*** CES 2004
By John Latta
January 7-9
Las Vegas, Nevada
The 2004 International CES spanned 1.38 million net square feet
and brought together 129,000 industry professionals, 2,400
exhibiting companies and 18,000 international travelers from 110
countries. COMDEX has been left in the dust.
Keynotes
The PC industry needs another source of income in order to grow
when the PC sales are flat. The hot target is CE. Thus, there
were forceful presentations at this event by Microsoft, HP and
Intel. Overall we felt the presentation by Intel was the most
coherent.
Bill Gates, Microsoft
Bill Gates said the industry could now deliver on its promises to
consumers.
Microsoft has shown a path to this business with the Media PC and
the PC industry is embracing this. But we got tired of the phrase
– seamless integration. Consumers do not buy seamless products,
they buy products that appeal to them.
One of the highlights of the presentation was an illustration of
media content management. This was not promised as a product but
showed a very slick interface on how photos could be managed
using content and other attributes.
Fumio Ohtsubo, President, Panasonic AVC Networks Company
Panasonic showed innovative products and this is because it is a
CE company. It is easy to play lip service to ease of use but an
altogether different issue to implement in practice. Here the
Japanese CE companies have also stumbled. It was interesting that
Panasonic showed clips from focus groups and ‘ease of use’ was an
important issue. The most interesting demo was that of 100Mb/s
over power. This was done with two extension cords on stage. The
data being transferred was HD.
Paul Otellini, President and COO, Intel
Intel announced an Entertainment PC. Intel is entering the
display business with LCOS technology. Paul Otellini did a play
on words with WiFi and stated that the digital house needed WiFi,
Veri-Fi, High-Fi, Ampli-Fi and Simpli-Fi. All content would be
stored on media servers with a user interface that would be
simple, intuitive and easy to use. Paul Otellini embraced the
need for IP protection and got stage support from Revelations
Entertainment.
The PC industry, as it takes on this new market, recognizes the
“old way” will not work. The song has the words of seamless,
simplify, reliable and no manual in it. Paul Otellini used the 2’
vs. 10’ interface to describe how Intel recognizes the attributes
of the market and cited statistics that 1.5B CE products will be
sold from 2004 to 2006.
The expectations of the PC industry players are high and
reflected in the videos shown by Intel with the message – we are
here to get rid of the AV mess in your home.
Carly Fiorina, Chairman and CEO, HP
HP announced Digital Entertainment System and that it would be
selling Digital Displays.
Carly Fiorina went all out with the stage presence of Jimmy
Iovine of Interscoope Geffen A&M records. Jimmy rolled out an
impressive list of artists to demonstrate how committed he is to
HPs efforts on IP protection. All felt good about the
entertainers but no details given on how these omnipresent issues
would be solved.
Carly said that media could be delivered to any device anywhere.
HP announced it will be making and selling a version of iPOD,
interesting but hardly innovative.
Michael Powell, Chairman FCC
He is open, passionate and very knowledgeable. Here is a sample
of his comments.
The most fundamental change in the last 18 months was WiFi.
Wires are an impediment to the deployment of technology.
Think in terms of the 3S’s:
Silicon
Speed
Storage
These all change at rapid rates and redefine the role of
technology.
During a recent trip to California I saw “RF dust.” These
are small RF chips that can be scattered in a vineyard that
report on the status of the vines. The chips can barely be
seen on ones small finger. This is an example of the type of
innovation we are seeing.
Due to the impact of WiFi the FCC will make available more
unlicensed spectrum available. We need to fundamentally
rethink the concept of a spectrum license. It should be like
a driver’s license. That is, a driver’s license does not
mandate what type of car one drives but there are rules of
use such as speed limits. Today spectrum licenses are so
narrow that they force unnecessary reviews for trivial
issues that have no meaningful impact. A spectrum licensee
should be free to use the spectrum for voice, data or even
relicense it.
In VoIP all talk about phone service. Wake up – it is not
about phone service. One can do most things anywhere. We
must keep in mind that if we regulate VoIP it does not need
to be in the US. Noting prevents a provider from dropping
servers in Italy. We have had 100 years of regulation of the
phone service. We cannot just extend such regulation to
VoIP. One of the problems is that there is no way to tell if
the bits are for phone or data or video. Recall that we have
extensive regulations based on the type of service; 1,000’s
of pages for phone, 1,000’s of pages for video, i.e., cable.
If we regulate VoIP service it implies that we regulate
these other types of services on the Internet.
In the next year VoIP will be a hot issue. We need to avoid
the duck mentality that says: if it sounds like a duck and
walks like a duck we must regulate the duck. We should not
ask Vonage to have a 30 person regulatory staff. VoIP brings
lower costs to consumers and brings competition.
One of the roles of government is to help set visions. We
need to get past the trivial debates of regulation and
deregulation.
Products
Shell HomeGenie
Shell HomeGenie is slickly packaged. The appeal is as a home
management system. Backed by technology from Motorola and using
OSGi as a foundation this could have legs.
We discussed the product with Shell.
Why is Shell doing this?
This is an extension of Shell’s worldwide presence in energy.
Is this a platform?
Yes, we can offer more home sensors from Motorola.
Ah. What if a hospital came to offer a remotely managed
individual health monitoring system in a home that could
support a community? Would Shell be interested in this?
Maybe in the future.
Retail purchase - $899 includes installation.
Monthly cost - $24.95
Customer must have broadband connection.
iBIZ – Virtual Keyboard is ready to Launch
The Virtual Keyboard has this surreal quality about it. How can a
red projected keyboard outline be real enough to allow typing?
The target market is PDAs where a full keyboard experience is
desired. A flat unobstructed surface is necessary. In front of
the hands is a “tower” which holds the light source and detector
of the hand movement. The unit runs off a LiOn battery that lasts
for 4 hours. The unit plugs into the serial port but the next
version will use the USB port and also charge the battery.
The price is $99 and most sales are expected from retail as
opposed to OEM.
The Mousecaster
The Mousecaster uses the mouse casing as an antenna for FM radio.
The value of this approach is that the Mousecaster can be the
source of radio content for the PC. Any radio can be tuned and
then recorded on the PC. There are USB and PS/2 versions.
A wheel mouse costs $29, while an optical mouse is $39. A
cordless rechargeable mouse will be released shortly for $79.
Keybowl makes orbitTouch– A Weird Keyboard
The orbitTouch replaces a keyboard and mouse with two sculpted
domes. This is great for the physically handicapped, but the
product also demonstrates an innovative keyboard. What was shown
at CES is the wireless version.
Currently the wired versions sell for $699 and the pricing for
the wireless version, due in Q2, 2004, remains TBD.
Tablet PC like Computer without Tablet PC Windows XP Software
Transmeta announced the UPC – Ultra-Personal Computer, as a means
to sell its Efficeon and Crusoe processors. Transmeta expects to
sell 350,000 units in 2004. The UPC is not expected to ship until
Fall 2004, however, and the OEM list is underwhelming: Antelope
Technologies, OQO and Vulcan. More important is that
Pen&Internet, the company with extensive experience in hand
writing recognition, has announced a version of ritePen for the
UPC. This is to enable full screen writing and handwriting
recognition on the UPC. The value proposition is that Transmeta
can now offer something similar to the Windows XP Tablet Edition
on the UPC using just Windows XP and ritePen. Interesting but not
overwhelming.
Eyetop Shows Centra Wearable LCD Video Screen
There were crowds to wear this eyeglass like LCD display. The
design was well done. It uses an AM LCD for 320 X 480 resolution.
Input is via a RCA video jack.
Pricing is $449 in the company web site.
Deja Views Camwear – It was only a matter of time
Tucked away in the corner of the tents was a wearable video and
audio camera. One version clamps onto one’s glasses and the other
to a baseball cap. This was the most interesting because the
camera, about ¼” square, is just under the bill of the visor and
hardly visible. The specs include:
Supports up to a 512MB SD card
60 deg FOV
CIF Video
24 bits/pixel
16 bit audio
NTSC analog output
Cost $399
Shipping – March 2004
A mark of the future came from a story told in the booth. One of
the employees was stopped in a store on the beach in New Jersey
when he was wearing the Camwear. A customer in the store customer
accused him of taping his daughter – which he regarded as
ridiculous. None-the-less the store operator made him take off
the Camwear.
ViXS Systems – Integrating Video with WiFi
This booth was always packed. ViXS is a fables semiconductor
company which makes video processors. There are two products:
XCode II video processor that dynamically adjusts the video
stream to fit the changing network bandwidth. As a result they
claim a guaranteed 30f/s over any type of IP network. The Matrix
is a dual channel 802.11a chip set which will support multiple HD
streams to multiple devices in the home. Deals have been
announced with Chi-Mei and Toshiba. The booth demonstrations were
impressive.
Logitech Orbit is Impressive
Orbit is a face tracking video camera and has the following
characteristics:
180 deg horizontal and 60 deg tilt;
1.3m pixels
3X zoom
Automatic face tracking
Built in microphone
$130 retail
There is little new in the technology. But what was striking was
the integration of function with design. It is cool.
The booth was populated by themes. Mobil was one and Bluetooth
was another. Logitech has made Bluetooth leadership a key element
in their presence.
Gyration
On the side of the Gyration booth was a funny looking control
next to a large screen. What struck us was its simplicity. The
gyro probably replaced 15 buttons. The control was natural.
Gyration hinted that many of the major Media PC companies are
OEMs.
This is the first time we have spoken with Gyration. The booth
discussion included the following.
The core of our products is a solid state gyro that took 10
years to develop. The focus of our marketing is in HID but
we have inquiries to use the gyro module in other areas –
such as the military. Resource constraints limit what we can
do in these other areas, however.
This is a hard business for a small company. We have 55
people and are growing. Yes, being the only company in a
category – gyro mouse products – is difficult. Getting
excellent product reviews allowed us to be stocked in the
major distribution channels.
The small keyboard, i.e., compact, has been very well
received. The gyro mouse sells for $79, with the standard
keyboard for $99 and with the compact keyboard $119. The
bundled market has taken off - keyboards with our gyro mouse
are doing very well.
The media center controller is shipping now for $149. The
suite with the keyboard is selling for $179.
Wave Comments
The digital revolution, as seen here at CES, is focused on
leisure and media markets. This seems myopic. The home and home
market is much deeper in that this is where the family lives.
Media may be interesting but how time is spent in the home
includes many activities such as schooling, raising children and
family interaction. The PC companies are probably in a better
position to see the larger context of the benefits it might be
able to provide but this is not evident.
Companies are seeking a digital makeover in the home – discard
the old and bring in the new. For consumers to have a home
digital makeover will only happen over time and possibly a long
time. This is not the same as changing the entertainment
infrastructure in the home. Yes, what is happening may be the
foundation for the digital revolution in the home but it will be
a much more difficult than that represented here at CES as PC
companies seek to expand their core competencies to be viable and
sustainable CE companies.
Wave Issue 0348 01/30/04 Article 2-01