 |
The WAVE Report on Digital Media 3D --- Media Creation --- Shared Space ---Published by 4th Wave, Inc.--- Issue #0543------------------10/28/05 |
The WAVE Report is Searchable on
http://www.3dlinks.com
http://www.wave-report.com
--------------------------------------
0543.2 Broadband Access
0543.3 Cell Phone Futures
The Ultra Low Cost Cellular Market: Ignore It at Your Peril, Says ABI Research
0543.4 Disaster Recovery
Survey Says: Improving Disaster Recovery Performance is #1 Priority
0543.5 RFID Certification
---------------------------------
***CEATEC 2005 By John Latta
Tokyo
10/4 – 6/05
Every year we are amazed at how much CEATEC changes. It once was a niche Japanese electronics show but now foreign companies are everywhere. Even CES has a booth. The theme of CEATEC was “The Advancing Ubiquitous Society – Revealing What’s Next, Changing Tomorrow.” We are here to explore the degrees of success of that theme from what we find in the Exposition Hall.
CEATEC is still a conference where Japanese companies make a major statement to the Japanese on technology and the future directions of CE in Japan. With the globalization of CEATEC and increasing attendance from overseas, CEATEC is, by inference, a statement to the rest of the world.
The major change this year is in the conference program. The first day was nearly consumed by keynotes. Only two counted and, aside from the product lines, that is the first part of our report.
Intel – We are here to help you
John MacDonald, VP, Digital Home Group, Intel did a very good job of presenting to the Japanese audience. With the most elaborate staging of any of the keynotes, he had multiple demos and a large screen display. His presentation was slow and concise – excellent for the translators and the audience. All the demos used Japanese products to show how Intel’s technology could be used. Highlights include.
At Intel we only want to deliver what individuals want. The axes we are focusing on include:
Ease of use; Performance and Simple Connectivity.
The Intel Digital Home Platform is based on:
Standards Platform Innovation
Standards are the sole of innovation.
Our new initiative is VIIV and this will yield products byQ1 2006. This foundation platform is based on entertainment and meeting consumer needs. Specifically it accomplishes what we described as necessary for the Intel Digital Home Platform. For example, we can create an integrated media server. Dual core is required for this and VIIV delivers this.
At Intel we believe that our architecture should be able to operate in any device. (A small form factor which is the size of a palm was held up – called the Ultra Mobil PC. This will operate all day on a single charge of the battery.)
Our investment in Oplus was driven by the need to bring the highest image quality to a video display at the lowest cost.
In 2005 there will be 5m phones with TV but this will leap to 100m by 2009.
Intel has been able to combine all of its technology into the first system on a chip. (Up was held a 300mm wafer to show the first product output from these efforts.)
There must be an infrastructure to connect these devices. Intel is making investments in WiMAX but the company is network agnostic.
Our efforts go beyond the CE market and include:
Health Care Education Home Automation
Convergence is behind us, the entertainment industry is ahead of us.
Demos were shown of:
Fujitsu CE appliance which could support video from a Sony camcorder. This is on the NAPA platform.
Onkyo Entertainment Hub
Hitachi 3D user I/F
Large screen navigation technology
Sony – A New Company has Emerged
Howard Stringer, Chairman and CEO, Sony gave a gattling gun presentation. There were a few PP charts but this was only a back drop to the words he spoke. Howard was brought in to shake up Sony. It is clear he is in charge and doing this.
Sony now faces competition like never before. It comes from Korea, China and even companies in the PC industry.
The entire CE industry faces the same dilemma. We are in a race to the bottom much like the IT industry.
We must free ourselves of the past.
Sony has fallen short of the competition and in execution.
At Sony we must:
Restructure Sharpen our focus Marry content and technology for a new user experience
At Sony we must have a more horizontal structure to compete. The silo walls keep old ways in. You will see a more nimble Sony.
There will be a new generation of products coming.
Our heritage is “champion products” and we will do this again.
The focus of the company will also be narrowed to include:
Television Digital Imaging and Walkman type products
An enormous success has been the PSP which sold 6m units in only 9 months. We will see this platform expand by using its WiFi capabilities and the ability to watch video. Watch for a high capacity memory stick which will enable video on the PSP.
All studios support UMD, for the PSP, except one.
There have now been sold over 200m Playstations.
The PS3 due in the spring will bring HD – high drama.
Within our product line today there is only 35% penetration of HD. By 2007 it will be 70%.
At Sony we are committed to cell technology. The PS3 is just the beginning. You will see cell technology used throughout our product line.
Sony will introduce a home server based on cell technology.
There will be many home appliances coming based on cell technology. We expect to have the ability to automatically search and catalog video with this technology.
Another technology in which we are making a major investment is OLED.
Sony will use technology to gain a sustainable competitive advantage.
Blu-Ray is the format of choice and we will continue to push this. The recent announcement by Paramount shows the strength of this technology. Using Blu-Ray, we are able to store 23 hours of HD content. We believe that Blu-Ray will have the same impact on the market that DVD did.
Sony will compete with Apple. All of Sony has a common aim – to win in audio.
There is one area where no company can compete with Sony – we can combine technology with content like no other.
We have content around the world and this includes: India, Germany and China.
Technology is the only way to overcome commodization.
Sony is making a major investment in software. We will open new software centers in the US and China.
Sony expects to achieve a consistent software architecture across all its products.
Sony is committed to remain on the high road of innovation. You will see a new Sony.
Calibrating CEATEC - How does this compare with prior years?
What's Up?
Ubiquitous computing
The theme is “Advancing Ubiquitous Society” but we have not see the same level of awareness of what ubiquitous computing is at this event compared to that at Sony CSL or in Europe.
All Forms of Displays
Especially HD and LCD. Displays are everywhere. The impact of HD on the market is a big opportunity and Japan is ready to move product.
University Research
The section devoted to research is larger this year and has more interesting exhibits
What is the Same?
Cell Phone Frenzy
Cell phones are like wildfire here. Intense interest in the latest features and designs.
Superb Electronic Components
We continue to marvel at the precision and abundance of components from capacitors to antennas to ASICs to miniature motors.
What is Down?
Bluetooth
In spite of several companies with modules, the presence of Bluetooth components is off but it is increasingly embedded and taken from granted.
DLNA
In spite of Intel making a big deal of this we just do not see many integrated home networks shown on the floor. Like last year DLNA has its own booth.
OLED
There are a few examples which show progress but overall the number of examples is down.
Robots
Robots always draw a crowd here. But only Hitachi had much of a display.
SIP/VoIP
This was big last year and has virtually disappeared.
Future Product concepts
In prior shows one of the best aspect of CEATECs were the speculative future products. This is seldom seen here now.
Technology from Japan – On the Exhibit Hall Floor
Anruka Laboratories
Ensphered Vision – A Personal Cave
Digital Hollywood University, Anraku Laboratory (Crossing Media Laboratory) showed a walk in spherical display. This was suspended above the floor and rotated 360 degrees with the individual. Part of the sphere was open that allowed the person to walk in. Sitting in the bottom of the sphere about shoulder height was a mouse. Right mouse zoom in left mouse zoom out. The sphere had a encompassing view of the environment one is in. The illusion was quite impressive. Similar to a VR cave but without 3D.
Fujitsu
UbiWall
The closest we have seen to an Agora type public display was in the Fujitsu booth called UbiWall. This is a large vertically mounted display. It can interact with touch or an RFID card. The display can be customized by individual. Thus, as one passes the display and puts up an RFID card the display shows relevant information to you. The example shown was for airline gates to your flight. As one walks up and passes the RFID card the walking path to the gates to your flight is shown. In spite of the trivial example the concept shows what customized public displays can do. Only two problems – price is 3,000,000¥ and it requires an infrastructure to be most effective, i.e., RFID cards and more. Due on sale Summer 2006.
Hitachi
Wearable PC System with HMD and Camera Integrated
Hitachi Zosen had an HMD which included both a display for one eye and a camera integrated into the HMD. The output of this was fed to a belt mounted PC which has a WiFi link to another PC. A finger mouse was held in one hand.
Konica
See Thru Glasses
Konica Minolta showed a “Holographic See-through Browser.” This is similar to the innovative HMD seen at Wearable Computer conference by Lumus Vision from Israel. Konica Minolta claims full color and the image supported this. One of the problems with HOE is that they have high chromatic dispersion. Konica Minolta has only one illumination source but three color filters to limit the dispersion. Yet, there would still be problems when only one HOE is used due to the different imaging properties at each wavelength. Discussions in the booth did not resolve this issue. The overall ID was very good and it looks like a stylish pair of glasses. We did not wear this but only saw an image on a monitor. Konica Minolta stated they have no current product plans.
JVC
JVC Everio Refinements
We continue to be impressed with the JVC Everio video and still camera. Shown here is the latest version: GZ- MC500. It has 3 1.3m pixel CCDs for video and a 5m pixel still camera. All of this easily fits in the palm of the hand and records on a microdrive which can be plugged into a PC Card slot.
Maxell
Maxell with Anoto Pen
Compared to last year the volume of this booth on the Anoto pen has fallen off greatly. They were still trying to push the Digital Penit product but it seemed lame.
Mitsubishi
Imaging Thru the Finger to get a Fingerprint
Mitsubishi was showing another variation on biometrics with a small fingerprint reader. This has the unusual ability to light the finger from the top so that the image was actually created by light which passed through the finger. LED illumination was used. We tried it but the enrollment process failed a number of times.
Seamless Dome Display with Multiple Projectors
The height of the dome was approximately 10’ and there were 5 projectors around the periphery. One walked to the center of the sphere and looked to the display. The display was not 3D which required glasses but the visual impact was excellent. One could not see any seams. Unfortunately the display was computer generated, which it almost had to be, thus the imagery artificial. Mitsubishi called this an Immersive Visualization Experience with Hemisphere Screen.
NHK
NHK – Roll Out Flexible Display Concept
The concepts certainly implied the technology for flexible displays are not far away. One concept was similar to that seen before that the OLED conferences – A display that rolls out of its container. Another display actually worked but the resolution was crude.
NTT Dokomo
Standing in Line to Put your Finger in Your Ear
NTT DoCoMo was showing a refinement of the UbiButton technology seen last year called Yubi-Wa that was drawing crowds 4 deep. This is a finger mounted device which both detects the movement of the fingers and has a speaker. One can move fingers together to issue commands to a cell phone but the command depth is not sufficient to allow the phone to be dialed. The most unusual aspect of the device is that when one has it mounted on a finger sound transmits via conduction over the finger. The demonstration has listeners putting the finger in their ear to hear the phone. Even the Crown Prince who came to CEATEC on Tuesday did it. It was not at all clear why one would want this product.
Omron
Face Recognition Silicon for Cell Phones
Omron had OkaoVision V2 which was called Owner Verification for camera equipped mobile phones. It was claimed high accuracy in a form factor easily integrated into phones. The poser implied this module could recognize much more including locations and documents.
Panasonic
Incredible Image Quality on 1080P Plasma Panel
Panasonic was showing a PDP models 65V PX500, 65”, and the 50V PX500, 50”. The image quality was the best seen in a flat panel. With vivid colors the image just leapt from the screen.
UniPhier – Integrated Platform for Digital Consumer Electronics
Panasonic was advocating its development environment for consumer electronics. This is based on an LSI chip set for AV. Examples were shown on a cell phone, television and video media player. The chip illustration was an MPEG-2 decoder.
Pioneer
Pioneer Shows Active Matrix OLED
Claiming that it “Creates History of OLED” Tohoku Pioneer had a small Active Matrix OLED product called a portable DVD player. They were claiming 15,000 hour to ½ brightness.
Floating Vision 3D and Haruka
In one of the most unusual 3D displays Pioneer was showing an autostereoscopic display which was interactive. I put my finger into the display of falling water and the water would divert around the finger. In another display called Haruka, which appeared to be based on integral photography with the image suspended in air, this was simulating a young woman in an office.
Rohm
Rohm Shows Flexible Display
The flexibility of this display was impressive, however, its display output was not seen. Using OLED materials Rohm claimed both a flat and flexible display.
Toshiba
Fuel Cells Get Closer
Toshiba showed improved fuel cells in the most extensive exhibit yet. These were the same Direct Methanol Fuel Cells. Applications included: multimedia PC, Silicon audio player, cell phone, and Bluetooth headset. They claimed the worlds smallest fuel cell – about the size of a finger.
Toshiba 3D LCD Autostereoscopic Display is a Game Play Table
Last year there were many examples of 3D LCD displays. This year Toshiba went another step and showed examples in use. One of the most striking was a dice game table – the depth illusion was impressive. Another had a glass ring suspended above the display which served as a table. This ring had the impact of looking like a fish bowl. As one looked into the display, framed by the ring, there were fishing swimming in the ring which looked just like a fish bowl. Uncanny.
Toshiba Shows Cell Reference Set and Development Environment
Drawing large crowds for its Cell demonstration Toshiba had a mature environment to show. The emphasis was on video applications but the development environment can be much more general purpose. In the booth was the Cell Broadband Engine in both a chip set and a reference set. The latter being a box which provided a development environment. Software tools were also being shown which include an Application Model.
Toyota
Toyota White OLED Light Source
In a first Toyota was using OLED technology to create a while light source. Panels of .44’, 1.5” and 2.5” were shown.
Tyco
Table Top Display by Tyco
We have seen this before but it is one of the few which has strong ID and clean walk up characteristics. The information content is circular which is consistent with the table shape.
University of Tsukuba
Technology to help Limbs
The University of Tsukuba had a manikin fitted with components that covered arms and legs. This was called Hybrid Assistive Limbs (HAL). Its purpose is to assist an individual with disable limbs to help walk and increase mobility.
Others
Another Format War
In spite of all the words that consumers will never again face the BetaMax vs. VHS debacle it unfolded here at CEATEC. Two big booths one for HD DVD and the other Blu Ray put the consumers in the center of the inability of CE companies to agree.
In the Sky – Sky Remote Meeting V 2.0
This is a multipoint video conferencing system. Video cameras on multiple PCs can be seen on each PC in the conference as an independent window. Works with Windows.
WAVE Comments
The globalization of CEATEC went further than before. Canada, China, Taiwan and Korea had multiple companies in pavilions but these were small booths of supplier companies. Even with the globalization of CEATEC, there is one major change which we doubt will happen any time soon – a large Samsung CE exhibit.
CE Competition
CEATEC was unusual with same day keynotes by Intel and Sony. This was an important statement by Howard Stringer, Chairman and CEO, Sony. In spite of the positioning by each for mind share this is not where the market battles will be fought. It will be between Sony and Samsung. Both provide a full line of CE products. Intel has no such product suite. Yet, Sony did acknowledge that it is locked in battle with Apple in the music distribution business. The CE business has become more fragmented and this complicates efforts on Sony’s part to regain a leadership role. But in the battle between Intel and Sony we have to give it to Sony. Overall we were impressed with Howard Stringer.
Display Technology
Having been to many display events, we still came away impressed with the progress in display technology at CEATEC. PDP showed just incredible images. Many booths had under glass the back panel of the generation -1 and current generation PDPs. Manufacturers are making significant progress in reducing the parts count while lowering the cost and raising reliability. Yet, the quality was not just from the panels themselves but the underlying digital processing with a number of companies, including Sony and Panasonic, touting their digital television chip technology.
Cell Phones
Seldom do we see such frenzy over mass market technology as with the Japanese and their cell phones. The NTT DoCoMo booth was crazy. We have no idea what the redeeming value of Yubi-Wa is but this has to set some type of record for individuals waiting in line to put a finger in their ear to hear a cell phone.
In spite of this enthusiasm, Japan has not been nearly as effective in exporting its technology, especially in hand sets, as the Koreans. The important point of all of this is that the cell phone is an accepted if not necessary fact of life in Japan. As its utility increases, this will only rise. The cell phone is one expression of ubiquitous technology.
Ambient Biometrics
The notion of ambient biometrics is a right one. At CEATEC we saw a chip for embedding facial recognition in a cell phone. But one has to be careful of point technologies. For ambient biometrics to work it has to be as widespread as driver’s licenses and equally as important machine readable driver’s licenses. As we saw in the Fujitsu UBWALL demo there has to be an underlying infrastructure to support personalization. Thus, ambient biometrics requires an ecosystem to work effectively. This is certainly the case in the large border crossing and national identity projects. Ambient biometrics has barely begun.
Ubiquitous X
At other events we hear of Ubiquitous Intelligence or Ubiquitous Networking but here at CEATEC the term Ubiquitous Society rang hollow. A ubiquitous office on the floor was just a networked office with chairs, work surfaces and tables. As were heard at the Ubicomp conference in Tokyo in September Sony CSL has a very comprehensive and strategic view of Ubiquitous Computing. This has not yet moved into others parts of Japan, based on what we saw at CEATEC.
Cell Computing
Sony is high on it, Toshiba reeled in crowds and we were surprised at the relative maturing of the technology – at least from a trade show perspectives. The WAVE has seen many processor architectures and the vast majority fail to establish an enduring presence. Cell has one major advantage – it has an application NOW – PS3. We wait to see if the technology will go beyond this niche. In the Toshiba booth the emphasis was on video but its utility cannot stop there.
***Broadband Mapping around the World
October 18, 2005
As an aide to visualising the broadband data that is being published by Point Topic, a number of maps will be produced every quarter depicting a number of different measures of broadband, DSL and cable growth and penetration for the countries that are profiled.
The first series has just been published and some samples can be viewed on the Point Topic site. The maps that have been produced this quarter are:
- Penetration of Broadband per 100 People, Q2 2005 World Overview, Europe, Americas, Asia-Pacific
- Penetration of Broadband per 100 Households, Q2 2005 World Overview, Europe, Americas, Asia-Pacific
- Growth of Broadband Lines in %, Q4 2004 - Q2 2005 World Overview, Europe, Americas, Asia-Pacific
- Growth of DSL Lines in %, Q4 2004 - Q2 2005 World Overview, Europe, Americas, Asia-Pacific
- Growth of Cable Modem Lines in %, Q4 2004 - Q2 2005 World Overview, Europe, Americas, Asia-Pacific
***The Ultra Low Cost Cellular Market: Ignore It at Your Peril, Says ABI Research
OYSTER BAY, N.Y. Oct. 20, 2005
While 80% of the world's population lives within range of a cellular network, only 25% of it subscribes to a mobile phone service. This means there are upwards of three billion potential customers for cellular. That, according to ABI Research, is the good news. The bad news is that the majority of this segment lives in the "emerging" economies of the world, and finds the cost of a mobile handset prohibitive.
The GSM association has set a target of less than US$30 for an Ultra Low Cost (ULC) handset. The first question that each semiconductor and handset vendor will probably ask is, "Why play in the ULC segment at all, since it is clear that profits are going to be very compressed in this space?" Secondly, the low end is all about cost, which means there will be very little opportunity to differentiate. Finally, there is no certainty that once ULC handsets are built, there will be assured sales.
Perhaps this explains why some top tier handset and semiconductor manufacturers are absent from ULC discussions and claim that they want to focus only on the high end. But ABI Research believes that could be a dangerous strategy.
ABI Research's concludion - for the handset manufacturer, the ULC market's high volumes imply supplier pricing and market leverage. And the pricing leverage may apply all the way to the top handset tiers, where profits are high. Semiconductor vendors' interest should center around fab utilization, and around amortizing the cost of innovation. Single-chip technology, advanced power management and signal processing, which are necessary to enable ULC, will also be necessary for the high tiers, so the costs of R&D can be recouped.
ABI Research's new study, "Ultra Low Cost Cellular Handsets for Emerging World Markets" discusses these issues in detail, examining market drivers and inhibitors, business models, technology trends, forecasts and much more.
***Survey Says: Improving Disaster Recovery Performance is #1 Priority; IT Professionals Expect CDP to be Integrated With Existing Products
ORLANDO, Fla. Oct. 24, 2005
A new survey of IT professionals reveals that disaster recovery performance has moved to the top of their priority list, with more emphasis being placed on achieving recovery objectives than on simple data protection. The survey reports that remote (asynchronous) replication will be deployed more than any other solution over the next 12 months, with more than half of respondents saying they intend to implement a disaster recovery program in-house.
Additional survey findings indicate that CDP (Continuous Data Protection), while viewed as a beneficial enabler, is seen by the majority of respondents as lacking clarity of the value proposition. Also, respondents resoundingly indicated they expect CDP to be available as an integrated feature within one of their current tools, rather than as an additional piece of software, which could create additional integration challenges.
The online survey was conducted from mid-September to early October 2005 by the Data Management Institute and Toigo Partners International in conjunction with Topio. The results were released at the Storage Networking World conference, where Topio is a contributing sponsor.
The survey reveals a clear shift in thinking among respondents away from a traditional "backup/restore" mentality toward effective disaster recovery, with top emphasis placed on recovery performance. More than half of the respondents said their top priority was to either implement or improve on the time needed to recover key applications and data in the event of a disaster, with almost two-thirds (64%) saying they have clearly defined recovery policies and objectives for that information.
The survey queried customers about their data protection and recovery challenges, and reported that a majority (51%) said for CDP to make inroads in the data protection and recovery market, its benefits must be integrated into solutions they already own, and not as a standalone product.
The survey also found that other existing technologies appear to be gaining greater traction with customers; 59% reported they are either using asynchronous replication or will implement it by the end of 2006 for offsite data protection and disaster recovery, reflecting more than twice the number for CDP during the same time period.
The survey also reported that:
-- While the boardroom is increasingly influencing disaster recovery plans (22%), IT staffs are still more likely to be the primary driver behind implementation (30%) of a corporate disaster recovery plan.
-- 61% of all respondents said their companies already have implemented their own remote site as part of a disaster recovery strategy; 24% said they are using a third-party provider of such services. Only 10% said they have no plans to implement offsite disaster recovery.
-- Disk-to-disk backup is rivaling tape backup as the preferred method of local data backup and restore; 83% of all respondents said they would back up data to disk by the end of next year, while 92% said they are still using tape.
-- Finding cost-effective technology remains the biggest barrier in successfully implementing a disaster recovery plan. (21% cited cost-effectiveness as their top challenge, with another 18% saying their largest challenge is understanding which technologies best meet their requirements).
***CompTIA RFID+ Certification Beta Exam Available This Month
OAKBROOK TERRACE, Ill. Oct. 19, 2005
The Computing Technology Industry Association (CompTIA) has announced that the beta exam for its new CompTIA RFID+ certification, a vendor-neutral professional credential to validate knowledge and skill in working with radio frequency identification technology (RFID), will be available on October 31, 2005.
The new beta exam (RF1-001) is intended for individuals with a foundational knowledge of RFID technology and between six and twenty-four months of experience in the RFID industry. Individuals who pass the beta exam will be certified as a CompTIA RFID+ professional.
The exam will cover topics related to the installation, configuration and maintenance of RFID hardware and device software, including interrogation zone basics, testing and troubleshooting, standards and regulations, tag knowledge, design selection, installation, site analysis, RF physics, and RFID peripherals. Complete beta exam objectives are available at:
http://www.comptia.org/certification/rfid/objectives.aspx
The beta test is used to ensure that the final certification exam is fair and reliable. Candidates who take the beta exam are helping CompTIA to establish the appropriate requirements for the RFID certification. After a targeted number of candidates have taken the exam, the results are analyzed, the best questions are identified and a passing exam score is established. The permanent CompTIA RFID+ certification exam will be available in early 2006.
There is a $75 fee for the beta exam to cover delivery and publication costs. The fee is a 66-percent discount off the regular non-member exam price of $225 for CompTIA RFID+ certification. Registration for the CompTIA RFID+ beta exam is available through Thomson Prometric and Pearson VUE.
http://www.comptia.org/registerforexam
--------------------------------------
Copyright 2005 4th WAVE, Inc.
To subscribe to WAVE go to
To unsubscribe also use the Wave Report Home page or send the preformatted UNSUBSCRIBE message:
Previous issues of WAVE, as well as other info can be found at
http://www.wave-report.com
http://www.3dlinks.com
Comments on or questions about the WAVE may be sent to:
or the below individuals below:
John N. Latta - Editor-In-Chief
Michael Robertson - Web Editor
The WAVE Report may be redistributed in full for individual readership and posted to newsgroups, Web, and FTP sites. This publication may not be reprinted or redistributed for profit. Short quotes are permitted but must be attributed to the WAVE Report. 4th Wave retains the copyright to the WAVE Report.