***Conference Report - Computer Game Developers' Conference
by John Latta and David Lohse
The 11th Computer Game Developers' Conference was an outstanding event. 3D
was the buzz in the sessions, on the floor and in the halls. This is
where the technology and product advocates (chip companies, API
developers, authoring tool companies, platform companies and OEMs) court
the content developers. Game developers are a Wild West bunch who work
all hours, party and there are many who dress and appear outside of the
main stream - even in Silicon Valley. 5,000 attendees crowded into an
over burdened hotel and Santa Clara Convention Center. Next year it moves
to Long Beach. The plan is to alternate between the SFO and LA in
alternate years.
The OpenGL vs. Direct3D API for games debate still rages. We went to
several sessions on OpenGL and they were all packed. In the informal
sessions OpenGL was a much debated topic. Yet, we could not determine if
the game community is serious about creating titles for OpenGL. It seems
the bigger issue among developers - should they do a title which runs
only with 3D accelerators for 1997? We saw a small but increasing level
of commitment to "acceleration only" titles.
In a number of sessions another hot topic was, will 1997 be the year of
shake out in online games? Dogged by uncertain business models companies
are trying to find a niche which will be self sustaining. A proposition
which looks all the more difficult.
Presentation - Mark Pierce - Coin-Op Arcade Games
Mark Pierce is Senior VP & Executive Producer for Coin-Op Product
Development at Atari Games. He has many years experience in developing
and managing the development of coin-op games. He is working on a book on
the coin-op industry and many of his insights came from his research and
experience.
The domestic sales of coin-op equipment are approximately $150M. The coin
drop is approximately $2.5B in the U.S. and $3.5B worldwide.
He sees coin-op as the most difficult interactive entertainment venues
where the players must have satisfaction in the play in 90 seconds with
no manual or tutorial. A game "lives or dies based on the attraction of
the game and its initial play." Game development costs run from $500,000
to $4M.
In the U.S. the number of leading distributors of games is approximately
40 and one of their most important roles is to provide financing to the
operators. The typical distributor mark-up is 10% to 18%. A system which
costs a distributor $3,000 will sell to the operator from $3,400 to
$3,600. Kits, an upgrade of the electronics for an existing game, will
sell based on the title. For example, a leading title by Atari, Area 51,
sold new for $3,200 and will go in a kit for $2,100.
Many of today's operators have been in business for 10 - 20 years. A
typical standup game will cost an operator $4,000 and that amount should
be recovered in 6 - 8 weeks in coin-drop if the game is to be successful.
This is not what the operator receives because most machines are on an
income split basis with the owner of the location. Thus, in terms of
actual operator income they would like for the machine to cover its costs
in 8 - 20 weeks.
A hit will sell 10,000 units. To a manufacturer who sells to a
distributor the gross income is $30M and of that 1/3 is profit. Atari's
Crusin did very well and sold 23,000 units. The best selling game of all
time was Ms Pac Man which sold 126,000 units and it is felt that there
were 100,000 illegal copies also sold. Mark compared this to games for
the home where a title, across all SKUs and platforms (PC and home video
game), could sell up to 500,000 units. The consumer sales can reach from
$25M to $100M per title. With a successful consumer title the income is
"mostly profit" after the development costs have been written off. In
contrast he described "...coin-op as not being far from a loss-leader."
The number of street locations is estimated at 60,000 - 80,000 in the US.
A good game will make $100/week. There are 9,000 to 13,000 arcades in the
U.S. and each have from 20 - 40 games which average in income from $95 -
$200/week. A top ten title will gross $300 - $900/week.
The peak year for the arcade business was from 1979 to 1981 when the cash
box was $6B and this was higher than movies.
FEC's, Family Entertainment Centers, are the breeding grounds for new
interactive entertainment. In 1996 there were approximately 2,700 of them
and they are located near large population centers. Most offer large,
expensive attractions and expensive prices.
Mark was negative about VR and stated that "VR never made money in
arcades - don't ask me about goggles."
Arcade game design was described as a special talent which is only passed
on as an oral tradition. He stated that "...maybe only a dozen individuals
can make a good arcade game." The game design rules he cited include:
*The game must be visually compelling - there must be an attract mode
*The game must involve an idea of death
*The game must have a representation of "violence" but this need not
be actual violence
*The game needs obstacles which increase the vulnerability to the
"violence" that causes "death"
*There needs to be a representation of self which imparts a feeling
of power
*The player should have the ability to control visually compelling
action
*The game must be easy to learn and hard to master
*The game must contain both random events and learning patterns
*The game must require interactive coordinated physical response to
cues
*Experience must be proportioned to short scaleable segments
*The game must have some novel concept or hook
Mark classified all games into seven genres:
Classics including puzzle games
Driving Games
Gun Games
Science Fiction Shooting
Action games (Shootter and scroller games)
Fishing
Sports
Presentation - Lee Isgur - Status of the Interactive Entertainment
Software Industry
Lee Isgur, Managing Director of Corporate Counselors in New York, gave
interesting statistics:
1997 Hardware Units - Video games (>= 32bit) 47%, PC 53%
1997 Hardware $ - Video games 8%, PC 92%
1997 Software Units - Video games 60%, PC 40%
1997 Software $ - Video games 30%, PC 16% and Coin-Op Drop 56%
He described 1996 as a good and bad news year for PC game software. While
a number of titles were able to sell 100,000 units at full price
(unbundled) the critical industry issue is that there are too many titles
- estimated to be 4,000+. He believes that less than 50 sold above
100,000 units. Thus, even a weak platform such as Sega Saturn with an
installed base of 1.6M units could offer a better potential market (unit
sales/title) than the PC in spite of the fact that there are more than
10X the number of PCs over Saturn. The PC market continued to be
difficult to create winners when not a single PC title in 1996 achieved
as much as 1/2 the first year success of Myst or Doom the prior year. In
spite of the prospect of the PC, home video game unit and $ sales for the
N64, PlayStation and Saturn, are substantially higher than those for the
PC.
In spite of a confusing market Lee was optimistic on its growth. He
described the market today as being larger than it was 5 years ago for
the following reasons:
There are a greater number of people capable of using interactive
entertainment.
There are a greater number of consumers who are purchasing
interactive entertainment software.
There is a greater number of households with one or more interactive
platforms in active use.
The geographic spread of consumer interactive software as a form of
mass media.
The number of consumer interactive software titles that are being
published annually has increased.
The number of units of consumer interactive software being bought
annually is increasing.
Lee was most bullish on the increasing number of individuals who he
described as Interactive Literate. This could create up to 80M+ consumers
by the year 2020.
Panel - Jon Peddie and Others - 3D Games Aren't Really 3D Until They Use
3D Hardware
Jon Peddie was the moderator of a panel which included Microsoft,
Rendition, 3Dfx and others. He began by giving a short presentation on
the market. Jon cited his statistics that there were 14M 3D chips shipped
in 1996 and he expects that 40M will be shipped in 1997 (We regard these
numbers as high.) Jon then chastised the audience of game developers for
not targeting this installed base and asked that they "get off the dime."
Some developers considered this a cheap shot. One shouted back from the
floor that those chips were poor, they did not provide enough advantage
over software, and that the API they had to use was also poor.
A spirited panel discussion ensued along with shouting from the audience.
A number of key points were also made by the panel members.
3Dfx reiterated its position that the minimum frame rate for games will
be 30f/s and the coming standard will be 60f/s. (This observation is
consistent with the experience in flight simulator development where
60f/s is essential. We heard a number of comments during the conference
that there is a demonstrable difference in the play quality as one goes
from 30f/s to 60f/s.)
Microsoft disclosed that a number of companies had licensed Talisman
technology. They also disclosed that 3D Baseball was originally targeted
for Talisman but now that "this has shifted" it will not immediately
support Talisman.
3Dfx stated that they can "achieve Talisman (performance) without a
substantial change in present technology." While Rendition believes that
"we can meet Talisman performance without Talisman technology and at OEM
price points."
The prospect of Intel's 740 chip (the Auburn 3D and 2D accelerator) came
up when Jon Peddie asked if "...it is a threat to the industry? Is it good
enough?" In response the audience gave its negative assessment.
When asked where the feature performance priorities are the panel
responded that fill rate is the highest followed by on-chip set up.
Presentation - Murali Sundaresan (3Dfx) - High Performance 3D Graphics on
a PC
Using a deadpan delivery with humorous drop-offs Murali gave one of the
best presentations at the conference. He began by stating that he was
asked to show at 3Dfx how 1M p/s could be achieved on a Pentium chip. The
paper began with an overview of the analysis of the number of
instructions to do geometry and lighting on a Pentium - 55 instructions.
The tools, all the way to a logic analyzer, were reviewed to allow for
measurements that would be made on the system. Murali then proceeded to
review a series of tests that showed that independent of what he did the
answer was always 600,000 p/s, yet, there was no apparent reason why the
1M p/s rate should not be achievable. The last test found the answer -
the Pentium L1 cache would fill up with vertices and when full this data
would be written back to either the L2 cache or system memory. During
write back the processor is locked and this is wasted time with no
productive processing being done. One way to address this problem is to
partition the geometry data so that vertex information only occupies 1/2
the cache and static data the other 1/2. It was also concluded that the API
could manage the data flow into the L1 cache to help alleviate the
problem. When it was stated from the audience that AGP has no impact on
this issue Murali confirmed it.
Points to Ponder
We begin first with our comments on the presentation by Murali
Sundaresan.
3Dlabs has often spoken of the limitations in geometry processing
performance imposed by the host processor and 3Dfx has shown explicitly
why. Game developers have been pushing that the host processor be used
for game logic, dynamics, collision detection and media processing and
they now have all the more reason to champion the placement of geometry,
lighting and rasterization on the 3D chip. This frees the microprocessor
to do game functions. It is clear the industry is moving to eliminate as
much 3D image generation from the processor as possible. AGP is an
excellent path to move vertices from system memory to the geometry front
end of the 3D chip and, in fact, this is what 3Dlabs is doing with Gamma.
Intel has spoken much about the need for a balanced platform design,
however, we have not seen Intel speak to how they expect a balanced
design to be accomplished. For example, to have the API shoulder the
responsibility of L1 cache management so that the Pentium can do
functions it was not designed for is ridiculous. High performance 3D is a
systems issue where architecture and integration of all the components is
a critical factor. This has been known for many years by companies
building flight simulators. The PC industry is beginning to realize the
complexity of 3D system performance.
On the show floor we spoke with all the chip companies to collect an
overview of the current state of 3D. We zeroed in on the preparations for
the 1997 Holiday buying season. OEMs will lock down their purchases for
Q4 by the end of May. Basically, if a chip was not on the floor at CGDC
it would not have an impact in Q4. The primary competitors are: S3, ATI,
Matrox, Cirrus, 3Dfx and nvidia. The RIVA 128 has impressive early
results and it is posed as a spoiler - that is, OEMs are holding off
decisions as they evaluate the chip. Given that the chip was only 20 days
from first silicon achieving this level of attention was impressive.
Absent from the list of Q4 contenders, in all of our interviews, was the
Intel 740 chip. A number of Intel personnel were wearing 740 caps on the
show floor and Intel had a separate invitation only location. Intel would
not respond to a request to discuss its plans for the roll out of the 740
at CGDC.
In spite of Intel's silence much attention is being directed to the 740.
The game developers are certainly sensitive to Intel's entry into this
market as was evident in the panel discussion. The announcement this week
of the Pentium II only increases the attention directed towards the 740.
AGP and the 740 are closely coupled. For AGP to work there must also be
the 440LX chip set which is now rumored to be delayed to Q3 1997. Given
all the emphasis Intel has placed on the use of system memory for texture
storage the 740 will take maximum advantage of this. We see that all of
the following need to fall in place for the 740 to have an impact:
Pentium II, AGP, Memphis, and motherboards populated with 740 chips.
At CGDC we sought the opinions of many in the industry and our best
construction of the 1997 road map is the following. Intel is expected to
go public with the 740 at SIGGRAPH, however, this is likely to be demos
and not shipping silicon. The rollout of products will move to Fall
COMDEX and be too late to have much, if any, impact on Q4. It remains
uncertain if any units will ship in Q4. At the WAVE Report we have spoken
before about operating system support for AGP and the critical gate this
represents. At CGDC we picked up a number of rumors that Intel may have
an update to Windows 95 to support AGP. This could make AGP and the 740
more realistic in Q4 especially if Memphis is slipped into 1998, which
continues to appear likely. Yet, we discount the prospects for a Windows
95 version to support AGP. First, Microsoft made it very clear at the
Windows Driver Conference that they are not doing this. In spite of
Intel's desire to have AGP systems in 1997 we question if Intel is
willing to take on the customer support burden for the Windows O/S in
this area. Further, is Intel willing to test and certify the AGP version
of Windows 95 which supports all versions of AGP capable chip sets,
including those from IBM, for example? Thus, we continue to reach the
conclusion that AGP and 740 are Q1 1998 prospects.
Why all the attention being directed at Intel's plans? If Intel raises
the public expectation for the hottest thing in PCs since MMX and does
not deliver in volume the industry ripple effect could be significant. We
have heard many express concerns that if consumers see better PCs just
over into the next quarter they will hold off buying at Christmas. The
prospects of a poor Christmas with shelves full of non-AGP computers is
not a pleasant thought to many.
Even with this attention being directed to hardware we also came away
disappointed with developments on the software front. Where are tools for
real time game development and delivery? The only authoring tool shown
for real time 3D was Catalyst by NewFire. Nichimen Graphics also
announced Fast Track a modeling package targeted for game developers but
this is based on existing software.
Lee Isgur captured the competitive landscape well. The PC industry is in
direct competition with the home game console - both for consumer titles
and game developer commitment. Only in 1997 do we have the potential of
seeing 3D performance rival that of Nintendo 64. However, it is unlikely
that the number of PCs at this performance level will be able to match
the installed base of Nintendo 64 by the holiday buying season. The PC is
still playing catch-up and Q4 1997 is a very important indicator of its
ability to go against the game consoles.
Q4 1997 is looking shaky as a 3D Christmas. Must we wait until 1998 to
see polygons fall?
The uncertainty in 3D accelerators is simple: who will deliver what, at
sufficient performance levels, and in quantity to make the PC a
competitive 3D platform by Q4 1997. All the 3D companies are working on
3D AGP chips but they could be sorely disappointed if Intel does not
deliver - Cirrus Logic is the first company to have gone public with the
impact that Intel's delays have had. Yet, this is much more than a chip
issue. There must be compelling games and just not home video game ports.
From the brief sample at CGDC there are early indications that high
quality titles will surface. It looks like we will have to wait for E3 in
June to make another assessment of the status of a 3D Christmas.
SHOW FLOOR, ANNOUNCEMENTS AND PRODUCTS
Rendition - New Technology Shown
It seems like everyone knows about the next generation chip - 2000, yet,
Rendition, remains mum. But in the booth were screens running "New
Technology." Although its performance was scaled back the results were
interesting and we await the announcement.
Rendition did announce the availability of Rredline its Windows 95
version of their proprietary API. This is available now for developers.
An MCD is also available for OpenGL.
www.rendition.com
nvidia - G. Police Shown
Showing the first title running on the RIVA 128 was G. Police from
Psygnosis. Many agreed that the combination of the game content and chip
performance was significant for a new chip.
www.nvidia.com
Oak Technology - Tape out is near
Oak Technology expects to tape out in the next few weeks. Chips will be
shown at E3. Expected performance is 33M p/s with all features turned on
including tri-linear texture mapping.
www.oaktech.com
Newfire - Announces Catalyst
Newfire was showing its new authoring tool for creating commercial
quality games for the Internet. Developers can use art created in 3D
Studio MAX and other packages for input. Included in Catalyst are the
following:
*Project Manager, which allows for the management of project output
including its assembly for playback on CD-ROM or the Internet;
*Real Time Playback and Analysis which enables developers to set the
results rapidly;
*Scene Composition to assemble scenes into game elements;
*Interactivity Editor for the assignment of behavior to game
components, and
*Performance optimizer to tailor 3D scene geometry and textures for
fast playback in the playback engine - Torch
The base product is $1995 and plug in modules cost from $250 to $1,000
each. Beta release is in June with shipment in August.
www.newfire.com
Qsound Labs - Provides 2 Solutions for 3D Sound
QSound Labs announced that they support both the Microsoft DirectSound3D
API and their own QMixer API. When developers use the Microsoft API they
can bundle the QSoft3D mixer and rendering engine. QMixer is an audio
mixer which provides interactive placement of individual sounds in multi-
dimensional space. No special hardware is required. The API works on both
Windows 95 and Power Macintosh. Intel MMX is also supported. Sample rates
include 11, 22 and 44.1 kHz at 8 and 16 bit resolution.
www.qsound.ca
Immersion - Force Feedback Primer
At their booth Immersion Corp. was passing out copies of "A Force
Feedback Programming Primer" a 177 page book on development of games
which support PC peripherals which use I-Force 2.0 and DirectX 5.
Immersion claims that the following companies support its I-FORCE:
Logitech, CH Products, SC&T International, ACT Labs, Interactive IO,
Advanced Gravis, InterAct Accessories, and Nuby Manufacturing.
www.immerse.com
/www.force-feedback.com
Sonic Foundry - New Audio Editing & CD-burning Software
Sonic Foundry introduced CD Architect to their line of Windows-based
audio editing products. It provides waveform editing and audio CD burning
capabilities, allowing users to create professional audio CDs on their
PCs. Audio can be imported from compact discs, recorded from digital
audio tape, or digitized through any Windows-compatible sound card. Sound
editing capabilities include dozens of effects and tools to process sound
files. CD Architect will be available for $395.
www.sonicfoundry.com
Duck - New Version of Video Codec
Duck Corporation has released version 2.0 of their TrueMotion video
codec, offering 24-bit RGB at 30 fps.
www.duck.com
Microsoft - Licenses Duck TrueMotion 2.0
Microsoft licensed Duck Corp's codec technology called TrueMotion 2.0.
DirectX media with TrueMotion will allow developers to deliver video on a
wide range of Windows platforms. Features include: data rate control,
scalability and optimization for multiple device platforms and lower
computational complexity for decoding video.
DirectX media is now in beta 1.0 and it is scheduled for release in
DirectX 5.0 this summer.
www.microsoft.com/directX/
www.duck.com/
SciTech - Graphics Library Now Supports OpenGL
SciTech Software has released a public beta version of SciTech MGL 3.1,
their professional graphics library for DOS and Windows platforms. New
features in version 3.1 include full-screen OpenGL support, Borland
Delphi support, and a new framework for game development, along with
other enhancements. SciTech MGL supports three different OpenGL
implementations: Microsoft's OpenGL, SGI's CosmoGL and Mesa (a freeware
OpenGL implementation).
www.scitechsoft.com
Floating Images - New 3D Imaging Technology
Floating Images, Inc. debuted Real-Depth, a new 3D imaging technology
that brings depth to computer and video games using a multi-planar
imaging technique. Their new (patent pending) "floating 3-D, off-the-
screen-experience" technology produces images at different depths on any
display. In addition to providing traditional depth cues such as
perspective and background image occlusion, it also provides both
horizontal and vertical binocular parallax, which coincides with
convergence. Implementation of Real-Depth on a TV or computer monitor
requires a Floating Images adapter, which can be manufactured in quantity
for less than $25 for up to a 20" display.
www.floatingimages.com
Fuseworks - Fuseworks Server Debuts
Fuseworks, Inc. unveiled Fuseworks Server 1.0 and SDK. They allow
developers to create multi-user Java, Shockwave or VRML applications
within a Web browser. They have developed Battlefield.net, the "first
real-time multi-player web based game" with the technology (available
from their Web site).
www.fuseworks.com
Lightscape - Plug-Ins for 3DS MAX and LightWave
Lightscape Technologies announced the availability of import/export plug-
ins for the direct translation of data between 3D Studio MAX and
Lightscape 3.0. This will allow content developed in 3DS to make use of
Lightscape's advanced radiosity rendering engine. Beta versions of the
plug-ins are available now online, with the final versions expected to
ship in June. Similar plug-ins were also announced for NewTek's LightWave
3D; these are expected to ship in Q3.
Lightscape also announced that they have selected Nichimen Graphics as
the Master Distributor for Lightscape products in Japan. They are also
working with Nichimen Graphics to integrate Lightscape 3.0 with
Nichimen's N-World product line, which is in the process of being ported
to Windows NT. These applications will be marketed for the Windows NT
platform under the brand name "Fast Track."
www.lightscape.com
Aureal Semiconductor - 3D Sound SDK
Aureal Semiconductor introduced the A3D SDK, which enables positional 3D
audio hardware acceleration for Microsoft's DirectSound3D API.
www.aureal.com
3D Construction Company - Builder Pro 2.0
3D Construction Company announced version 2.0 of 3D Builder Pro and
PowerLite, new software for building 3D models from photographs.
www.3dconstruction.com
ImagiNation Network - Agreement with Microsoft Announced
A wholly owned business unit of AOL Studios, the ImagiNatiion Network,
announced that it will support Microsoft's DirectPlay. In turn, Microsoft
will distribute with its DirectX 5.0 SDK unique elements of the
ImagiNation's SDK. Thus, there will be a standard set of APIs that
developers can use which will also support content delivery on the
ImagiNation Netowork. Some of these elements include: tournament server,
service providers invite mechanisms, game watching and chatting.
www.inngames.com
Nichimen Graphics - Fast Track Announced for 3D Real Time Modeling
Nichimen Graphics rolled out Fast Track which includes components from
its existing game development software N*World. Included components are
N-Geometry, N-Paint 3D and N-Exchanger Lite. This software will run under
Windows NT and SGI. A special promotion was announced at CGDC where two
licenses for $6,495 one each on NT and SGI. The normal individual price
is $9,995. Delivery is Q3 1997.
www.nichimen.com
ST Labs - Opening of Regional Game Testing Facility Announced
ST Labs, Inc., the nation's largest outsourced software testing service
provider announced the opening of its newest lab in Los Angeles. There
are three laboratories. The Game Test Lab includes the latest gaming
input/output devices such as "force feedback" joysticks, 3-D hardware
components, and popular machines, including Pentium 166s, Pentium Pro
200s, and Pentium MMX 200s. The Static Lab is outfitted with the leading
OEM-bundled machines, covering the most popular end user configurations.
There are more than 90 PC and Macintosh configurations in the Static Lab.
The Component Test Lab provides a way to test component and technology
compatibility which use video, sound, and CD-ROM capabilities The lab
has more than 30 PCs and Macs of various speeds, 65 video cards, over 40
sound cards, and 20 CD-ROM drives of various speeds.
www.stlabs.com
Kinetix - Company Background Provided
Kinetix, a division of Autodesk, released interesting corporate data at
CGDC. It provides nearly $30M in 1997 to its parent company of which 54%
is international and 46% domestic. They claim that 41% of all PC game
developers use 3D Studio MAX. Their share of the entire professional 3D
animation market and authoring market - both PC and workstations - is
32%. The market share for 3D Studio MAX in the 3D PC market is 46% and
the installed base if 66,000 for 3D Studio and 25,000 for MAX.
www.ktx.com
AWARDS
The following Spotlight Awards were presented at the CGDC. A complete
list of winners can be found on their Web site.
Best Prerendered Art - Zork Nemesis
Best Animation - Tomb Raider
Best Use of Video - Wing Commander IV
Sound Effects - Quake
Best Use of Innovative Technology - Super Mario 64
Online/Internet Game - Quake
Best Game of 1996 - Super Mario 64
www.cgdc.com
Wave Issue 9711 5/9/97 Article 3-01