***Conference Report - WinHEC
by John Latta
Presentations
WinHEC exceeded expectations again this year with over 4,000 attendees.
Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates again led the conference with a keynote
talk on "The PC Industry - Opportunities for Growth." Two themes stood
out: making the PC simpler to use and more manageable and taking the PC
platform into new markets beyond personal productivity. In particular
Microsoft wants to increase the penetration of the PC into the home
with the Windows CE OS playing a critical role. Microsoft is also
laying the groundwork for the potential integration of the PC and TV.
Part of this was addressed in detail in a session on "Building a
Broadcast PC."
Bill Gates, Microsoft
Bill Gates stated that Windows 95 upgrades are selling at a rate 40%
higher than a year ago. Since August 1995, 60 million users have
purchased Windows 95, either as an upgrade or with a system. In the
last 4 months the ship rate for Windows 95 has been 4M/month. There are
over 3 million Windows NT users and this is climbing at the rate of
200,000 per month. Microsoft is investing $1 billion a year into
Windows development. Its Internet browser, IE, now has from 25% to 30%
market share. It was stated that the drive for simplicity is behind all
Microsoft investments.
The schedule for the next major upgrades for Windows was only partially
discussed. At WinHEC, a Developers Beta for Memphis, the next version
of Windows 95, was released and is to be followed by Beta 1 in Q2.
However, Microsoft was clear to state that a final version of Memphis
would not be disclosed until the results of the Beta 1 feedback has
been received. The Beta for Windows NT 5.0 would not be released until
Q3 and no statement was made on its final release. There was also some
discussion that the OEM release of Memphis might proceed the retail
release.
A major thrust between Memphis and Windows NT 5.0 is to bring
consistency between these two OS's. Key features to be shared include:
the Win32 Driver Model (WDM), OnNow/ACPI (power management), Plug and
Play, Streaming media, DVD and Direct X. Collectively these amount to a
significant advancement for the PC platform. Although the move to a
common driver model may seem esoteric, this will make it easier to
upgrade PCs and provide support for a broader class of peripherals.
Microsoft is pushing two new buses which will decrease the amount of
internal upgrading which user must do: USB for low speed serial devices
such as keyboards and 1394 for high speed devices such a video cameras.
Intel announced a 4X version of AGP but no details were provided. This
would put the bandwidth at approximately 1GB/sec.
Jay Torborg, Microsot
Jay Torborg, Director, Graphics and Multimedia, Windows Operating
System Division, described significant extensions to Microsoft's
approach to multimedia. With DirectX 5.0 to be shipped in June,
Microsoft will redefine the low level DirectX API's as DirectX
foundation. The next layer up, which includes ActiveMovie, ActiveX
Animation, Direct3D Retained Mode and DirectPlay will now be called
DirectX Media. The intent is that there will be a high level access to
media services and there will be a unified component architecture for
all media processing which is language independent. Further, this
architecture is supported by the ASF storage format for streaming
media. DirectX 5.0 will be released for Windows 95 redistribution in
June and this will be fully supported in Memphis and Windows NT 5.0. An
area which Jay stressed was the need to improve driver quality.
Microsoft has done much to improve its documentation and it is looking
for the developer community to do its part. Microsoft wants to engage
the developer community more and is forming design review groups. Hints
were given on DirectX 6.0 which will include full Talisman support,
texture transforms, multiple textures per polygon and bump mapping. In
order to give game developers more time before the holiday season
Microsoft expects to ship DirectX 6.0 in the spring of 1998.
Ty Graham, Microsoft
Ty Graham, Technical Evangelist, described how 2D-only graphics will be
dead in 1998 as the mainstream will have shifted to include 3D. He
stated that Microsoft wants to kill the use of the Tunnel example in
Direct 3D as a benchmark. It is his view that the industry needs real
applications to test 3D performance.
Scott Sellers, 3Dfx
From 3Dfx, Scott Sellers, VP Engineering, characterized the minimum
update rate is 30 fps and the goal for compelling content is 60 fps. He
stated that 3D hardware performance is quadrupling every 12 months. His
ideal 3D accelerator is one with multiple independent texture streams,
"infinite" texture memory via fast downloads and compression and no
bandwidth sharing with the host microprocessor. His road map for 3D
game accelerators goes to 100 - 125 Mpixels/sec and 2 - 3 M
triangles/sec in 1998 and to 200 - 250Mpixels/sec and 4 - 5 M
triangles/sec in 1999.
PC 98 Specs
At WinHEC a draft of the PC 98 requirements were released. This is a
very significant document because it carries with it the requirements
for the Microsoft Windows logo. Although in draft form the implications
for the PC being an important 3D platform are clear.
The Basic PC will move up to a 200 MHz CPU with 32 MB of memory and a
graphics display of 1024 X 768 X 16 bits. ISA will be eliminated. The
buses included will be PCI, USB and IEEE 1394. The 3D performance
guidelines include: 1 M triangles/sec with 40 M pixels/sec of bilinear
filtering and a recommended rate to 60 M pixels/sec. A set-up engine is
also recommended. These are required, as per the draft, for the
entertainment PC and recommended for the Consumer and Office PC.
ATI - Announces Rage Pro
ATI announced Rage Pro which will ship in June with pricing TBD. The
memory supported includes: DRAM, EDORAM, SDRAM, SGRAM and WRAM with
bandwidths up to 800 MHz across a 64bit interface. The WRAM interface
can be at 128 bits and an external DAC and memory configurations from 4
MB to 16 MB. The chip has 4 KB of texture cache. Included on the chip
is: power management, a video engine, AGP & PCI interfaces, RAMDAC, 3D
and setup engine. The RAMDAC operates at 230MHz which will support
85MHz refresh on a 1600 X 1200 display. The video features include 720
pixel wide horizontal lines with MPEG-2 motion compensation. The set up
engine is rated at 1 Mpixels/sec. This is one of the first chips to use
texture compression and their implementation is based on vector
quantization methods. ATI claims 8:1 compression.
Three packages are supported in the PRO family: Pro-133 in a 256 pin
BGA package, Pro-66 in the same package at the Pro-133 but for cost
sensitive packages and Pro-PCI in a 208 PQFP package which is pin
compatible with the 3D RAGE II and RAGE II+ packages and intended as an
upgrade part.
www.atitech.ca
NEC - PowerVR PCX2
NEC announced the PowerVR PCX2. This is an upgrade from their earlier
chip and it now includes bilinear interpolation, however, it does not
include 2D. The units will ship in May and pricing is $35 in quantities
of 10,000. The memory technology is SDRAM. The process technology is
.35 micron. It is expected that end-user cards will cost from $150 -
$199.
www.powervr.com
Aureal - Bringing Spatial Sound to the PC
Aureal was showing at WinHEC its Aureal 3D sound. This is the first
product to be compliant with Microsoft's DirectSound 5.0 standard. The
technology allows developers to create compelling audio with only two
speakers or headphones. The technology makes possible 3D sound
placement which is fully spatial and interactive. Diamond Multimedia
will be shipping the first card (Monster Sound) using the technology in
2 - 3 weeks. This card will cost from $149 - $199 and include 5 games.
A number of game developers have announced support of the technology
and they include Lucas Arts, Acclaim, Sierra On-Line , Spectrum
Holobyte and Virgin Interactive.
www.aureal.com
Points to Ponder
WinHEC was the first stop in the race to win in Q4 1997 with compelling
3D on the Windows platform. The next two stops will be the Computer
Game Developer's conference later this month and then E3 in June where
entertainment content will surface. 1997 bears close watching to
determine if this will be the year 3D comes alive as a market driver.
1995 and 1996 were 3D push years and we are waiting to see if 1997 will
be a pull year. WinHEC was also a stimulant to examine the broader
context of what is shaping the PC as a platform, how this is impacting
the industry and the role 3D is playing.
In the next 90 days OEMs will make decisions on the 3D chips they will
use for holiday shipments. At WinHEC we saw new offerings from nvidia,
ATI and NEC. 3Dfx has disclosed it also has a new chip coming. Bill
Gates was showing the new Rendition chip in his demo but the company
has not publicly announced it. Intel was hardly heard from other than
its normal statement that 3D is important and the platform design must
be balanced. Yet, Intel has the most to lose in Q4 if the execution in
1997 is less than optimum. As with MMX in 1996, Intel proposed a major
platform initiative which did not get delivered until 1997, the same is
looking increasingly likely for AGP. AGP, which uses system memory for
texture storage, requires Memphis and Windows NT 5.0. Yet, it remains
unclear and, in fact, unlikely that Memphis will ship in time to have
demonstrable impact on the market in Q4. Thus, other chip companies
must rely on non-AGP solutions to bring their high performance parts to
market. Intel is rumored to be working on a part code name Auburn in
conjunction with Lockheed Martin's Real 3D. Thus, Intel not only
supplies the motherboards which many OEMs are counting on, it is in
direct competition with most of the chip companies. We see the major
competitive battle for large OEM wins being between Intel and S3. In
spite of the emergence of new 3D chips there exits considerable
uncertainty on what platform will emerge to deliver 3D capabilities in
1997. It remains clouded if this will be the year 3D emerges.
There is a more global competition taking place - who shapes and
controls the PC platform? Increasingly we see that this is between
Intel and Microsoft. In the graphics space Intel proposed last year
GC97 which has largely been ignored. The document with the most impact
has clearly been PC 97 because it carries with it Microsoft's Windows
logo requirement. Microsoft raised the barrier again at WinHEC with the
release of PC 98. Intel spoke of AGP 4X, which we took as an indication
that the current AGP has insufficient bandwidth, a view held in the
industry since AGP was announced.
Microsoft has a close barometer on the PC industry because of the
support burden it carries. This is driving it to make PCs simpler to
use and to enhance the "user experience." Thus, the emphasis on driver
quality and the move to closed-box PCs. Microsoft wants to
significantly reduce its support costs and it is translating that into
action to change the platform. In the highly fragmented PC industry
there is a desire for leadership to set the platform standards and
Microsoft has stepped up to this role. Its hardware quality labs also
serve a valuable role in testing and this is now being extended to
include drivers for 3D. Thus, even in hardware, Microsoft is the leader
in defining the future of the PC. Microsoft also recognizes that if it
is to continue to maintain or accelerate home adoption of the PC major
platform changes lie ahead. Windows CE certainly plays a role here.
This has the potential of being the foundation for many new PC based
products and ones in which Intel could play a small or even minor role.
We believe that much can be surmised from the underlying motivations of
these companies in this competitive environment. Intel has made it very
clear it seeks to sell more microprocessors and driving demand for
visually compelling PCs is one approach. In short, Intel must
continually drive up the demand for MIPS. Any fall off in MIPS demand
will limit the profits it generates and thus its ability to build new
fab facilities. It is a circle of demand and profits which is only self
sustaining as long as the demand for Intel microprocessors continues to
grow. Yet, Intel only sets part of the hardware agenda and not the
software standards. Its attempts in the past, such as NSP, have failed.
In contrast, Microsoft must continue to drive PC penetration so that it
gains revenues from its Windows products and applications. At WinHEC we
saw Bill Gates's emphasis on moving the PC into new applications,
especially in the home. Thus, only by sustaining demand, will Microsoft
be able to see its stock price continue to rise. Microsoft does not
have to be exclusively tied to Intel to achieve its objectives. Another
way for Microsoft to improve its performance is to also decrease its
support burden and this is fully consistent with the presentations at
WinHEC. Microsoft has obvious motivations for driving the platform and
in the process Intel has an important but potentially less critical
role, especially with the Windows CE platform.
At WinHEC it was clear that 3D is integral to the evolution of the PC
platform. These chips also fit within another larger whole. The display
chip has become really a multimedia, graphics and display processor. In
the process it is becoming the second most complex piece of silicon in
the PC. This is a major market opportunity, just as PC logic chips were
in the mid-80's. Intel cannot afford to ignore this opportunity
because, if not controlled by it, its control of the platform could
erode. By the same token Microsoft is driving 3D technology with
Talisman, which also has multimedia capabilities. Again, we find that
platform control is where the action will be as the PC industry seeks
to maintain its 20% + growth rates into 2000 and beyond. 3D maybe a bit
player but a very important one at that.
Wave Issue 9707 4/14/97 Article 7-01