***Liberating the Local Loop
(March 16)
According to Ovum, the number of local loop lines installed
worldwide will grow from 72 million during 1998 to 195 million by
2005.
Growth is expected to be so brisk, reports Ovum, that the $23
billion world players spent on access technologies in 1998 will
increase to $50 billion by 2005 - if competitive barriers to the
local loop are adequately removed, that is.
According to Ovum's report "The Future of the Local Loop: Markets
and Strategies," the narrowband local loop market in Europe will
fall quickly after peaking at 60 million new lines in 2003. But
Europe's broadband market will grow steadily with over 23 million
new lines installed by the same year.
In North and South America, a petering out of the Asia-Pacific
currency crisis this year will result in a broadband line bonanza
- growing from just under 2 million new broadband lines installed
in 1998 to more than 20 million by 2005.
New Broadband Lines Installed Worldwide (Millions)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Fiber to 3.50 3.50 5.10 6.8 8.0 10.0 13.0 17.0
the customer
ADSL 0.18 0.23 0.59 1.30 3.30 7.40 15.0 27.0
FTTC/VDSL 0.04 0.10 0.20 0.26 0.30 0.36 0.24 0.19
Cable modems 0.10 0.16 0.40 0.78 2.01 4.40 9.90 18.0
Broadband 0.17 0.64 1.90 2.70 3.50 3.70 4.70 6.20
wireless
In the United States, FCC officials recognize growth in broadband
markets, and competition in general, will be stunted unless
something is done to provide competitive local exchange carriers
full access to the local loop.
But it is an uphill battle. To gain the access they need,
competitors need to be able to collocate their equipment in
incumbents' central offices - something they have fought tooth
and nail against since the inception of the '96 Telecom Act.
At a recent media roundtable FCC Chairman William Kennard defined
collocation as "a serious problem" and said that he hears lots of
lamenting about collocation.
And with the advent of DSL deployment from all quarters - CLECs
and incumbents alike - the pressure has been turned up a notch
for FCC officials to guarantee competitors fair and affordable
access to the local loop.
Wave Issue 9037 4/07/99 Article 9-01