***COMNET 2002
(January 28-31)
By James Sneeringer
COMNET is an annual communications and networking conference and
expo in Washington DC. This conference is right in our backyard,
and we have attended it for several years. This year was marked
by a significantly lower turnout than last year's, in exhibitors,
programs, and attendees. The expo floor plan was noticeably more
open (due to fewer booths), and it was never hard to find a seat
at the presentations. This was hardly surprising considering the
depressed telecom market.
Being in DC makes it easy to book members of government as
speakers, and COMNET has traditionally been a good place to gain
insight into the regulation of telecommunications. This year was
no different, with two hour-plus panel sessions on the current
state and future of telecom regulation in the US and elsewhere.
While at the conference, we attended several keynotes and
sessions, and walked the expo floor.
Keynotes
Ivan Seidenberg, President and co-CEO, Verizon Communications
Seidenberg stated that over the last 10 years, the telecom
companies have moved into the role of IT leaders, due to their
lead in capital expenditure and number of customers. Verizon's
goal now, he stated, was to drive high-speed access to every
consumer, either with 3G phone service or with increased DSL
capacity. Verizon rolled out their 1xRTT phone service on Monday;
Seidenberg stated speeds will reach 56 to 70 kb/sec across that
connection, and that service will be available to a substantial
percent of the east coast by the end of 2002. During questions he
admitted he was still frustrated with the both the quality of
service and the lack of applications for Verizon DSL offerings.
His comments on public policy towed the ILEC line, that the
Congress must relax unbundling requirements to stimulate
investment. He stated that Verizon sees no reasonable return on
investment (ROI) from fiber installation, due to the requirements
that they be open for use by CLECs (competitive local exchange
carriers).
When asked if he was worried about cable voice offerings, he
stated yes, but that cable companies do not reach business
customers as Verizon does, or have competency at the complicated
billing associated with voice.
www.verizon.com
Patrick Nettles, Executive Chairman, CIENA Corp.
CIENA manufactures optical networking equipment. Nettles' address
focused on the financial basis for moving to next generation
optical networking, and as a precursor he presented a very
thorough discussion of financial indicators that can be used to
gauge the extent of market recovery. Overall the outlook now is
mixed, he stated, with some indicators, such as stabilizing
equipment levels and capital expenditure to revenue ratios,
pointing to a recovery soon. Other indicators, though, such as
bond default and bankruptcy levels, point to continued
depression. Most of the slides can be seen in an earlier
presentation on the CIENA site, in Adobe PDF format:
www.ciena.com/downloads/investors/CIR011501web.pdf
During questions, Nettles stated that for ILECs, voice over
packet (VOIP) is most likely just a detail, rather than driving
investment. Since voice is not growing, he asked, why would ILECs
spend large amounts of money to replace existing infrastructure
that is already paid for? Space requirements will probably be the
driver--as ILECs need space in central offices, they will replace
big voice switches with data-centric versions that are one-tenth
the size.
Dr. Ian Foster, Head of Distributed Computing Lab, Argonne
National Lab, and Professor of Computer Science, University of
Chicago
Grid computing is a system of distributed computing, in which
anywhere from several to thousands of individual machines are
networked to create virtual computing systems. Resource sharing
and service management is automated. The technology is in its
infancy, and currently used mostly for science applications, such
as linking thousands of computers to analyze chemical compounds.
It could have multiple applications in e-business in the future,
according to Foster, including complex data mining, load
balancing, and creating computing "utilities" that can allocate
and sell computing power on-demand.
During the talk Foster announced version 3.0 of a grid computing
toolkit called Globus. Globus, and grid computing thus far, is
both open-source and open-architecture. The hope is that Globus
will provide the technological backbone, and industry will add
value with outsourcing, support contracting, and applications.
More information can be found at:
www.gridforum.org
www.globus.org
Sessions
Town Meeting: What's Ahead in Communications Policy and
Regulation?
This panel consisted of representatives from the National
Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA), State
Department, FCC, and House of Representatives Energy and Commerce
Committee. The moderator was excellent, leading the panel through
most of the major issues in telecom regulation today.
National Broadband Policy
Nancy Victory, Administrator of the NTIA, stated that while the
Bush administration is focused on the importance of broadband,
they have no time table set for announcing a national policy. The
administration has met with hundreds of groups and received about
100 responses to a request for comments, and the NTIA is studying
the question of the appropriate role for the government. Kevin
Martin, an FCC commissioner, also stated that the FCC has several
open proceedings to address subjects such as deregulation,
national performance measurements, and unbundling rules. He
stated the commission hopes to have answers on many of the open
issues within six to nine months.
Tauzin-Dingell Bill
Andrew Levin, a staff member on House Energy and Commerce
Committee, stated that it was likely that Tauzin-Dingell would
pass the House but fail in the Senate this year. He believes it
could pass Congress within the next 2 years. He also stated that
there is some congressional support for other initiatives to
encourage broadband growth, including a tax credit, bonus
depreciation for high-tech investment, and extending the
universal service concept to include broadband. He did not
elaborate on how much support each idea had.
The goal of Tauzin-Dingell, according to Levin, is regulatory
parity. He stated that cable and ILECs are regulated under the
1996 Telecom Act according to what they used to do: video
distribution and local telephony, respectively. Now that both
offer data connectivity, many members of Congress feel it is
appropriate to level the playing field. Kevin Martin (FCC) warned
that the concept of parity can also mean increasing regulations
on the cable industry; but he would be wary of additional
regulatory burdens squashing investment.
3G and Spectrum
Nancy Victory (NTIA) stated that since the fall, the FCC has been
investigating opening up some existing bands, to provide more
spectrum for 3G. These include both government and other bands
(she did not elaborate), and either sharing them with 3G, or
moving the incumbent licensees out to other slices of spectrum.
They are hoping to finish the assessment by late spring.
Andrew Levin (House E&C Committee) questioned whether 3G is a
high priority for some members in Congress. They believe,
according to Levin, that the applications are not here yet, and
that the spectrum would be better used to improve voice wireless,
to increase competition for local voice services. He stated that
some members want to see increased efficiency from carriers in
using their current spectrum allocation, by using smaller cells
and killing analog service, before allocating any new spectrum.
ILEC Long Distance and Telecom Investment
Several ILECs have been approved to offer long distance service
in recent months, after meeting requirements set forth in Section
271 of the 1996 Telecom Act. David Gross, Deputy Assistant
Secretary for International Communications and Information Policy
at the State Department, said as more ILECs meet Section 271
requirements in more states, mergers are inevitable, both foreign
and domestic. There are national security ramifications to this.
Andrew Levin (House E&C Committee) clarified that foreign
investment is fine, as long as a government does not control the
foreign company. Members of Congress will expect telecom mergers
to be closely scrutinized by the executive branch.
FCC and Return on Investment
In response to a question from the audience, Kevin Martin stated
that the FCC must be aware of the impact its policies have on
financial markets, but stressed that specific markets or
companies will not receive special consideration as a result.
The State of Telecom Regulation in the US
This was another panel discussion the following day. Present were
representatives from the Association of Local Telecommunication
Services (ALTS), representing the CLECs (competitive local
exchange carriers), the New America Foundation, a policy think-
tank, the U.S. Telecommunications Association (USTA),
representing the ILECs, and the Yankee Group, a telecom
consulting firm. They touched on many of the same issues as the
previous day's presentation, though the discussion was a bit more
spirited.
National Broadband Policy
Opinions on the State of the Union address ranged from disbelief
Bush did not mention broadband, to belief that it would have been
inappropriate in what was essentially a war speech. Karen
Kornbluh, a Fellow at the New America Foundation, stated that
until a critical number of people have broadband, growth and
application development would be slow. For example, what good is
a teleconferencing app. if only 1/4 of the people for the meeting
have broadband? Karen believes that a big national announcement
about broadband might have a positive effect on take-up rates,
bringing us closer to the magic number of users.
Tauzin-Dingell Bill
With CLEC and ILEC reps at the same table, this dominated the
conversation--although little new was said. Jonathon Askin,
General Counsel of ALTS, stated that ILECs thrive on regulatory
chaos to maintain their monopoly--when uncertainty looms, many
customers perceive the big companies to be more stable. Tauzin-
Dingell, he stated, helps the ILECs whether or not it passes, by
creating a whole new round of regulatory uncertainty. The
continued debate serves the ILECs.
In response to a question from the audience--who is taking what
sides on Tauzin-Dingell, the consensus answer was:
Anti Tauzin-Dingell: CLECs, cable providers, long distance
providers
Pro Tauzin-Dingell: ILECs
FCC and Return on Investment
Despite the opposition, Tauzin-Dingell continues to gain traction
in Congress. An important reason for this is the perception that
passing it will stimulate a new round of investment in broadband
by the ILECs, by removing the financial burden of unbundling.
Berge Ayvazian, CEO of the Yankee Group, pointed out that the
jury is still out on whether unburdening the ILECs, or increased
competition, would produce the best growth in investment. Dan
Fiffien, of the USTA, responded that the ILECs' greatest fear is
that the FCC will disregard the effect of its decisions on return
on investment. Karen Kornbluh (New America) warned that the
answer might not be deregulation of the ILECs, but rather a
change in regulation, which could be very complicated.
Firewalls: Securing the Network from the Gateway to the Desktop
David Strom led this session, which covered the basics of the
four types of firewalls: high availability hardware for
enterprise, colocation hardware for service providers, soho
hardware for the small business and broadband customer, and
desktop software firewalls to protect individual PCs. There were
two interesting details from this session. First, Strom
emphasized that cable broadband IP addresses are giant targets
for hackers. He stated strongly that anyone with a cable modem,
who cares about security, should have a soho unit between their
computer and the cable modem. Second, Strom described an emerging
firewall product: firewall on a card. This is a complete hardware
firewall--processor, memory, everything--contained on a PC
expansion card. Seems like a great way to conserve space. These
are not hand-holders, though--one must have expertise to
configure them properly. Two companies he mentioned are Merilus
and Omnicluster.
www.merilus.com/
www.omnicluster.com/
On the Expo Floor
Canon Canobeam
This is an infrared optical wireless broadband product from
Canon. Ranges are from 500 meters to 2 kilometers, and data rates
from OC3 to 1 gigabit/sec. Haze does not affect it but fog might;
they stated the general rule is that the system can see about
twice as far as the human eye. There is a dynamic tracking
feature available that can account for 2 degrees of movement in
any direction, to maintain the beam.
The Canobeam system was started about 10 years ago, and an early
application was linking broadcast TV camera feeds to uplink
trucks over distance. Today most customers are either
universities and businesses, for building-to-building
connectivity, or ISPs, to close a fiber loop. Canon has noticed a
slight uptick in interest since September 11, "as companies dust
off their disaster recovery plans." Canobeam systems are being
used both for redundant links, and for quick-deploy back-up. The
system seemed quite easy to set up. Prices are for pairs of
units, and range from $16,500 to $48,500, depending on data rates
and effective distance.
www.canobeam.com/
Comcast Business Communications
This provider of data services to businesses is a wholly owned
subsidiary of Comcast Cable. They deal exclusively in fiber to
the business, which, it was stated, often involves construction.
Not a cheap install. They have been in business for a little
under 5 years, starting in Philadelphia. They stated the size of
their business customer ranges from $2000 to $100,000 per month,
with a minimum traffic of about 2 T1's. They are strictly local;
long haul connectivity is handled with peering arrangements. It
was interesting to hear how a cable provider is going after
enterprise--customers which are perceived by many as belonging to
the ILECs.
www.comcastbusiness.com/
Metallic Power
This is a very interesting technology, still in development:
regenerative zinc fuel cells. Like a hydrogen fuel cell, zinc
fuel cells generate electricity by combining the fuel (zinc) with
oxygen in the presence of an electrolyte. Once the fuel is
depleted, the process can be reversed by using electric power to
separate the oxygen and zinc, and recover the fuel to be used
again. Metallic Power states several advantages to the system
they are developing:
- zinc has a much higher energy density (electric power generated
per unit of volume) than either hydrogen fuel cells or lead-acid
batteries
- zinc is non-toxic and non-flammable, unlike hydrogen or
gasoline (for a generator)
- the fuel can be used, recovered, and reused indefinitely
- it is a low maintenance, sealed system
- the zinc does not have to pressurized (unlike hydrogen)
Metallic Power is currently developing a rack-based UPS
(uninterrupted power supply) for the networking and telecom
industries. They predict it will be able to generate 2 kW of 48V
DC or 120V AC for 4-8 hours, at any temperature between 32 and
100 degrees F. Compare this to the less than half an hour of
power most UPS units are capable of. They plan to ship the first
order by the end of 2002. A major hurdle is durability; currently
the oxygen exchange membrane fails after about 500 hours of
cumulative load, although they believe that number will go up.
Something to keep an eye on.
www.metallicpower.com/
Zone Digital Video Systems
This company produces a networked, plug-in digital video
surveillance system, but the head turner is their prototype
facial recognition software. It is capable capturing one
frameshot of a face per second from digital video, compressing
that face, and comparing it to a database of known faces. It was
able to produce identity matches in less than 2 seconds while I
watched. The prototype was stand-alone, but they plan to
integrate the facial recognition technology with the networked
digital video system.
www.zoneproducts.com
ReefEdge
ReefEdge manufactures management and security tools for 802.11b
wireless networks. Wireless LAN security is a hot topic
currently, and was mentioned in at least two of the sessions we
attended. Several security experts spoke of driving through
business districts with an 802.11b antenna and sniffer program on
a laptop, picking up literally dozens of networks, many of which
were not properly secured.
ReefEdge laid out the following product description:
When installed, a ReefEdge Connect Bridge sits at each hub for
the wireless access points (the base station antenna units), and
a Connect Server sits on the wired network. When a user enters
the network, the Connect Server handles authentication (can be
used with existing authentication servers such as NT), then
passes the session to the nearest Connect Bridge. Once
authenticated, all traffic between the bridge and the user is
encrypted via IPSec. Outgoing traffic from the user is decrypted
at the bridge, to preserve network bandwidth. As the user moves
throughout the system, the session is passed directly from Bridge
to Bridge; it does not pass through the Server. Thus scaling the
system is simply a matter of adding more Bridges and antennae.
www.reefedge.com/
Wave Issue 0203 2/02/02 Article 2-01