The WAVE Report is Searchable on http://www.3dlinks.com -------------------------------------- 0539.2 Flat-Screen Technology 0539.3 Growing Media Trends 0539.4 Home Networking
0539.5 IM Security Threats
0539.6 Longer Life Batteries --------------------------------- ***VoiceCon Fall 2005 San Diego, CA The convergence of voice and data is coming. One unified network infrastructure will make the management and operations of the IT and communications backbone of the enterprise vastly easier. That is the promise. But here at VoiceCon Fall 2005, we came away with market dynamics much less formed and certain. At the center is Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) which is widely praised. Converged IT and communications is a promise unfilled. The vendors both fight convergence and hope for it. Yet, the enterprise buyers have yet to be convinced the ROI is there. Thus, convergence is a problematical process of replacing old with the newly converged, maybe. Buyer pull has yet to materialize. This is the first Fall edition of VoiceCon. The conference has run many years and now is happening twice a year. The turn out is good and enterprise buyers are looking for answers. There is a robust but small exhibit area. The focus is on the convergence of enterprise communications. The WAVE coverage of this event will differ from the usual. Rather,
than provide a talk by talk summary we will build on key points and relate
what was said by the speakers. Convergence – The Promise The logic, at least from vendor perspective, is strong: The enterprise needs only one network which is Ethernet and IP based, for both data and voice communications. Need a phone - just plug it into the data infrastructure. To enable mobility, walk around with VoWLAN phones which may be combined with a PDA or notebooks and eventually cell phones. The logic, from a buyer perspective, is less strong. Enterprise applications communicate with employees on their converged devices. The ideal of one number for all individual communications with fully implemented presence makes contact trivial. Call centers are more efficient due to integration. The savvy buyer can get phones from one source, the call processor from another and the gateway from another. Buyers have great control of vendor selection due to high levels of interoperability, enabled by SIP. The phone system is like buying PCs from different companies. The problem – this is 4 – 5
years away. Convergence – The Reality We will use a market forces approach to best characterize the market dynamics.
Is IP Communications Nirvana Pygal? As the WAVE heard many times here at
VoiceCon, the future of IP communications is a rich environment where
one can be contacted 7 X 24 with many services which include: voice,
video, messaging and e-mail based on presence which will allow for
one to one and one to many communications and intense collaboration.
All of this is enabled by rich clients which will populate desktops,
PDAs and even phones which make ready access possible worldwide. We
came away wondering – is
this just technical distraction? For many individuals will not coping
with rich functionality and omnipresent communications mean less work?
Yes, some jobs can benefit but if this is the case it only implies
a segmented and non-horizontal market. More important, will individuals
want to be bothered by such distractions from the family as work makes
it harder and harder to achieve such time. UMA Technology Migrates to 3GPP UMA Unlicensed Mobile Access was an independent standards effort to integrate unlicensed with licensed wireless. It is summarized below:
The participants included:
As of June 19, 2005, with the completion of its specification on Generic
Access to A/Bb, and its support in 3GPP Release 6, the efforts of the
UMA are now folded into 3GPP. This validates the development of networks
which support both 802.11/Bluetooth networks with GSM. Motorola Implements Convergence with the Person Although not citing UMA, Motorola has implemented something similar. The mantra for their efforts is what they describe as the only real convergence – at the person. That is, when wired and wireless converge it has meaning only with the individual. Consistent with this they have implemented the following:
Motorota Fills Mobility Hole Motorola presented its CN620 phone and associated infrastructure. Motorola describes the CN620 as a mobile desktop phone – “move the phone to the location.” This is seen as a mobile desktop phone not a cellular phone. It seamlessly migrates between an internal enterprise 802.11 network and GSM. Partners include Avaya, Proxim and Cisco. No carrier offerings have been announced but SBC is running a trial. Motorola made the strongest business case yet for such a service and capability. It is expected that the phone will be bought by the enterprise and not the carriers. The phone has push-to-talk capability. The phone only works over 802.11a networks and in conversations with Motorola they used this band because it better supports voice and more channels allow for better frequency reuse. Another key reason is better and more consistent voice quality. However, Motorola admits that this will require careful wireless engineering in the enterprise to assure seamless operation between access points. The battery and power saving technology is impressive: 3 hours talk time on WLAN and 5 hours on GSM. The largest problem faced by Motorola is security. Supported are: 802.11I within the enterprise and outside the enterprise VPN and IPSec. Given that the CN620 is positioned as a mobile desktop phone, it has many of the PBX features. A simple one is hold which is not present on cellular. One of the impacts of this is that enterprise customers are asking the carriers – why cannot we have more PBX like features on cellular phones? The economics are especially interesting. Most of the cellular phones in enterprises are reimbursed as an expense item. But 30% to 50% of the mobile calls occur when the phone is within the confines of the enterprise. Thus, there is a significant gain to better control the cell phone costs and to integrate within and external use. The CN620 is to address this. The more complex issue is – Why would a carrier dare offer a service that would support the CN620. Motorola makes the argument that here is a service that does not need a phone subsidy and has the carrier deal directly with the enterprise. Further, once the enterprise has adopted the phone, it is a large enterprise sale that cannot normally be achieved, due to the individual purchases of phones which are expensed. It remains to be seen if the carriers accept the prospect of a phone
that they do not control and especially one which may be perceived as
lowering the minutes billed on the network. However, the WAVE came away
impressed that Motorola has used IP telephony and SIP to address a missing
hole of individual mobility in the enterprise. BridgePort Networks Shows How to Integrate VoIP with Cellular, Home and Enterprises Using a more carrier centric approach BridgePort Networks described its Network Convergence Gateway. This is purchased by carriers and operates as a bridge between external SIP VoIP and the mobile network. This box acts just like another switch on the mobile network. On the Internet side is acts as a SIP Register and Proxy. The box operates on both GSM and CDMA networks. It is claimed that the gateway will support the migration to 3G/IMS. One of the advantages of this gateway is that it will work with phones in the home, where there is a wireless router, the enterprise and in public access spots. BridgePort also cites that it is possible to extend Enterprise call features into the mobile network. The only operator cited using this gateway, IMC in Iceland. To support building the ecosystem BridgePort Networks cites the Mobile
IGNITE ((Mobile Integrated Go-to-Market Network IP Telephony Experience)
Alliance. This is to allow for interoperable networks that support SIP
and IMS. Peer-to-Peer Enterprise VoIP – Not Ready As VoiceCon ended there was one session
on Peer-to-Peer VoIP. Bottom line – not ready for prime time.
Too many issues at this stage of development. Peer-to-Peer VoIP The two presenters were: Jeff Fried, CTO Empirix and John Appler, VP, Popular Telephony. John focused on the advancements in the technology. In particular, he discussed the use of Distributed Hash Tables (DHT) as a means to implement a distributed communications architecture. This avoids detrimental effects of P2P telephony on network performance. It also allows for dispersed unicast communications rather than multicast. The other component is uniform peer ID systems to allow for scalable growth. But when it comes to E911 and CALEA, John was uncertain how compliance could be accomplished. The architecture which Popular Telephony advocates is a serverless network. Files on the network support voice mail, user administration, call detail and more. These are actually distributed over the network. The network nodes are PCs, PDA, cell phones and more. The argument was made that this does not create any additional card cost. But the details on the architecture were limited. When it came to a recommendation on Peer-to-Peer VoIP, John only stated that beta sites are running in the US and Europe. Claims were made that an “order of magnitude reduction in initial and ongoing costs” is possible. Jeff was more direct when he stated that VoIP is not ready for “prime time” but that it is coming anyway. There are many quality implications of which security threats are real. His final caution is that the latency demands of VoIP and the need to manage network usage make VoIP a challenge. Empirix did a survey of companies and found that 63% would be concerned about putting a VoIP phone on the CEO’s desk. When it came to applications, Empirix found that 150 out of 177 respondents viewed the value of VoIP support of “general telephony” important. 102 saw messaging as an important application and 82 toll bypass. The major quality concerns are in voice (47%), security (25%) and interoperability (8%). Testing at Empirix found issues in network micro-congestion, route change delays, and losses from route changes. Overall this assessment was the most cautious of any presented at the
conference. WAVE Comments The convergence of IT and voice communications is a slowly emerging market. It blends two very different technical, organizational and business cultures. Think of making everything, from products to services, a commodity. The line between voice and IT no longer exists. The problem is that no one has a clear idea what the benefit is to the end user, be it a consumer or enterprise. Yes, we hear all the arguments about more features but this fragments the ROI proposition across enterprises. What is good for one enterprise may not be good for another. Thus, at VoiceCon Fall 2005 we find the forces typical of emerging markets that seek to tear apart existing markets interesting. But this alone is not sufficient to make a sustainable market. Critically missing are compelling uses and integration with mobile. We came away from the sessions asking – What is missing? Given the enterprise focus of this event, the one area left open is mobility. Today something like 80% of the mobile phones used in enterprises are reimbursed and the TCO is $130/month and rising. Some CIOs see this as just another device to support in the enterprise and one whose cost is not under control. The cell phone implements mobility ad hoc and largely not related to the enterprise. This is about to change. Motorola and BridgePort showed how it can be done. Clearly Europe is well ahead of the US in terms of standards when UMA was folded into 3GPP. The WAVE assessment is that: A coherent approach to enterprise mobility is needed and solutions are appearing; Technology is not the issue; Business models are undefined with the carriers being either at the center of enablement or lack of support. Extending the enterprise with mobility, as a part of the IT infrastructure,
has a close parallel with what the cell phone did for consumers. ***Headwaters NanoKinetix Announces Nano-Scientist to Break Through Impasse in Flat-Screened TV Technology LAWRENCEVILLE, N.J. Headwaters NanoKinetix has announced the development of a technology that may allow for the production of flat-screen televisions that are higher-quality yet less expensive than ones currently on the market. Until now, the technology underpinning the fashionably slim monitors has limited both their size and life expectancy. Dr. Bing Zhou, a pioneering molecular scientist at NanoKinetix, a research lab in Lawrenceville, New Jersey has developed a process that has the potential to overcome the limitations of the two predominant ways to make flat-screen monitors -- liquid-crystal-display (LCD) and plasma Digital Light Processing (DLP(TM)). An LCD monitor delivers high-quality pictures, but requires liquid crystals which are "grown" using an expensive and time-consuming process. The relatively high probability of imperfections in large crystal clusters limits the dimensions of LCD TVs to no bigger than 35 to 40 inches. Plasma monitors deliver bright colors and clarity without size limitations, but at the cost of expensive materials and a usable product life between 4 and 5 years. After that, picture quality begins to deteriorate and fade. Polymeric crystals -- synthesized by a chemical process based on nanotechnology -- can overcome both the high costs and inherent imperfections of current technology, but until now no one has been able to jump the hurdles to making them. The answer lies in Dr. Zhou's unique and patented method of nanoparticle control for an even and cost-effective application of a super-thin coating of highly conductive metallic material, such as copper, palladium, or platinum, perhaps as thin as a single molecule, to the surface of polymers to form a radically new kind of light-emitting diode. Nanotechnology will enable the production of high-quality, long-life, flat-screen television monitors at a fraction of the cost of today's devices. While these new metal-coated screens will still have a finite life-span, they will last much longer, and will deliver brighter and clearer pictures, than the best of today's LCDs and DLPs. And that's just the beginning. One day Dr. Zhou's nanomaterials may make flat-screens that last twice as long as today's plasma TVs, cost half as much, and, with organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs), have none of the trace metals that can deteriorate picture quality over time. Dr. Zhou thinks "outside the box" and envisions a day when nanotechnology will enable manufacturers to produce truly cutting-edge flat TV devices-- millimeter-thin screens in any size to fit any room, able to be rolled up for convenient transport. http://www.htigrp.com/nano.asp ***Blogging, RSS, and Social Networking Rising Steadily, According To New Data Unveiled At Forrester Research's Consumer Forum 2005; Apple, NFL, Hewlett-Packard, Target, And Whirlpool To Keynote NEW YORK The number of consumers who are tuning out traditional media and advertising, and using consumer-to-consumer communication like blogging, mobile messaging, comparison shopping sites, word-of-mouth marketing, and peer-to-peer networks continues to rise. These technologies will have a significant impact on the way companies uncover consumer insight and accelerate the innovation of products, services, and design. According to new data unveiled by Forrester Research, Inc. at its annual Consumer Forum: -- Blogging: Ten percent of consumers read blogs once a week or more, compared with 5 percent in 2004. -- Real Simple
Syndication (RSS): Six percent of consumers use RSS feeds once a week
or more, compared with 2 -- Social networking:
Six percent of consumers use social networking sites once a week or
more, compared with 4 Effective businesses are re-orienting their innovation process from an authoritarian "top-down" approach to more of a "bottom-up" one using technologies -- such as smart point-of-sale systems -- and insights from consumer-to-consumer communication -- such as blogs and social networking sites -- to incorporate a higher level of customer input into the innovation process, an approach Forrester calls "consumer-driven innovation." The data referenced in this release is from Forrester's Devices & Access Online Survey of 5,279 North American consumers. The survey was fielded in July 2005. ***HomePlug Powerline Technology Conference Launches with Global Vision and Leadership SAN FRANCISCO The HomePlug Powerline Alliance kicked off its inaugural industry-wide event, the HomePlug Powerline Technology Conference, in San Francisco this week with a global mission and new leadership. Energized by a Members Meeting on Sept. 26 and led by a new board of directors, called the Implementers' Forum, the HomePlug Powerline Alliance gathered in Silicon Valley to showcase the family of global standards supporting an in-home broadband backbone for the distribution of rich multimedia content (HomePlug 1.0 and AV), to-the-home broadband access through the utility power grid (HomePlug BPL), and the forthcoming low-speed command and control standard (HomePlug Command and Control). These standards, each being led by a newly formed family of Promoters' Groups under the governance of the HomePlug Alliance, will ensure seamless interoperability across all three, while optimizing the architecture necessary to support each protocol. As a result, the consumer will enjoy the benefits of a unified, standards-based communications technology used by in-home entertainment, networking and appliance manufacturers, as well as by utility companies choosing to deliver broadband and power grid management services to the home. After a rousing welcome from the Alliance's new president and an update on HomePlug technology's progress from the Chairman, the event opened with keynotes from Intel and Bell Canada: -- Intel Keynote - "Powering the Digital Home" In
the first keynote of the Conference, Donald J. McDonald, GM and VP
of the Digital Home Group at Intel, -- Bell Canada Keynote - "Turning Triple Plays into Grand Slams" Confidence
in the impact and direction of HomePlug technology was echoed in an
afternoon address from On Wednesday, Conference keynote addresses from Linksys, a Division of Cisco Systems, Inc., and Motorola, covered the digital home market infrastructure and the many opportunities for HomePlug technology in a global setting: -- Linksys Keynote - "Building Foundations in Powerline Markets" Opening
the sessions for Day 2, Malachy Moynihan, VP of Engineering and Product
Marketing for Linksys, a -- Motorola Keynote - "Why Connect the Home?" In
the final keynote of the conference, Barry James Folsom, Motorola's
Corporate VP and GM of Home Mobility The many exhibits at the HomePlug Technology Conference provide companies in the Digital Home Ecosystem with opportunities to feature to-the-home and in-the-home solutions and services, encouraging networking among the attending executives, managers and engineers from home networking and digital convergence companies, as well as powerline technology experts, from around the world. The dual-track program at the HomePlug Technology Conference offers presentations and panel discussions from prominent industry executives addressing the technical and business issues related to developing and implementing proven HomePlug technology. Speakers and moderators include representatives from Arkados, Consumer Electronics Association (CEA), Comcast, Conexant, Current Technologies, devolo, Duke Power, Earthlink, Intellon, Leviton, NETGEAR, Parks Associates, RadioShack Corporation, Sharp and Sony, among others. All interested parties are invited to join the HomePlug Powerline Alliance and contribute to the development of its specifications and broaden the growing list of applications. ***Akonix Security Center Publishes IM Threat Watch For Q3 2005; Report Finds That Third Quarter IM Attacks Averaged More Than One Per Day SAN DIEGO Akonix Systems announced that its Security Center team tracked the highest monthly total of new threats ever recorded, with 25 viruses identified in September. In the past, IM-borne viruses were often mutations of other variants, however in September alone, we had seven new viruses, which could be indicative of the increased activity by hackers targeting IM networks. Akonix also found that the number of attacks in Q3 2005 averaged just over one per day. The Akonix Security Center issued a total of 49 security policy updates in Q3, using the only dynamic IM malware, SPIM and protocol update system to automatically push updates to customers and block worms and viruses at the network perimeter in real-time. The Security Team tracked 97 new threats to corporations targeting IM systems in Q3 2005, an 18% decline from a total of 119 attacks in Q2 2005. The number of updates does not necessarily reflect the number of known attacks because some security updates block multiple attacks and preexisting filters already block some new virus variants. Among the new viruses identified in September were Mete, Parda, Simbag and Lewor. These appear to represent the next wave of attacks. In the first half of 2005, many of the IM threats were variants of common worms, such as Kelvir and Bropia. While variants of these worms are still being issued, the frequency has decreased as new sets of viruses have begun to target IM networks. The Q3 report tracked several new findings, including a new phase in the sophistication of the social engineering efforts used by IM virus writers to target unsuspecting IM users. August marked the first month where a virus queried the configuration of the client software to determine the language setting and then sent a message in the language of that client. September also witnessed an "international" virus with the Mete worm, which sent its messages in Spanish. In addition, the number of attacks on peer-to-peer (P2P) networks, such as Kazaa and eDonkey, are continuing to rise with a total of 44 new threats in Q3, a 9% increase from Q2 2005. According to Osterman Research, more than 90% of organizations in North America currently have some instant messaging use in their networks, and by the end of 2005, Osterman Research anticipates that about one-third of email users in the workplace will also be using IM. http://www.imsecuritycenter.com ***Johnson Controls Launches High-Technology Laboratory to Create Lithium-ion Batteries for Future Hybrid Vehicles MILWAUKEE Johnson Controls has launched an advanced lithium-ion battery development laboratory in Milwaukee, to create advanced power-storage solutions for near-future, hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs). The facility -- located at the company's Battery Technology Center -- features a "dry room" and an array of highly specialized tools and equipment for designing, developing and testing power-storage and power-management concepts based on lithium-ion technology. Johnson Controls, a manufacturer of automotive original equipment and aftermarket batteries, has been at the forefront of research and development activities to create enhanced batteries for future-generation HEVs. The company operates battery technology centers in the United States and Europe. For more than a decade, Johnson Controls has supplied nickel-metal-hydride batteries for hybrid-vehicle applications in Europe. The company believes lithium ion technology is likely to replace nickel-metal-hydride as the battery technology of choice in hybrid-electric and electric vehicles in the future. The global market for HEVs has increased steadily during the past year, fueling demand for enhanced power-storage and power-management technologies for such cars and trucks. According to industry projections, sales of HEVs in the U.S. and European automotive markets could reach 6 million units within a decade. HEV sales currently account for about 0.5 percent of total world vehicle production. At this time, most HEVs rely on nickel-metal-hydride batteries. Lithium-ion batteries have significant potential for near-future HEV applications, because they have the capability of offering major advantages in power- generation, size, weight, cycle life and cost. The new laboratory in Milwaukee supports Johnson Controls' plan to create and sustain a global "center of excellence" for lithium-ion battery development. Current company research and development efforts on lithium-ion technology focus on cathode materials, new cell designs for better thermal management, modular designs that enable the integration of safety technologies, and cell balancing to ensure safe operation as well as extended performance and cycling. In 2004, the company was granted a contract for lithium-ion battery development by the United States Advanced Battery Consortium (USABC). In this program, Johnson Controls has been tapped to develop an abuse-tolerant, lithium-ion battery offering extended life and significantly improved power- to-weight performance vs. current hybrid-battery technology. The USABC, which includes the U.S. Department of Energy, DaimlerChrysler, Ford and General Motors as members, supports research and development for advanced energy systems to power future HEVs. http://www.johnsoncontrols.com/
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