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The WAVE Report on Digital Media 3D --- Media Creation --- Shared Space ---Published by 4th Wave, Inc.--- Issue #0548------------------12/2/05 |
The WAVE Report is Searchable on
http://www.3dlinks.com
http://www.wave-report.com
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0548.2 Telecom Carrier Report
New Paradigm Resources Group's Competitive Carrier Report 2006 Sees Intensifying Telecom Competition
0548.3 Portable Storage
Debate Between NAND and HDD for Portable Consumer Electronics Will Heat Up, IDC Believes
0548.4 LCD Developments
0548.5 Database Protection
0548.6 Alternate Browsers
Mozilla Introduces Firefox 1.5 and Ups the Ante in Web Browsing
0548.7 2006 Predictions
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***WiMAX World 2005
By John Latta
Boston, MA
10/28 – 29/05
The largest development here at WiMAX World is the attendance – estimated at 3,000. But there is more. A new application is emerging, with 802.11: it is the creation of wireless digital communities based on funding, in part, by municipalities. In addition, the 802.16e standard has changed including hand-off which places WiMAX on a collision course with cellular. Much has changed in one year.
The venue has changed to the World Congress Center in Boston from a hotel last year. But the Congress Center is strained. The exhibit area is small and occupies only a fraction of the available space. The conference sessions are packed. WiMAX has turned a corner to create great interest in a broad community of sellers and buyers.
WiMAX Timeline
We will capture some of the key events both present and future to place WiMAX in context.
802.16e, the mobility standard, is complete and will be finalized by December 2005.
A major addition is the ability to support make-before-break handover.
Certified products are expected December 2006.
802.16 – 2004, the fixed standard, has been out a year and the certification process is underway. The second plug fest will take place November 2005. Certified products are due December 2005.
CPE will launch:
802.16-2004 – End 2005
802.16e – End 2007PC Cards for 802.16e – Christmas 2007
Native Notebooks with 802.16e – 2H 2008
Full Cellular WiMAX capabilities – 2H 2008 to 1H 2009
WiMAX vs. Cellular
The words are careful:
WiMAX is complementary with cellular systems.
The reality is different. WiMAX is on a direct collision course to compete with cellular systems. Some points made during the presentations:
The existence of WiMAX with full mobility has forced GSM and the cellular suppliers to move more quickly to define their offerings beyond 3G.
The center of the efforts in 4G is under the ITU Working Party 8F – IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000. So far, the basis for 4G is based on concepts and have not been reduced to standards. Some of the concepts being discussed include:
MIMO-OFDM
1Gb/s peak with 100MB/s average rates
All IP NetworksWithin 3GPP, these efforts to define 4G are called LTE – Long Term Evolution.
The time paths for both technologies can best be estimated today at:
1 – 10Mb/s – WiMAX – 2007 – 2008
1 – 10Mb/s – 3GPP LTE – 2008 - 2012This latter disconnect causes concern in the cellular industrial base.
Emergence of Digital Communities
Much press has been generated about communities implementing full-city wireless networks. WiMAX plays a role here, to begin with, as the back haul technology. But with the development of 802.16e, it can further extend the reach and quality of what is called here as personal broadband. Here are some points picked up from the presentations:
It could well be that non-traditional suppliers will emerge in the implementation of these networks. For example, EarthLink won the contract to do Philadelphia and Google has emerged as a competitor for San Francisco.
Many of these systems begin with the intent to improve public safety but expand will beyond to public access. Areas where these networks are having a role include:
Healthcare and Education
Retail and Distribution
Telco, Energy and Utilities
Travel and TransportationThe need for these public systems has been accelerated by the recent disasters, in particular the Hurricanes.
It is estimated that 250 communities are planning or have implemented these networks.
The dark cloud over these efforts is that the traditional carriers are trying to stop them. Verizon sought Pennsylvania legislation to prohibit Philadelphia from implementing its city-wide network. Language in the re-write of the Telecommunications Act of 1996 apparently has words which prohibit such systems.
Korea as Stimulant
The WiBro efforts in Korea are recognized here. KT was involved in a panel presentation and has joined the WiMAX Forum. Many are looking for major progress to be made in Korea as it shows the first systems at the APEC Summit meeting in November in Pusan. Korea.
WiMAX Market Dynamics
The WAVE probed for the market dynamics around WiMAX. Here is what we found:
The two standards, 802.16 – 2004 (aka 802.16d) and the “mobility standard” 802.16e are incompatible. That is, a radio for 802.16e will not necessarily be able to communicate with an 802.16 – 2004 radio. 802.16e uses OFDMA technology, but it does not have to, and 802.16 – 2004 only relies on OFDM technology. OFMDA is less stable in terms of a technology definition than OFDM. As a result, some of the silicon suppliers have little interest in creating products just for 805.16 – 2004 as this will be a smaller market and ultimately fade away.
Discussions with silicon suppliers, i.e., competitors, netted that Intel’s silicon is 2 years behind leaders in the industry. Runcom Technologies, for example, was showing a working radio at 802.16e in its booth.
The market viability of WiMAX will ultimately rest based on spectrum availability. The U.S. has no spectrum at 3.5GHz while the rest of the world has 3.5GHz availability. Carriers seek to avoid unlicensed bands as much as possible due to the inability to guarantee service.
The Korean WiBro trials, beginning in November 2005, and service availability in 2006, is a major event forcing pre-certification product availability to meet the service needs. Yes, there are many trials around the world but the demands for equipment in Korea to fulfill this government mandate are driving the equipment market.
From a market competition standpoint, the silicon suppliers view Intel not as a competitor but a major market creation spending machine. The real competition is with Qualcomm and especially its acquisition of Flarion. No one that the WAVE spoke with has an idea what Qualcomm is seeking to do in the market and especially the role it will play with IP. The next competition comes from the existing 3G ecosystem.
Intel makes the pitch to the carriers that WiMAX offers the opportunity to decrease your costs because you will no longer have to subsidize the terminals. The reason being that every laptop will come with WiMAX built in just like WiFi. Yet, many others, including the silicon suppliers, view head-to-head competition with cellular voice using WiMAX and this is likely to follow the same aggressive market tactics in cellular and the need to subsidize the terminals.
Offering cellular service at 3.5GHz and even 5GHz will force cell spacing closer than existing cell phone systems. This has the potential of demanding a new roll out of investment for infrastructure to create seamless coverage. That is, using the existing cellular towers and sites will not be adequate for WiMAX. Mobility demands seamless handoffs and this directly relates to cellular density and spacing.
The inclusion of make-before-break requirements in 802.16e to support hand-off is just the tip of the iceberg. Seamless mobility without interruption of service, which is done well with cellular service today, is a major technical accomplishment and WiMAX has much to do to make this work. Just because it claims that hand-off is present in the specification does not mean that it can be accomplished with the same user experience that has come to be expected with traditional cellular services. When the WAVE asked – will the hand off experience with WiMAX be the same as in 3G, we could get no response.
WiMAX Forum is seeking to joint the on-going efforts to define 4G under the ITU Working Party 8F – IMT-2000 and so far its attempts have been resisted. This is seen as the “old guard” in cellular resisting the new forces. The WiMAX Forum has gone to the EU, apparently to gain support, for its attempt to join the ITU efforts. The WiMAX Forum claims that ultimately the standards for 4G will converge between traditional GSM efforts on 4G and WiMAX technology. Ultimately this is all about control of the technology which underlies the wireless communications infrastructure.
Many cellular carriers are worried that WiMAX will undercut their existing business. The statements that WiMAX is complementary and provides “personal broadband” do not lessen the fears that this technology could allow for significant competition to their core business.
In new cellular services a major gating factor is terminal availability. Lucent cited that it took nearly 5 years to get quality and high volume handsets to market for 3G. So far, there has been little focus on handsets for WiMAX. Intel has directed its attention to notebooks and this is considered a small market for the potential of WiMAXterminal equipment. When it was pointed out that Intel also seeks to sell chip sets to the cellular market, one silicon vendor just laughed – Intel has been unsuccessful here and they see no prospect of this changing in WiMAX.
“Rogue” suppliers of communications, such as Google in San Francisco, and Earthlink in Philadelphia, could be a significant disruptive force in their ability to cherry pick the wireless market. WiMAX, with its support of WiFi, especially in back haul distribution, could make for a more economical infrastructure. This would then put the existing cellular carriers at a major disadvantage. Thus, the emergance of city-wide municipality-supported networks, many of which are free, is seen as a threat to the business of the wireless carriers.
Ron Resnick, President and Chair , WiMAX Forum and VP of Marketing, Intel, stated that it is the objective of the WiMAX Forum to provide WiMAX with the lowest cost IPR overhead. It was stated that there will not be a significant IPR burden for handsets.
Lucent Gives an Operator Perspective
Lucent presented its view of the market, in part, in response to the requests it gets from the fixed line operators. Points raised include:
From an operator perspective, the two cost items which most impact the balance sheet are:
1. Cell phone subsidy with the worldwide average at $50 per phone.
2. Backhaul costs.
WiMAX offers the opportunity to decrease these costs. The continuation of Intel Centrino to WiMAX would eliminate the $50 subsidy if it is assumed there are no handsets provided to customers for WiMAX service.
WiMAX should be seen from the perspective of the opportunities it provides. For the Mobile Network Operator (MNO), this enables a fixed service bundle for phone and DSL and includes nomadic and portable access. For the Fixed Network Operator (FNO) it provides the opportunity to fillxDSL white spots and the opportunity to enter the nomadic/portable market.
The major issue impacting the deployment of WiMAX is spectrum availability. The most favored spectrum is 3.5GHz but this is not available in the U.S. 5.8GHz is unlicensed in most of the world but it has significant limitations due to propagation that will require small cell sizes (600m in cities) to achieve performance and coverage. In the 700MHz range, the U.S. has a major advantage of propagation and in building penetration. It can also increase the radius of cell sites in rural areas – to 50Km.
An operator might use unlicensed for backhaul but it would not in dense urban areas.
WiMAX is not good for in-building service.
Qualcom is opening the salvo for the next battle in wireless and this comes in part with their acquisition of Flarion.
Lucent adds value where WiMAX is weak. This includes:
Network management systems
Integration and test with operational systems
Worldwide support.Lucent feels that the current placement of WiMAX, in priority, is:
Fixed Rural Wireless Broadband Services
Metro Government – City WiFi
Fixed Urban T1/DSL Replacement
Mobile Data Overlay – when 802.16e is available
Runcom Technologies – Showing Operating 802.16e
Runcom has as its strength OFDMA technology and supplies SOC products for phones and base stations. In the booth, it was showing a working prototype of a 802.16e system. The major competition in the market is Qualcomm. What Intel has done is to bring its marketing power to help create WiMAX.
Wavesat – 802.16e Mini-PCI Form Factor
Wavesat sees an evolution in the market. They have implemented a mini-PCI card with their silicon. It is possible to implement 802.16e using just OFDM technology. OFDMA will come with a later revision. They believe the market will begin with simple mobility. It was also cautioned that seamless handoff will take some time to develop.
WAVE Comments
WiFi is becoming WiCity. Cities are seeing an advantage to becoming connected everywhere. Spain is seeking a WiFi umbrella over the country. This has significant advantages to city services, emergency response and competitive economic benefit. There are 250+ cities in the U.S. either considering or implementing citywide wireless networks. WiMAX plays an important role here in that it lowers backhaul costs. WiMAX becomes the wireless umbrella that connects WiFi access points.
In spite of the careful positioning of WiMAX to be a “complementary” offering in wireless this is just not the case. There are two economic factors:
First, the MAN market is trivial compared to the cellular market. It hardly makes sense to create a whole MAN ecosystem solution without addressing mobility. Any mobility solution that does not at least match what 3G and 4G is capable of will not get market traction. At the same time, this forces WiMAX to duplicate what cellular has been very effective in accomplishing – seamless mobility with hand off.
Second, the driver behind WiMAX, in particular Intel, is the need for additional sources of growth. The cellular pie is a candidate but to accomplish this requires the mantle of standards, technology and much more. Thus, WiMAX is largely a U.S. effort in direct competition with the wireless industry in Europe. The WAVE has seen this before in conferences in Europe and the reality has finally surfaced in the U.S.
***New Paradigm Resources Group's Competitive Carrier Report 2006 Sees Intensifying Telecom Competition
CHICAGO
Nov. 29, 2005
The annual Competitive Carrier Report 2006 by New Paradigm Resources Group, Inc. forecasts another year of brass knuckle market combat as the competitive local telecom industry enters its 10th year under the Telecom Act - and the winners will be companies that fight smart, not just hard.
NPRG's Competitive Carrier Report 2006, 20th Edition provides detailed analysis of 51 competitive carriers including traditional providers, as well as those transitioning to soft switches. The report presents a comprehensive list of all the markets where competitive carriers are active, and provides detailed breakdowns on revenues and facilities.
Among the key findings of this year's report:
-- UNE-P Forces Change. UNE-P deregulation is having a major impact on competitive carriers, forcing operators to consider lower-margin leasing arrangements, facilities deployment, or even to drop services.
-- VoIP Goes Mainstream. In response to UNE-P change, many competitors are migrating to VoIP softswitching to provide voice services, benefiting from the reduced costs associated with VoIP facilities vs. circuit switches.
-- Wireless Options Make a Comeback. Advances in LMDS have made fixed wireless less expensive and more sophisticated, reviving the interest of competitive carriers in a wireless last-mile option once thought dead. Similarly, the evolution of Wi-Fi and WiMax broadband wireless is opening up new, low-cost alternatives vs. wireline connectivity.
-- Pricing Pressures Offer Surprise Benefits. While retail and wholesale prices continue to place pressure on operators' top lines, competitors are also benefiting from the decline in T-1 and T-3 prices from wholesalers, using T-1s to offer higher-margin integrated services.
-- Revenue Down, Access Lines Up. Revenue growth, which peaked in 2004 at $33.53 billion, will decline slightly for the next several years to roughly $32.6 billion in 2009. Competitive carriers' access lines, however, continued an upward trend, rising 10.5% from 37 million lines in 2004 to nearly 41 million lines in 2005.
-- Capital Expenditures Decline - But Softswitch and OSS Sales Show Promise. Capex continued to decline, from $2.1 billion in 2004 to $1.9 billion in 2005, and will likely fall to $1.75 billion in 2006. Exceptions to the trend will be investments in soft switches and operational support systems software, to reduce carriers' operating costs.
***Debate Between NAND and HDD for Portable Consumer Electronics Will Heat Up, IDC Believes
FRAMINGHAM, Mass.
Nov. 30, 2005
The storage debate between NAND flash memory and hard disk drives (HDDs) for the portable consumer electronics market will continue and likely increase with price disparity decreasing over the next four years, IDC believes. NAND memory average selling price is expected to decrease at a 43% compound annual growth rate from 2004 to 2009. However, price per GB is not the sole decision criteria. Factors such as total capacity requirements, form-factor, power consumption, weight, durability, data rates, as well as strategic OEM and storage supplier alliances, weigh heavily into storage technology criterion.
IDC's Insight, A Hard Choice That Won't be Made in a Flash: HDD Versus NAND, (IDC #34373), provides an analysis of two storage technologies (NAND and HDD) vying for similar embedded storage opportunities in portable digital devices. The focus is on technology advancements, price parity, and the competitive landscape, as well as trends in leading application markets. This Insight forecasts price per GB for both NAND flash memory, and 1.0-in and smaller HDD, and explores the likely impact that price and other attributes will have on the choice of each embedded storage technology in portable digital devices through 2009.
***Taiwan takes large-sized LCD lead
Taipei, Taiwan
Nov. 29, 2005
The LCD industry in Taiwan has recently starting to flex its muscle, grabbing market shares from Korea to push Taiwan as a whole into the number one spot for LCD panel production.
According to display market research firm DisplaySearch, Taiwan’s large-sized TFT-LCD panel shipments in the second quarter of 2005 took 45 percent of the market, surpassing South Korea as the largest producer of LCD panels.
The Color Imaging Industry Promotion Office (CIPO) of Taiwan forecasts that the large-sized TFT-LCD industry will grow by 31 percent in 2005 to a production value of USD 176 billion. In total, CIPO predicts Taiwan’s flat panel industry will generate production value of USD 214 billion in 2005.
LCD TVs drive growth
One of the surprising factors driving growth of large-sized TFT-LCD panels has been the market for consumer television. Large-sized LCD panels refer to panels measuring larger than 10-inches on the diagonal.
In 2004, panel prices severely dropped, resulting in lowered TV prices for consumers. Semenza indicated in the firm’s On Display FPD magazine that this price dropping, coupled with a transition to Digital TV (DTV) in many countries, is forcing many changes to the consumer TV market.
Desktop display replacements
According to DisplaySearch, shipments of desktop monitors were once again on the rise, growing 4 percent quarter-on-quarter and 36 percent year-on-year for 2Q05.
The Quarterly Desktop Monitor Shipment and Forecast Report from DisplaySearch showed that LCD monitors accounted for 65 percent of all desktop displays shipped in the second quarter.
Taiwan has benefited greatly from this, as the country accounted for 61.4 percent of all LCD monitors in the first quarter of 2005, according to DigiTimes Research.
Statistics from Taiwan research organization Industrial Economics and Knowledge Center (IEK) showed that manufacturing of large-sized TFT-LCD panels generated a total output value of USD 4.06 billion during the second quarter of 2005, for 5.7 percent quarter-on-quarter growth.
Advancing optoelectronics
Taiwan’s largest LCD panel manufacturer, AU Optronics (AUO), stated a new manufacturing facility (fab) and new technologies will help push the company to become a major player in the consumer LCD TV industry.
AUO plans to move equipment into its newest G7.5 fab in the second quarter of 2006, with production to begin in the fourth quarter. The G7.5 fab would manufacture glass substrates – the glass used in LCD panels – at a size of 1,950mm x 2,250mm. This will allow the company to effectively produce eight 42-inch TFT-LCD panels, six 47-inch TFT-LCD panels, or three 56-inch TFT-LCD panels per substrate. Capacity would be set at 30,000 substrates per month.
LEDs to power LCDs
AUO believes that new technologies would help keep the company competitive in the years ahead. Specifically, AUO said the company was investing 3 percent of revenues in research on light emitting diodes (LEDs), and that AUO is already shipping small-sized LCD modules with LED backlights. According to AUO, the LED backlights doubled the efficiency of the LCD panels.
AUO acknowledged that the technology would take time to mature, but mentioned that other Taiwan entities, most notably the Industrial Technology Research Institute, Taiwan’s premier research organization, had developed a low-cost LED backlight, which could be applied to high-end flat panel displays by 2006.
As Taiwan manufacturers lower manufacturing costs, open new fabs, and lead breakthroughs in technology, the island will maintain its leadership position in the LCD industry.
***TimeSpring Delivers Application Intelligent Continuous Data Protection Software For Microsoft SQL Server 2005
NEWPORT BEACH, Calif.
November 29, 2005
TimeSpring Software Corp. announced the delivery of TimeData for Microsoft SQL Server 2005. TimeSpring’s TimeData continuous data protection (CDP) software eliminates the data protection gap of traditional backup systems and allows SQL Server users to recover from data loss, corruption or other issues within minutes. TimeData also helps users migrate real-time production data from SQL Server 2000 to SQL Server 2005 without shutting down, slowing down or exporting data. TimeSpring’s TimeData is currently the only file-based application intelligent CDP solution for the Windows platform.
TimeSpring’s patented software works by automatically capturing all changes to SQL Server databases in real-time to an onsite or offsite time-dimensioned repository. There are no protection gaps, no scheduling requirements, no backup related system slowdowns and no backup windows for the administrator to manage. The TimeData software supports SQL Server in standalone and clustered server environments.
TimeSpring’s TimeData software also simplifies and shortens the migration process to SQL Server 2005. It dramatically reduces the risk associated with migrating a live-transaction environment. The TimeData data repository can be used independent of the original database to test, analyze and report using real data. If users wish to refresh the data, they can do it very quickly and painlessly at any time. Migration can even be temporarily reversed without losing data.
Earlier this year TimeSpring earned an ISV/Software Solutions Competency certification. The Microsoft ISV/Software Solutions Competency certification provides market recognition to companies who have demonstrated a consistent, high quality delivery of specific solutions.
TimeSpring’s TimeData continuous data protection software is available for SQL Server, Microsoft Exchange Server as well as NTFS. All are immediately available through qualified resellers and directly from TimeSpring.
***Mozilla Introduces Firefox 1.5 and Ups the Ante in Web Browsing; New Automatic Update System Makes Firefox an ''Install Once and Forget It'' Application for All Types of Web Users
MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif.
Nov. 29, 2005
One year after the debut of Firefox 1.0, and more than 100 million downloads later, Mozilla Corp. today released Firefox 1.5, the latest version of its open source Web browser, available now as a free download from the Firefox website. Firefox 1.5 builds upon the success of its predecessor to deliver an improved browser with significant performance and usability upgrades, security and privacy enhancements, best-in-class support for Web standards, and greater customization options.
New and Improved Features
Firefox 1.5 has been enhanced in several key areas:
User Experience
-- New "drag and drop" feature for tabbed browsing helps to better organize page viewing.
-- Improved pop-up blocker screens users from more unwanted pop-up ads.
-- New reference search engine Answers.com is now included in the integrated Search box.
-- Improved Live Bookmarks feature enables easier discovery of and subscription to RSS feeds.
-- Improved Options interface makes it easier to adjust browser settings.
Security and Privacy
-- New Automatic Update system alerts users and prompts them to act when security and functionality updates become available, allowing users to have the most up-to-date browser at any time. With Automatic Updates, Firefox 1.5 is ready for even the newest Web surfer or computer user, because it essentially makes Firefox an "install once and forget it" application. Firefox takes care of security updates for you.
-- New Clear Private Data tool simplifies maintaining privacy. Users can clear all private information, such as history and form entries, via one easily accessible settings window.
Performance and Accessibility
-- Improved performance with a next-generation rendering and layout engine that speeds navigation between previously viewed Web pages through intelligent caching and displays complex Web pages more accurately.
-- New capabilities contributed by IBM that make it easier for the aged or mobility and sight-impaired to navigate the Web. The browser can now be used with technology that reads Web content aloud; allow users to navigate with keystrokes rather than mouseclicks; and reduce the tabbing required to navigate documents such as spreadsheets.
Extensibility/Customization
-- The browser remains easy to use, in part by not loading it down with a "jack of all trades, master of none" approach to features and functionality. Instead, Firefox integrates the most used technologies into the browser itself, while allowing users to add specific functionality through third-party extensions to the browser.
-- Developers have already created more than 700 extensions for Firefox, with many more expected in the weeks following today's release.
Firefox 1.5 is now available as a free download from
WAVE Comment
The Wave Report website receives over one million hits per year. Our site analysis has shown that Firefox, at 40%, is the second most popular browser that visits our pages. The known advantage of Firefox is its adherence to the latest website design and hypertext programming standards.
***Gartner Identifies Six IT Trends That Will Have a Significant Impact on People, Business and the IT Industry
STAMFORD, Conn.
Nov. 29, 2005
Gartner, Inc. has unveiled six IT industry trends that it expects will cause significant disruption and drive opportunity for business and the IT industry in 2006 and beyond.
These six key trends are part of a series of "Gartner Predicts" research that will include nearly 50 reports that discuss the major trends that will affect IT users, vendors and most industries in 2006 and beyond. Each year, Gartner analysts in every research area converge to identify, debate and develop these trends to help companies with their tactical IT planning and investment decisions in the short term and their overall IT strategy in the long term. The Gartner Predicts 2006 Special Reports series will be available on gartner.com beginning in December.
By 2008, 10 percent of companies will require employee-purchased notebooks.
Company-owned notebooks are commonly used for personal purposes, such as e-mail, music and videos. Gartner predicts that notebooks will begin to move from company ownership to personal ownership. Since notebook prices have declined dramatically during the past few years, this transition is mostly likely to be managed through the implementation of a notebook allowance, much like car mileage today.
By 2010, 30 percent of U.S. homes will use only cellular or Internet telephony.
In 2004, nearly 90 percent of the world's new telecom connections were mobile. Growth in traditional wired voice connections will slow in North America, Western Europe and other developed markets as more people dedicate fixed phone lines to DSL links and switch to cellular or Internet telephony. U.S. consumers are just beginning to add voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) services to their range of telephony options, but as they get more comfortable with the technology, and as VoIP services improve, they will start to abandon traditional phones. Mobile communications will remain the preference of developing countries, and as a result, wireless links will represent 99 percent of the world's new voice connections in 2009.
The job market for IT specialists will shrink 40 percent by 2010.
The coming decade will see the emergence of IT "versatilists," people whose multidisciplinary assignments, roles and experiences create a valuable blend of synthesized knowledge, competencies and context to fuel business value.
Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) service providers will capture $11 billion of insurance revenue by 2008.
Insurers are turning to external BPO providers to expedite their legacy transformation process. BPO providers are responding by assuming the business process requirements from insurance providers. Gartner analysts predict that by 2008, BPO will have the intellectual property and technology platforms to align with the distribution channel (for example, bank and investment houses) and launch insurance ventures that capture up to one percent of the global annual premium total of life, annuity, and property and casualty products. Using the US as an example, this translates into a shift of nearly $11 billion to BPO which will have a substantial impact on the market landscape.
A 50 percent growth in healthcare software investment could enable clinicians to cut the level of preventable deaths in half by 2013.
Healthcare has historically underinvested in IT, however, this is changing. Gartner analysts predict that by 2009, healthcare investments in IT will increase by more than 50 percent, which could enable clinicians to reduce the level of preventable deaths by 50 percent by 2013.
Through 2008, investigation of new technologies will slow as discretionary budgets divert to regulatory compliance.
Regulation is increasing, and the race for "regulatory parity" between the European Commission and the U.S. government ensures this trend will continue through 2010. Gartner analysts said that regulatory compliance spending is growing at a rate twice that of IT spending, and in many case, discretionary IT budgets are entirely consumed by compliance efforts, stifling initiatives that are important to business growth.
http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?ref=g_search&id=487286
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