope and delusion" in the display system market classifying
media center PCs, handheld video players and non-innovative PC
companies entering the consumer electronics space as delusional.
He recommended that LCD manufacturers get back to basics by
reducing price and improving performance to drive CRTs out of the
market.
Citigroup's Director of Technology Investment Banking Son Nguyen
explained why TFT LCD suppliers are so attractive and what it
takes to be successful. He also explained that the smaller
players provide a profitable "price floor" for the larger players
and getting to the next generation a year ahead of competitors
can create 30% - 40% more value creating a strong incentive to
continue to invest.
Regarding LCD monitors, advanced TVs and public displays:
Jim Sanduski, Keynote and Vice President of Marketing at
Samsung's Visual Display Products Group, outlined his belief that
digital cable compatibility will give a significant boost to the
sales of both high definition displays and high definition and
digital content. Sanduski also saw microdisplay devices quickly
dominating RPTVs in the U.S.
Keynote and Japan Picture Quality and Technology Laboratory CEO
Jumpei Nakamura summarized the results of their comparative LCD
and PDP TV measurements showing that both LCD and PDP
manufacturers have made major progress in improving image
quality. He also revealed that there is still intense competition
among LCD makers to reduce color shift for off-axis viewing and
eliminate motion blurring. PDPs provide a broader color gamut and
great contrast in dark rooms, but need to reduce reflection of
ambient light and eliminate ghosting.
Scott Hardy of Dell revealed their strategy to continue to
dominate the desktop monitor market and their goals to
essentially remove CRT monitors from customer's consideration
sets. Displays are becoming such an integral part of Dell's
overall strategy that that a new Displays Line of Business has
been formed, which appears to be the first time a traditional PC
manufacturer has treated the display as more than just a
peripheral product. Dell is now recognizing it as one of the most
key elements in the overall computer and CE experience. Hardy
also reviewed Dell's considerable brand strength and customer
loyalty. Dell's customer research indicated willingness to buy CE
products from Dell. Hardy also urged the industry to move quickly
toward standardization in order to best deliver high quality
products at exceptional prices.
Building on its strategies put in place in previous years, Carl
Steudle, Vice President at LG.Philips LCD, outlined compelling
reasons for both corporations and consumers alike to consider
wide-aspect desktop monitors as their standard monitor for
mainstream computing going forward especially in the 17"W, 20"W
and 23"W categories.
CMO Associate Vice President Dr. CL Kuo revealed that they intend
to spend $9 billion over 5-years on TFT LCD capacity targeting
the TV market. He revealed their panel roadmap through 2005,
claimed their TV design wins have been rising and expressed
confidence in their ability to rapidly grow in this segment with
products ranging from 17" to more than 60".
The market strategy of one of the first Chinese companies to
enter in to the US market, SVA (Shanghai Video and Audio) the
largest CE company in China, was outlined by Mike Higgins COO of
SVA-USA.
Laura Kubisiak of Planar, revealed the company's strategy behind
its recent price decreases for medical diagnostic imaging
displays. These high resolution (3 megapixel to 5 megapixel)
displays have historically carried significant price deltas over
other, lower resolution "desktop" monitors. This is a paradigm
which Planar looks to change by significantly lowering pricing on
these technologies in an attempt to accelerate more wide-spread
use in diagnostic applications. This occurs as the medical
industry continues to look for economical ways to move from a
film based to a computer based environment.
Candace Peterson, Vice President of InFocus made a compelling
case for unexpectedly high microdisplay growth as well as
outlining why InFocus would fare well due to its ability to
respond more nimbly to opportunities compared with traditional CE
manufacturers.
John Long, Director of Consumer Products Marketing for Gateway,
shared a great deal of insight into Gateway's TV customer
profiles including demographics of their plasma TV customers.
Long also reviewed Gateway's mix of sales between retail
storefronts and their direct sales via their phone center and web
site. He also announced their plans to redirect their retail
efforts to third-party dealers.
Norman Bardsley, Director of Display Technology at DisplaySearch,
stressed the need for further measurements by independent
laboratories to evaluate quality and performance and announced
the inception of a program of tests that will be carried out by
Westar, in collaboration with DisplaySearch, covering rear-view
projection systems as well as LCDs and PDPs. Norman also stressed
the importance of reconciling conflicting standards across the
globe and the need for a better understanding of customer
preferences in front-of-screen performance. He recommended the
inclusion of photosensors to gauge the ambient light intensity,
with feedback systems to modify peak intensity and gray-scale
control. This will lead to better pictures and substantial power
savings.
Jim Noecker, Senior Digital Engineer at Plasmaco, explained his
belief that plasma displays provide the ideal technology for
HDTV, providing a fully digital signal path that faithfully
preserves the detail and dynamic range of HDTV video at all
viewing angles. Jim showed that the shortcomings of PDPs in some
public information applications have been addressed and will not
cause serious problems in home-entertainment applications.
Lifetimes are now over 60,000 hours, spanning 20 years under
normal usage patterns. Large-volume production and improvements
in drive electronics should lead to full support for 1080p
broadcasts and rapid declines in manufacturing costs.
Jin Im, Marketing Manager at LG Electronics, outlined the
aggressive expansion of PDP manufacturing lines in Korea. LGE
expects to produce 2.5M panels in 2005 to gain a 36% share of a
7M set market. Retail prices of HDTVs are expected to fall to $2K
for 42" and $3K for 50" sets, as the demand rises to 13M panels.
This demand will be encouraged by further improvements in
brightness, contrast and power consumption.
John Reder, Manager of the DLPTM Tabletop Television Business
Unit at Texas Instruments, reported that the U. S. market share
of the large screen TV market (over 40") captured by
microdisplay-based projection systems rose to over 20% in the 4th
quarter of 2003, up from less than 3% one year earlier. This
advance was due to high image quality and aggressive pricing.
Continuation of this trend may be limited temporarily by
shortages of key components, such as lamps and screens, but sales
of over 4M units are anticipated by 2007. Innovative optical
systems are enabling sets to be constructed with depths as low as
7" for 60" diagonal screens, and elegant designs mean that rear-
view projection systems achieve much of the aesthetic appeal of
flat panels.
Guido Voltolina, Marketing Manager for Display Technology
Operations at Intel, described the company strategy to market
their Liquid Crystal on Silicon (LCOS) technology, code named
"Cayley". The goal is to deliver superior image quality at a
lower price, enabling more people to afford a film-like, big-
screen HDTV experience. Targets are set to provide HDTV upgrades
at prices close to the current average for large CRT-TVs
(~$1500), although entry prices may be around $2000. Intel will
exploit their experience in silicon design and manufacture to
provide a family of chips for 1, 2 and 3-panel systems at both
720p and 1080p resolution. The drive circuits will be all-
digital, allowing a high level of integration and stable control
of light intensity and color. The light valves should be suitable
for use with the same lamps and screens used in existing
microdisplay TVs, although some of the intermediate optics must
be adapted. This development is a key component in Intel's
Digital Home strategy.
Siegfried Trinker, Director of Corporate Strategy at LG.Philips
Displays, stressed the growing divergence between two segments of
the TV market. Volume growth will be driven by emerging markets,
from 100M sets in 2003 to around 150M in 2009, at an average
price below $250. Value growth will occur predominantly in
advanced markets with the average price rising from $486 in 2003
to $625 in 2006. Innovation in CRT technologies will not cease
completely. For example, LPD is planning to introduce a "super-
slim" 32" CRT with wide aspect ratio and a depth of only 15",
that may provide a lower-cost alternative to RPTV.
Regarding FPD equipment and materials markets:
Corning Senior Vice President Donald McNaughton revealed that
Corning expects glass substrate demand to rise 50% from 2003 to
2006 to 920M square feet. To keep up with TFT LCD supply growth,
McNaughton announced that Corning and its joint venture Samsung
Corning have made investments of over $1 billion in Japan, Korea
and Taiwan.
Kent Lee, Vice President at Taiwanese color filter manufacturer
AMTC, announced that they are negotiating with several panel
manufacturers to provide color filter process technology. The
company will work with BOE Hydis in Beijing to supply 5th gen
color filters. AMTC suggested the biggest challenge for producing
TV type color filters are demanding color gamut requirements.
Color reproduction is driven by color resist specifications,
which should have high transmission at spectral peaks, strong
absorption at other wavelengths and a steep spectral profile.
Dr. Peter Le Masurier, Market Research Manager at leading liquid
crystal supplier Merck, suggested that with LCDs dominating the
FPD market, the current 100 ton per year liquid crystal demand
would increase to 300 ~ 400/tons per year around 2007.
Fuji Film explained that in addition to their dominate market
position for TAC and wide viewing angle films, the company also
provides anti-reflection films and color filter transfer film
technology. Fuji is helping to make LCD modules lower cost and
thinner with a new product that removes one TAC layer and
laminates the polarizer directly to wide viewing angle films.
Unaxis Displays Executive Vice President Ruurd Boomsma indicated
that in addition to strong PE-CVD business in 2004, they have
received a significant number of P/Os for array process
sputtering (PVD) tools. The company had nearly discontinued its
PVD business a couple years back, but now is being rewarded with
its decision to keep the business running through new design
wins.
Color filter sputter system maker Applied Films announced the
$14.5 million acquisition of the In-Line Division of Taiwan based
Helix Technology, Inc. The acquisition adds 50 employees to
Applied Films Taiwan staff, which is expected to reduce
manufacturing costs and further strengthen relationships with the
critical Taiwanese customer base.
In the final analysis, the conference presented a broad venue of
topics and industry speakers to address the ascendancy of LCD and
PDP, and the decline of traditional the CRT. While many of the
technical issues are being solved, concerns over raw material
supplies and adequate financing for small companies remains to be
completely solved. There is no doubt that the LCD market is
growing. Retail outlets and catalog suppliers don't include CRT
options for display products. Just as the demand for a desktop PC
is waning, replaced by the equally capable notebook, the movement
toward smaller-footprint, more compact computing and display
components is gathering momentum. And the LCD/PDP/TV display
industry is moving quickly to position itself for substantial
growth in the next five years.
DisplaySearch will be sponsoring three conferences in three
different countries in the next four months including:
· May 28, 7th DisplaySearch Japan Forum, Tokyo Conference
Center, Shinagawa, Japan.
· June 10 - 11, Taiwan FPD International Conference 2004,
Taiwan International Convention Center, Taipei, Taiwan,
co-sponsored by the Taiwan External Trade Development
Council and the Interchange Association of Japan.
· August 24 - 26, HDTV Forum 2004, Westin Century Plaza,
Los Angeles, California, co-sponsored by Insight Media.
For more information on any DisplaySearch conference, product or
service, please contact Kendra Smith at 512-459-3126 or by email
at kendra@displaysearch.com. The conference proceedings are now
available in hard copy and CD-ROM for $895 by visiting
www.displaysearch.com/usfpd2004/registration.html or
calling 512-459-3126.
Wave Issue 0413 /09/2004 Article 2-01