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The WAVE Report on Digital Media
3D --- Media Creation --- Shared Space ---Published by 4th Wave, Inc.--- Issue #0518------------------5/6/05 |
The WAVE Report is Searchable on
http://www.3dlinks.com
http://www.wave-report.com
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Correction: In WAVE Issue 0513 and conference report Display Search 2005, we reported that the speaker for the industry overview was Ross Young, CEO, DisplaySearch. The speaker was actually Barry Young, SVP and CFO, DisplaySearch.
Also, in our exuberance, we stated the attendance level as 4,000. According to DisplaySearch data, it was actually 400.
Please accept our apologies in both instances.
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0518.2 GPS Future
0518.3 IT Budgeting
0518.4 No Phishing Allowed
Phishing - New Sober Hits Hard; Install The Updated Netcraft Toolbar
0518.5 Renewable Energy
US Army Taps Konarka for $1.6 Million Renewable Energy Program
0518.6 RFID Growth
0518.7 Software User Groups
Marketingexperiments.Com Helps SSWUG.ORG Become the World's Largest Online SQL Server User's Group
0518.8 Venture Opportunities
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0518.1 Story of the Issue
***VON Spring 2005
By John Latta
San Jose, CA
March 7 – 9, 2005
The conference had only partially kicked off when some trends became evident early. One is that VoIP is another land rush to seize market positions enabled by technology. The VCs are swarming over the space, the incumbents are both in and out and regulation in turmoil. Moore’s Law and software, i.e., SIP, hope to finally drive down the cost of a telecommunications application. This reeks havoc with the incumbents, i.e., phone companies, who are masters at protecting their turf. Put in another way, it is David against Goliath. But this happened before in the Internet bust era. Now it is on the application layer with voice.
At the Telecom Policy Summit, the appeal was for regulatory Clarity. When Vonage CEO, Jeffrey Citron gave his keynote he ended is talk with an appeal to the audience to write their members of Congress to stop this madness of death by a 1000 regulators and endless law suits. Sitting the room at the Telecom Policy Summit were VCs who stated they have $1B+ to invest if they had a chance. It was all about clarity, clarity and clarity of the regulatory environment.
VON Spring 2005
This is Jeff Pulver’s baby. No other way to say it. Jeff is passionate and believes VON – Voice over the Net will be a success. His company pulver.com is at the center of the VoIP market including a successful petition to the FCC for a VoIP service. This is the largest VON event ever.
This is a U.S. focused event. It is all about the U.S. market in VoIP. There is a VON Europe. As we hear of the trials and tribulations of the market, one must be continually reminded this is the U.S. and it creates its own unique environment.
Regulators Play a Central Role
The Telecom Policy Summit was a pre-conference workshop that lasted all day. The WAVE sampled it. Blair Levin, former FCC Chief of Staff, gave a compelling review of the status of VoIP. The theme was “I do not love you.” This is a play on words which was his assessment of the chances of VoIP to gain a significant financial position in the market. His valuation was based on the ability of VoIP to gain a favorable regulatory environment so that it can grow – the rating was .5 on a scale of 5. Not what most were here to hear.
Random chaos is the best way to describe the regulatory environment which VoIP is launching. For example:
The FCC UNE-P decision is widely seen as a massive failure. The major challengers to the incumbents, AT&T and MCI, are now moving into the hands of incumbents. There is no better sign of failure of policy than to see competition collapse.
Each of the FCC VoIP decisions, Vonage and pulver.com, was positioned by the FCC on the panel today, as very narrow. One of the reasons is the limitations which govern the ability of the FCC to rule, especially in jurisdictional matters, i.e., state vs. federal telecommunications issues.
VoIP is seen as the tip of the iceburg of IP based services which must be addressed. The FCC has a NPRM on this issue but it is unclear how soon there will be clarity in regulation.
The Telecommunications Act of 1996 is also seen by many as a failure. There is a push to make changes to it and the telecommunications law in this session of Congress but the panel of Congressional staff had a mixed assessment on the prospect for passage.
In response to a question from the WAVE, Blair Levin stated that the U.S. does not have the political will to make broadband a universal service.
Many are buoyant that the FCC moved so quickly on the port blockage issue reported against Madison River which effectively disabled Vonage service by this small RLEC. Yet, the level of enthusiasm that this was a precedent was much less.
A VC asked the question – VCs are sitting on $1B in Investments. What assurance can we get that our companies with technology can will have a fair chance in the market. The answer was “go do it.”
The Supreme Court will shortly hear National Cable & Telecommunications Association v. Brand X Internet Services, No. 04-277, and FCC v. Brand X Internet Services, No. 04- 281. These cases are to resolve the issue about the cable companies opening their networks to competing ISPs. On the panel today, the FCC representative stated that it will be good to get a final resolution of this issue. Of course, this would only be the case if the Supreme Court makes a strong decision on the issue. There are many parallels with VoIP over broadband phone lines.
One of the issues is that VoIP players are small companies. If new spectrum becomes available from the DTV transition and this spectrum is auctioned off, it is difficult for small companies to compete. Those with the most money are the incumbents. It was stated from the panel that all attempts to make the auction process more open to small players has been a failure.
Given the inability of legislation and the courts to stem the strength of the incumbents each little straw of competition is cheered. Today this is VoIP. But this faces an enormous battle to fairly compete. Yes, companies cheer for Vonage but the target of a 1m lines by the end of 2005 is still small. It is only a threat and a small one at that against the incumbents.
Vonage – A Winning Player
The room was packed. Jeff Citron, CEO of Vonage, gave a smooth compelling talk.
Vonage has 620,000 subscribers today and seeks to have 1m subscribers in 2006.
It has 35% share in the VoIP market. The rest of the share is with the cable companies: Cablevision, Time Warner and others.
Vonage now has a presence in Canada and the UK and plans to enter Asia.
Its phone service is rated 4.1 on a scale of 5 and Vonage wants to be even better. Verizon is only 4.0.
As a result of a partnership with TI, Vonage has been able to gain many devices for the home which support Vonage. This includes Cisco, Motorola, Linksys and X-Pro Soft Phone.
New products are coming soon. These include a wireless home phone from VTECH. The ID was very good. Another phone is the Utstarcom F-1000 which can be used at hot spots – that is, a WiFi phone for Vonage.
Vonage plans on entering the video market and they will launch the Viseon Visifone.
As a consumer service company, Vonage has global distribution which uses direct marketing, channel strategy, VAR and private label. Jeff was strong on the need for a “deep, multi-channel vertical” distribution approach.
The marketing message is:
Not a traditional phone company;
No nickel and diming;
Empower people;
Unlimited calling;
Free, innovative features;
Mobility – phone service where you want it; and
Access independent.The keynote ended with an appeal to get involved. Write your congressional representative:
Gain equal access to E911;
Protect a policy of net neutrality;
Fix the USF subsidy; and
Make LNP faster for VoIP.
The audience loved it. Vonage is David and most in the audience are also David’s. Let competition work for market share. But in reality is very hard. Competition flourishes when the playing field is defined. Thus the appeal for clarity, clarity and clarity.
***Research and Markets has announced the addition of Global Positioning Systems (GPS): The Road Ahead to their offering.
DUBLIN, Ireland
May 4
GPS technology has made significant contributions to the global economy in the last decade. Hundreds of uses of GPS now exist from stand-alone applications, such as surveying and navigation, to more integrated, embedded applications in which GPS is just one component. Like the Internet, GPS is an information technology that is a part of the emerging Global Information Infrastructure. GPS-based precision time signals help synchronized global information networks of fiber optics, coaxial cable, copper wire, radio, and even communication satellites. GPS applications are generating both commercial products and information services, which increase productivity in diverse public service applications and enhance national and even personal security.
Based on the industry trends and technological assessment, experts predict that the market is expected to grow for the next 15-20 years. Predictions also show a strong annual growth and an expected market size of US $757 billion by 2017. There have seen a significant growth of interest in GPS applications for fields, such as vehicle tracking, surveying, mapping, navigation, railway management, marine, aeronautical, land vehicle and electric power systems. This report summarizes the main companies involved (all of them are small), and briefly mentions their activities.
This research analyzes on GPS equipment markets worldwide, offering revenue, unit, and average price forecasts at the segment and sub-segment level. The study covers general aviation, land, marine, military, timing, and wireless markets. The GPS-enabled wireless segment includes sub-segments for mobile handsets and personal digital assistants (PDAs)/pagers/laptops.
Report Highlights:
- Scope and application of GPS devices in market structure
- Differential GPS (DGPS) techniques and application
- Global GPS market structure and structural growth
- GPS market and revenue share (by sector)
- Government initiative and funding policies
Report Features:
"Global Positioning Systems (GPS): The Road Ahead" report provides an in-depth vision of the market scenario and the varied application growth opportunities influenced by the technological advancement in the field of GPS services. The primary focus of the report is to leverage a balance by contemplating on the impact of GPS, the market development and its limitations, along with a critical perspective into the ongoing insurgences and concerning technological issues. Chapter 2 provides an overview of the GPS technology and Chapter 3 provides an insight into the industry. Chapter 4 highlights the government initiative and funding policies, while Chapter 6 talks about the current technological advances and opportunities. Chapter 5 looks into the alternative technological sources to GPS Industry and how GLONASS aiding the market for GPS Sector worldwide.
http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c16910
***IT Spending in Manufacturing Declining, Finds
Study –
Manufacturers Already Rank Near the Bottom on IT Spending
London, ON
April 27, 2005
Manufacturing is 50% more likely than other industries to decrease IT spending in 2005. A study by leading IT research firm Info-Tech Research Group finds that 21% of Manufacturing companies plan to decrease IT spending this year, as compared to an average of 14% for other industries.
Info-Tech found that it’s surprising that there is such a large gap between the cuts to IT planned by manufacturers and the cuts planned by other industries. According to their study, manufacturing is already the third lowest spender per employee of all the industries that were surveyed.
Further, the study found huge spending variances within the Manufacturing industry. Companies with less than 50 employees spend 20 times more per employee on IT than companies with over 500 employees. Clearly, there are efficiencies and economies of scale available to larger companies that cannot be leveraged by their smaller counterparts.
The findings are part of Info-Tech Research Group’s Manufacturing Industry 2005 IT Budget & Staffing Report, released this week. Data in the independent, non-sponsored report is based on Info-Tech’s January 2005 survey of more than 1,400 IT decision makers at mid-sized enterprises in Canada, the U.S. and U.K.
Other important findings in the study include:
Spending varied among segments of the Manufacturing market. For example, the Non-Perishable/Goods segment spends five times more per employee on IT than Steel/Metal.
Desktop Hardware/Software spending is flat, with over 60% of IT decision makers in Manufacturing not planning any new desktop software purchases.
Storage is a major investment priority, especially in companies with over 500 employees.
Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) is the number one investment priority for Manufacturing enterprises, followed closely by Supply Chain Management (SCM) and Customer Relationship Management (CRM).
***Phishing - New Sober Hits Hard; Install The Updated Netcraft Toolbar
PC Magazine
May 5
There's no "phoolproof" way to detect a phishing site. But the Netcraft Toolbar can help.
As you surf the web, the Netcraft Toolbar displays information about the sites you are visiting, including where it is hosted and how long Netcraft has been tracking it. Both of these can be clues as to whether the site is what it appears to be. If, for example, you see a Paypal site hosted on Inktomi, something is probably amiss.
The menus on the toolbar are filled with Netcraft-related functions including the ability to report a phishing attack to them. If someone has already reported such an attack and you visit it, then you are stopped before the site comes up and presented with a warning and given the opportunity to abort the visit.
You can download the Netcraft Toolbar from at the Netcraft site. A FireFox version is coming soon.
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1759,1791644,00.asp
***US Army Taps Konarka for $1.6 Million Renewable Energy Program; Company's Light-Activated Power Plastic Will Be Incorporated into Critical Applications for Soldier Support Systems
LOWELL, Mass.
May 4, 2005
Konarka Technologies, Inc., has announced the Company has signed a contract with the United States Army to provide critical power supply to soldier systems and Army support infrastructure.
Electric power requirements are going up for both soldiers and facilities in theater of war situations, as the military is using sophisticated electronic technologies for sensing, surveillance, communications, search and destroy, and survival on the battlefield. Today's soldiers are being weighed down, though, by the batteries that drive these devices. They are required to carry a daily supply of primary batteries, but limited power capacity and the continual need for re-supply can limit the mobility, range and mission length required for effective field operations. Since rechargeable batteries can alleviate the soldiers' burden and the extensive logistics support to maintain the battery supply, the Army now favors their use wherever possible, and recharging those batteries in the field is a priority.
To ensure soldiers can become less dependent on supply logistics and locally available power sources to charge batteries, Konarka will deliver its renewable energy generation capabilities to the Army in the devices, systems and structures that are normally deployed for remote operations. Power goes to the battlefield via equipment and supplies that already have to go into battle, including:
-- Portable, lightweight AA battery chargers for individual soldiers to enhance the use of handheld electronics
-- Large-area structures, such as tents that silently produce electrical power for battery charging or direct use. These tents can lessen the amount of diesel fuel needed for generators, reduce noise and emissions, and limit heat signature
-- Sensor systems, enabling extended unattended operation without regular maintenance to replace battery power
As part of this new program, Konarka also will perfect its ability to print camouflage-patterned power plastic to maintain a low visible profile and continue to improve the performance of its photovoltaic fibers and fabrics. Power-generating textiles could be used for soldiers' uniforms, tents, field hospitals, covers for trucks and gun emplacements, and wearable electronics.
***2005 - Key Year For Adoption of RFID Solutions
60% of manufacturers indicate they have an RFID project underway
New York
28 April 2005
2005 will be a key year for radio frequency identification (RFID) solutions, says a new report just published by independent market analyst, Datamonitor (DTM.L). The report, Global Manufacturing Outlook and IT Investment Insight - A Datamonitor Technology Decision-maker Panel Project, surveyed C-Level executives, CIOs, IT managers and line of business managers (LOB) in 150 of the top 300 global manufacturers, to investigate current issues and IT opportunities in the manufacturing industry in North America and Europe. It reveals 60% of manufacturers have an RFID project underway. Analysts found that end-user understanding of the key issues is solid and intent to invest in RFID is apparent.
With 40% as yet having no RFID project underway, there is considerable untapped opportunity for IT vendors to address.
News for IT vendors is good
Despite the fact that RFID technology is still immature and projects to date have tended to be pilots or limited implementations, manufacturers have already started to think ahead. In order to get the greatest benefits out of RFID technology, data synchronization and integration is crucial. However, manufacturers are aware of this and initiatives such as Global Data Sync have been generating increasing momentum.
78% of manufacturers surveyed say their next RFID project will involve process, data and systems integration, a sign that IT vendor marketing has been effective, and an indication that the market is ready to move to the next phase.
According to the authors, manufacturers have moved beyond 'slap and ship' and are looking to fully realize the benefits that RFID can bring them
The relative advancement of the manufacturing sector is also shown by the types of RFID solutions currently in place. In the survey, more than 68% indicate they are using RFID either in distribution or warehouse management, while only 56% say that they have implemented an RFID solution to meet mandates by companies such as Wal-Mart or Metro.
Datamonitor would have expected to see more compliance projects, as opposed to warehouse and distribution management. However, that this is not the case suggests that manufacturers have moved beyond 'slap and ship' and are looking to fully realize the benefits that RFID can bring them.
The authors conclude, IT vendors, particularly the likes of IBM, SAP and Oracle, have done well to educate the market. This study demonstrates the willingness to take RFID a step further. 2005 looks like it will be the year that begins to see substantial RFID adoption for the first time.
***Marketingexperiments.Com Helps SSWUG.ORG Become the World's Largest Online SQL Server User's Group; in Just One Year, SSWUG.ORG Doubles Its Number of Registered Users to More Than 235,000
TUCSON, Ariz. & ATLANTIC BEACH, Fla.
May 3, 2005
The SQL Server Worldwide User's Group (SSWUG.ORG) has more than doubled its membership in the past year to more than 235,000 registered members with help from MarketingExperiments.com, an online marketing research laboratory.
As a result of these combined efforts, SSWUG.ORG is now the largest online SQL server user group in the world.
In January 2004, when the then 7-year-old SSWUG entered into a research partnership with MarketingExperiments.com, SSWUG had 104,000 users. MarketingExperiments.com's partnership with SSWUG included optimizing the copy on SSWUG's Web site and helping it simplify its online subscription path, making registration both faster and easier for users.
Because of the success of their first partnership, MarketingExperiments.com and SSWUG continue to work together to enhance the SSWUG.ORG Web site and provide users with access to the most valuable information.
In addition to entering into primary engagements with organizations such as SSWUG to conduct specifically tailored experiments, MarketingExperiments.com also conducts other timely marketing experiments and publishes the results online in The Marketing Experiments Journal.
Free subscriptions to The Marketing Experiments Journal include complete access to more than 60 research briefs covering topics such as e-mail marketing, site conversion, online marketplaces, pay-per-click strategies and online advertising. Since its formation in 2001, data from research briefs published in The Marketing Experiments Journal has been quoted in more than 13,000 online and offline sources.
To subscribe to The Marketing Experiments Journal for free, please visit
http://www.marketingexperiments.com/newmemberform.asp
About SSWUG.ORG
The SQL Server Worldwide User's Group (SSWUG) is the largest community of database professionals in the world. With tens of thousands of articles, tips and forums related to database programming, SSWUG.ORG offers a wealth of resources to CTOs, database administrators and database professionals around the world. Founded by Stephen Wynkoop, a Microsoft MVP and author of more than 10 books, SSWUG.ORG is considered the leading resource for database-related information on the Web.
***Microsoft Opens R&D to Small Companies and Entrepreneurs
NEW YORK
May 4
At a gathering of venture capitalists, Microsoft Corp. annnounced Microsoft Intellectual Property (IP) Ventures, a new program aimed at entrepreneurs and small businesses that will speed the movement of innovative technology into the global market. Microsoft IP Ventures opens up hundreds of internally developed technologies to entrepreneurs and new businesses by licensing and spinning out Microsoft's innovations to facilitate new product and business development.
Access to a Broad Range of Technologies
Microsoft IP Ventures opens access to a broad range of technology areas. Currently, entrepreneurs can choose from 20 technologies developed by Microsoft researchers and developers. As the program expands, so will the number and variety of technologies available for license. A sampling of the technology areas now available is listed below. A full list can be found at
http://www.microsoftipventures.com/
-- Artificial intelligence. Face detection and tracking, natural language processing for educational courseware
-- Usability. "LaunchTile"
-- Graphics. Personalized facial sketch, cartoon generation
-- Security. BioCert (digitally signed tamper-proof ID cards incorporating biometric information), counterfeit-resistant optical fiber technology
-- Gaming. Xnav (gesture-based text input and device navigation)
-- Multimedia. Audio correction algorithms for speakers, conference XP (distance conferencing, instruction and collaboration environment), horizontal overscan (broadcasting synchronized data in an analog television signal), "Microsoft Portrait" (mobile video communication), MobiPicture (intelligent mobile browsing of large image), "Wallop" (mixed media online collaborative environment)
-- Databases. Data visualization tools
Licensing Innovations as Building Blocks
IP Ventures was developed in consultation with venture capitalists and entrepreneurs. Microsoft offers a licensing model that can include royalty payments and equity, and is flexible enough for entrepreneurs raising capital.
One example of the many innovations available for licensing through IP Ventures is a technology for mobile video communication code-named Microsoft Portrait. "Portrait" runs on local area networks, dial-up networks and even wireless networks with bandwidths as low as 9.6 Kbps. At low bandwidths, the technology delivers portrait-like video with clear shape, smooth motion, short latency and low computational costs.
On broadband connections, "Portrait" displays full-color video.
Another project, code-named "Wallop," is an online community technology available for licensing. In addition to standard tools for interaction such as buddy lists, "Wallop" creates inferred social networks, which automatically identify whom a user interacts with, not just contacts the user has explicitly added. The technology also enables users to personalize profiles using skins and add Web logs (blogs), music and photos. Users are able to form unusually rich impressions of one another by viewing the content posted in "Wallop."
A third representative technology available through IP Ventures, code-named "LaunchTile," enhances navigation on mobile devices by allowing users to browse information, documents and applications easily single handed. Unique to the design of "LaunchTile," each application has a dynamic launch tile in the place of a static launch icon, facilitating at-a-glance information retrieval for several applications simultaneously as well as on-demand application launch when users want more detailed information.
Demand Leads to Program
In April, Microsoft announced that Pacific Northwest-based technology company Inrix Inc. received an exclusive license for a predictive, real-time traffic technology from Microsoft Research that enables Inrix to provide relevant, up-to-the-minute traffic information. An early example of how this program and model will work, Inrix built its business around the technology to enable the delivery of the next generation of traffic information services. The company plans to distribute real-time predictive traffic information nationwide to a broad range of service providers, device manufacturers, Web sites and mobile solution providers.
http://www.microsoftipventures.com/
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