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The WAVE Report on Digital Media 3D --- Media Creation --- Shared Space ---Published by 4th Wave, Inc.--- Issue #0544------------------11/4/05 |
The WAVE Report is Searchable on
http://www.3dlinks.com
http://www.wave-report.com
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0544.2 Information Security
0544.3 Fuel Cell Advances
dExceptional PolyFuel Membrane Durability Enables Over 5,000-Hour Portable Fuel Cell Lifetimes
0544.4 Core Cable Costs
Kagan Forecasts Basic Cable Programming Costs Will Average $2.69/Sub in 2009
0544.5 You Are Invited…
0544.6 Grid Technology
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***DigitalLife 2005
By John Latta
New York, NY
10/14 – 15/05
Let there be no doubt about it – DigitalLife is an end user show. The first day was Industry Day but the place was flooded with end users. This is the 18 – 30 year old crowd, mostly male, that loves games and gadgets. The show floor is only about 1/3 of the Jacob Javits Convention Center, thus relatively small. One has the impression that this is PC Expo in different clothing. Yes, Nokia and Verizon are here, which gives it a mobile and connectivity angle, but the vast majority of the floor is focused on PCs, media devices and game play including a tournament play area.
When it comes to gamers and the connected, this is a slice of New York. Just like a piece of pizza. But it is just that – not a full reflection of New York and the dimensions of society here.
The Keynotes
Don MacDonald, VP and GM Digital Home Group, Intel, gave the same talk as he did at CEATEC. As some measure of the end use acceptance of the message, it appeared that at least 50% of the audience was high school students and the auditorium was still not packed.
Peter Moore, Corporate VP, Worldwide Marketing and Publishing, HED, Microsoft, gave the Xbox 360 rally. The auditorium was packed and they loved it. As the video clips rolled of the game titles each got its own response. Microsoft is seizing the high ground of beating PS3 to market and the players are ready. The support for iPod and PSP also got a good response.
Is ATI Worried?
Hardly. With Intel showing off 300mm system-on-a-chip (SOC) wafers that includes graphics, the WAVE wanted to know – is Intel’s SOC for the home a serious issue? When we asked ATI, they said:
Intel tried SOC before, in 1994, and it resulted in nothing.
Intel’s claims of being low power are just the opposite of reality today.
We (ATI) will be able to do more with Vista, and its reliance on 3D, than Intel with its graphics in SOC.
Bottom line – it remains to be seen if Intel can deliver.
TiVo Lines Them Up and Gives Them Away
It is the classic – give the razor away to make money on the blades. TiVo had a mock funeral to bury the VCR which they claim “never lived up to its promise for easy and convenient television recording.” TiVo was giving away 100’s of TiVo Series2 units for those that brought in a VCR tape. All one had to do was to sign up for the TiVo subscription. The new owners were walking out of the convention center in droves carrying their big TiVo boxes. They were all like walking billboards.
The subscription costs $49.99 for one year after the rebate and no early termination service charges are levied if cancelled in the first 30 days.
iPod Accessories Galore
In another example of “ride on the backs of giants”, iPod accessories were all over the floor. Here is a sample from our first scan.
Belkin
Carabineer Case for nano
Flip Case for nano
Folio Case for nano
Auto kit for iPod
TuneCast II – FM Transmitter from an iPod to play over
car radio
Docking adapter for iPod Shuffle
TuneBase for iPod Shuffle
TuneCommand – Wireless remote for iPod
TuneFM – Listen to FM Radio over iPod
TuneStage – Play iPod over home entertainment system
TuneStage – Charge and Sync with PC over USB
TuneTalk – Use iPod as digital voice recorderLogitech
Wireless Headphones for iPod
Portable speakers for iPod and nano
Mm22 portable speakersAltec Lansing
InMotion iM7 plug in speakers
StkaAx is a hand held interactive music and video mixer. Caller “Rocket Fuel for your iPod to create mix and share. $29.95.
Logitech – G15 – Bringing a Display to the Keyboard
It was cute but lame. However, do not dismiss this as the end of displays on keyboards. Logitech ships G15 in 3 weeks. It is just for gamers to monitor their status in playing games. The keyboard has back lit keys for playing in darkened rooms. The key strokes are heavy for game play. The keyboard has many custom keys that the user can program. The display shows CPU status and game status. Logitech has an SDK for others to customize the display. The price for G15 will be $80 and there will be no bundles. The logic behind no bundles is that most gamers already have a “game mouse” and they want a keyboard to fit their needs.
Right on. Sounds like Logitech talked to their game mouse users.
Digitaldeck – Bringing Electronics to Home Media Distribution
The message sounded much like dlna (Digital Living Network Anywhere):
ENTERTAINMENT EVERYWHERE - All of your audio, photo, television and video entertainment is available in any connected room with the touch of a remote.
DISTRIBUTED - DVR:Pause, play and record on your live TV from any connected room, and watch your recordings on any TV.
ACCESS AND CONTROL - Share the DVD player or even your satellite receiver with any connected room in the house.
VERSATILITY - Works with virtually all your existing media – songs, TV, videos, digital photos and more.
The specifications include:
Complete Connected Home Entertainment System
Dedicated Media Server – 200GB
Network Can Move & Control up to 6 Simultaneous Media Streams
Supports: MP3, MPEG 1&2 and JPEG formats
Whole-home DVR with simultaneous recording from multiple tuners
Local A/V source distribution and control from any zone to any zone
IR remote controlled
Easy to use on-screen menu
Utilizes existing CAT-5 cables via 100MB switched Ethernet
At each end point in the home is an eDeck which:
Encodes and decodes analog A/V signals for transport digitally via Ethernet to other eDecks on the network
Switches and controls up to 4 local A/V sources per zone
Transmits and receives IR commands for complete control of all connected A/V devices on the network
Receives media (recorded and live) from MX1000 Server via Ethernet connection
Video resolution: 480i
MPEG encoding: D1 quality
There is a Digital Deck Remote which:
Controls all Digital Deck features and functionalities (Network Mode)
Controls all A/V components on the network (Manual Mode)
Replaces all device remotes
Controls all local devices
Controls devices anywhere on the networkEasy to use with Digital Deck TV-based screen prompts
It sounded that an early vision of the future of home entertainment which has been heard about at many venues.
Slight problem – a typical 3 room system costs $4,000 of which the media PC is an important component of the cost.
The WAVE asked DigitalDeck a number of questions.
Regarding the apparent dnla modeling…
Yes, DigitalDeck is working on a dlna version.
Why not distribute over wireless?
Wireless just does not cut it. We are on top of all the standards including 802.11n and e and nothing meets video distribution quality requirements.
This system is close to the Intel vision of CE. How will VIIV impact your products?
What we are seeing today is another Intel push into CE. We have seen this before and after all the attention Intel generates it disappears from the market. Intel sells nothing but its chips and they have to convince others that they have the best solution. We will have to see what sticks from Intel.
Is not your distribution strategy, media everywhere in the home, just what Hollywood hates?
Yes, but we only implement Fair Use. We are doing what customers want. Yes, we know Hollywood hates Fair Use. For all these reasons we wonder if Blu-Ray with its distribution limitations, even in the home, will be acceptable to consumers.
AMD Talks about 64bit and Dual Core
As the WAVE walked into the AMD booth, our heart was trumped by the Acer Ferrari. This is a striking machine but lame due to the lack of the Windows 64bit OS. With that, we began a conversation with AMD.
The WAVE has looked for 64bit notebooks with native 64 bit Windows and we have found none. Why not on the Ferrari which is one of the first to have the AMD 64bit processor?
It’s an ecosystem issue. There are insufficient drivers available to run 64 bit OS. It will be some months before this happens.
(Note: Toshiba told the WAVE that it will be Spring 2006 before it ships a native 64bit computer.)
If we bought a Ferrari now, there no assurance that it would run 64bit Windows in the future as it is not clear if all the necessary drivers will be written to support this machine – there is no assurance of backwards hardware compatibility on 64bit hardware systems?
That is correct.
The real gains from 64bit will come to users when the ecosystem supports both the hardware and software. That is, motherboards with large RAM addressability and a robust driver library. The users will have to wait?
That is correct.
Does not Intel 3.0 represent significant competition for AMD?
This is just Desktrino.
Universal Electronics Shows Kameleon
Kameleon is not your ordinary remote control. It looked like a soft key remote but had much more. This included the following:
There are 4 products ranging in price from $39.99 to $129.99.
The high end unit has RF transmission with a base station. It can also be upgraded over the phone.
The unique attributes include:
Intelligence Illumination which reduces key clutter by showing display functions based on activity.
Mode animation which provides visual cues on the device being controlled.
Activity animation is visual feedback on the mode or action commands desired.
Learning modes.
Mode specific key labels.
Advance functionality based on the environment being used in including home theaters.
Pepper shows Handheld Computer
This is an 8.4” LCD screen with sides that have a tiny keyboard distributed on each side. Cute. Its features include:
Intel Xscale PXA270
800 X 600 Display
256MB RAM
20GB HD
Linox OS
802.11b
We have our doubts.
Creative shows Face Tracking Web Cam
WebCam Live! Motion caught our attention and many others were lining up to see it. This has motorized CCD camera with VGA resolution that does Pan-n-Tilt, a 76-degree wide-angle lens and face tracking. It can also capture high-resolution panoramic images, 200 degrees, with one click. The camera can be used for remote tracking with images deposited onto a web site and supporting software does motion tracking. The camera is also capable of time lapse video capture. WebCam Live! also supports video IM. Interface is USB 2.0. Price is $149.9.
Belkin – We do not know
Earlier we were struck with the line up of iPod accessories. Now we wanted to know – what sticks in the market?
Belkin’s response was – we cannot predict
Cited was the pink iPod carrying case. It was initially thought that the white case would be the best seller. No it was the pink one and they could hardly keep up with demand.
The market requires very fast response due to the fast rise and fall of consumer interest and the competition.
WAVE Comments
One only had to look at the attendees to realize this is not the general population. It was not a walk down the aisles of Safeway or Wal-Mart. Thus, one must be careful in assuming that the products, styles and interests shown at DigitalLife are a representative of the buying population. This is a segmented audience.
Maybe the audience at the DigitalLife keynotes was an indicator of the market response. Intel did not fill the room which had significant support from teenagers filling up empty seats. Microsoft, in its xBox 360 keynote, had no problem filling the auditorium. One had not idea what Intel was selling and the other bought the product being sold.
The WAVE saw the flood of iPod product accessories. Consistent with similar observations at E3 on product accessories, here at DigitalLife, the approach was similar – throw it on the wall and see what sticks. The company with the most iPod accessories, Belkin, stated it best, we have no idea what will be successful in the market.
In spite of all the hoopla about dual core and x64, consumers have yet to gain anything. 64bit needs an ecosystem, from components to systems, to realize its potential. In spite of having a Windows 64 bit OS, this ecosystem is just not yet present. It is likely this will not happen until Q2 2006 and possibly not until Vista.
Dual core also needs an ecosystem from motherboards to applications which support the silicon and dual cores. But it also benefits significantly from individual use patterns of the computer. Carrying out multiple compute bound tasks can better use dual core processors. It remains to be seen if individual users gain much from dual and possibly more cores.
***ISO 27001 Security Standard Published
October 20, 2005
This standard essentially defines an Information Security Management System (known as an ISMS), and compliments the ISO 17799 'code of practice' standard, which was re-published earlier in the year. It specifies the framework for the design, management and maintenance of information security processes within an organization.
These two standards are closely aligned, but fulfill clear and distinct roles:
ISO 17799
This details many hundreds of individual security controls, which may be selected and applied as part of the security management system.
ISO 27001
This specifies the requirements for the security management system itself. It is this standard, as opposed to ISO 17799, against which certification is offered. ISO 27001 has also been "harmonized" to be compatible with other management standards, such as ISO 9000 and ISO 14000.
Global Impact
The publication of the new standard, earlier versions of which were published as BS7799-2, is likely to herald a rapid increase in interest in both information security and certification. Organizations already certified under BS7799-2 will embark on a transitional route, whereas the international status of the new certification standard is bound to have a global impact in terms of numbers following the certification route generally.
This has already started to manifest itself in terms of the number of pre-orders for the new standard, and the recent membership increases of the International ISO 17799 User Group
Sources
The new standard is offered online via StandardsDirect (BSI):
http://17799.standardsdirect.org
SNV will have it available shortly at Standards Online:
http://www.standards-online.net/InformationSecurityStandard.htm
The support kit for the standard has also been updated to reflect these changes:
Additional information on both these standards can be obtained from the ISO 17799 News website at:
http://17799-news.the-hamster.com
***dExceptional PolyFuel Membrane Durability Enables Over 5,000-Hour Portable Fuel Cell Lifetimes; Crucial Customer Requirement Well Surpassed as Hydrocarbon Technology Keeps on Going
MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif.
Oct. 31, 2005
A critical milestone in the accelerating development of fuel cells for portable electronics applications, such as PDAs, cell phones, or laptop computers, was reached recently as fuel cell membrane developer PolyFuel, Inc. announced that its hydrocarbon DMFC (direct methanol fuel cell) membrane has passed the 5,000-hour mark in durability testing. Industry observers believe that commercially viable portable fuel cells must demonstrate lifetimes in the 2,000-3,000 hour range, a market barrier that PolyFuel has functionally eliminated for fuel cell manufacturers.
According to battery company product specifications, the charge-keeping capability of a typical lithium-ion battery degrades steadily over time and with use. After only one or two years of use, the runtime of a laptop or cell phone battery is reduced to the point where the user experience is significantly impacted.
For example, the runtime of a typical 4-hour laptop battery drops to only about 2.5 hours after 3,000 hours of use. By contrast, fuel cells built with PolyFuel's membrane are reported to continue to deliver nearly their original levels of runtime well past the 2,000 and 3,000 hour marks and are still going strong at 5,000 hours.
Fuel cell membranes are painstakingly-engineered films of various plastic polymers -- resembling stiff cellophane -- that when covered with a catalyst material, enable fuels such as methanol or hydrogen to generate an electric current capable of powering electronic devices, or even automobiles. Unlike batteries, which must be recharged from a wall outlet, fuel cells are simply "resupplied" with a new fuel cartridge. As long as they have fuel they continue to generate power.
In the case of portable electronics, the methanol fuel -- a type of alcohol -- will come in the form of small, lightweight, snap-in cartridges that will share shelf space the world over with batteries and cigarette lighters.
The Heart of the Fuel Cell
In addition to supporting the chemical reaction that generates electricity, the fuel cell membrane -- often called the "heart of the fuel cell" -- additionally separates the fuel, on one side, from air, on the other. The failure modes and lifetime considerations in a fuel cell revolve predominantly around the membrane and its innate durability. Throughout its working life, the membrane must retain its chemical and mechanical nano-architecture -- the microscopic characteristics that allow it to perform its electro-chemical magic.
PolyFuel's durability testing -- which consists of continuous, repetitive, "real-life" on-off power cycles on an array of different prototype fuel cells -- has shown no significant changes in the electro-chemical performance of its membrane, even after 5,000 hours in service. Similar tests, with similar results, have been performed, or are underway, at a number of PolyFuel's consumer electronics and battery manufacturer customers, according to PolyFuel.
Fuel cell membranes for portable applications fall into two families, depending upon the class of polymer that is used to manufacture them. DuPont's Nafion -- an outgrowth of the U.S. space program 40 years ago -- is an example of a "fluorocarbon" membrane -- based upon polytetrafluoroethylene, the non-stick Teflon coating used in frying pans, and the basis for Gore-tex fabrics. By contrast, PolyFuel specializes in "hydrocarbon" membranes, the first example of which -- a DMFC membrane for portable fuel cells -- PolyFuel introduced in early 2004.
According to the company, PolyFuel's hydrocarbon DMFC membranes have since been demonstrated to provide higher performance than the older fluorocarbon membrane technology, enabling portable fuel cell developers to design smaller, lighter, and less expensive fuel cell power supplies for portable electronics products. PolyFuel's DMFC membrane passed PolyFuel's previous durability milestone -- 3,000 hours -- in June 2005.
According to a new report from market researcher NanoMarkets LLC, 2006 is projected to be the take off year for mobile fuel cells, leading to a projected market size of US$1.1 billion by 2009 and US$2.6 billion in 2012.
***Kagan Forecasts Basic Cable Programming Costs Will Average $2.69/Sub in 2009
MONTEREY, Calif.
Oct. 28, 2005
According to Kagan Research, cable's vigorous growth hasn't come without a cost. The basic cable networks spent an average $2.29 per subscriber per year in programming costs in 2004. The top ten cable nets -- among those on the air for five years or longer -- spent more than three times that, averaging among them $7.78/sub/year.
According to the new report, by 2009 the most costly network on any tier, ESPN, will very nearly double its production costs per sub, growing costs 13% annually to reach $47.46/sub/year from last year's level of $25.90/sub/year.
Programming Costs Top Ten Nets(1)
5-Year
2000 2004 CAGR
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ESPN $15.38 $25.90 13.9%
FSN 10.41 14.42 8.5
TNT 6.65 9.27 8.7
USA 3.54 5.13 9.7
TBS 4.34 4.94 3.3
Nickelodeon 3.52 3.97 3
MTV 2.59 3.85 10.4
Lifetime 3.17 3.6 3.2
NBA TV 10.78 3.47 -24.7
FX Network 2.46 3.27 7.4
------------------------------------------ ------- ------- ------
Average $6.28 $7.78 5.5%
(1) Average sub per year for nets on the air five
years or more.
(C) 2005 Kagan Research, LLC estimates. All rights reserved.
Kagan's annual edition of ECONOMICS OF BASIC CABLE NETWORKS 2006 reports that programming costs per sub have stayed essentially flat over the last five years -- slipping just 0.16% since 2000 -- but forecasts they will rebound, growing 3.08% annually to reach an industry average of $2.69/sub/year by 2009.
In general, high programming costs result in higher ratings and ad revenue for cable programmers. "Many were skeptical when FX started spending big bucks for original shows, when TBS began laying out huge sums for movies in an earlier window, and when HBO and Showtime started investing in new original shows," says Derek Baine, senior analyst at Kagan Research. "There have been a few flops but I would say net-net the investment in programming has been a success story."
In addition to programming costs, ECONOMICS OF BASIC CABLE NETWORKS 2006 tracks subscriber growth, revenue, cash flow and comprehensive financial metrics on the sector as a whole. Now available in an electronic edition, the databook provides exclusive Kagan data files and projections in spreadsheet format and includes comprehensive financial metrics on 139 basic cable networks. More than 300 tables -- including current forecasts, analysis and key financial information -- can be accessed to create custom data scenarios, build company profiles and develop comparatives.
The new electronic edition of ECONOMICS OF BASIC CABLE NETWORKS 2006 also offers networks, investors, MSOs, financial analysts and advertising agencies the most up-to-date information, industry projections and other actionable assessments available today.
http://www.kagan.com/EBCN-SL/102805
***MAGNET Conference Invitation Extended
Aalborg University (AAU)
Denmark
11/2/05
MAGNET is an integrated project supported within the Sixth Framework Programme of the EU Commission. The project acronym stands for "My personal Adaptive Global NET", and as the name indicates the project has a profound emphasis on user-centricity, personalization and personal networking. The objective of this user-centric approach is to improve the quality of life for the end-user by introducing new technologies more adapted to the user. MAGNET research focuses on environments to become smarter, more responsive, and more accommodating to the needs of the individual without jeopardizing privacy and security. The MAGNET project has a total cost of 18.14 million euro. The EU Commission has granted 10.00 million euro to the project and the remaining 8.14 million comes from partners. The project has a duration of 24 months, and started out January 1st 2004. The project has 37 partners.
Readers of the WAVE have been specifically invited to the MAGNET Conference "Service and System Aspects of Personal Networks beyond 3G" taking place in Rome, 22-23 November 2005.
Among others, the program includes:
* Eleven presentations on service oriented and system oriented aspects of personal networks beyond 3G
* Panel discussion "Personal Networks: how to build the business?"
* Speech by MAGNET Coordinator, Ramjee Prasad on "Personal Networks paving towards 4G"
* Speech by Ole Mørk Lauridsen, CTO of Terma on "Potentials, Drivers, and Barriers in PN/PAN Services"
* Speech by MAGNET TM, Karsten Vandrup, Nokia on "Intro to MAGNET and MAGNET Beyond"
Please find information about program, venue, registration, etc this website:
For further info, please also visit the MAGNET website at:
http://www.telecom.ntua.gr/magnet/training_week2/
More information on the MAGNET project can be found at:
***Tabor Communications Inc. Announces Collaborative Industry Publication Targeted to Enterprise IT Decision Makers and Business Executives
San Diego, Calif.
November 2, 2005
Tabor Communications Inc. (TCI), publisher of HPCwire, GRIDtoday and producers of the GRIDtoday VIP Summits has announced the development of what it calls a milestone publication, which will be sponsored in part by Intel Corporation, a publishing effort to communicate a collaborative industry vision that comprehends the emergence of Grid, and its broader application across the enterprise referred to as service-oriented IT (service-oriented architecture SOA and service-oriented infrastructure - SOI).
The publication, The Emergence of Grid and Service-Oriented IT: An Industry Vision for Business Success, is made possible in part by a grant from Intel Corporation, the book's primary sponsor. Other industry leading companies collaborating in this publishing effort include Platinum Sponsors BEA, Capgemini, Dell, IBM, Linux Networx and Sun, and Gold Sponsors Data Synapse and Platform Computing.
The book is targeted to senior IT decision makers looking to capitalize on the convergence of best-of-breed solutions, open standards and emerging technologies that are fueling the next generation of business information technology.
The Emergence of Grid and Service-Oriented IT: An Industry Vision for Business Success will be available as a high-quality, full-color glossy print-only publication. The book will present the perspectives of the many pioneers, early adopters, and mainstream enterprise IT innovators who have developed and deployed the technologies, standards, solutions and building blocks that are defining the vision for service-oriented IT. It will be available on the Tabor Communications web site, through a number of book resellers to be announced soon.
For more information on the book or to reserve an advance copy, go to:
http://www.taborcommunications.com/publications
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