The WAVE Report is Searchable on http://www.3dlinks.com -------------------------------------- 0513.2 Email Security
0513.3 Biometric Identification
0513.4 Semiconductor Advances
0513.5 Property Rights 0513.6 Data Acquisition
0513.7 Medical Technology Growth
0513.8 Website Analytics 0513.9 Semiconductor History
0513.10 Technology Leadership -------------------------------------- ***DisplaySearch US FPD 2005 San Diego, CA DisplaySearch continues to lead in its ability to assess the display market. The company is heading for 28 employees who are located in 6 countries. The strategy is to understand the complete flat panel display food chain from the fabrication equipment to retailers. This is a major task and one which DisplaySearch has some of the most extensive data in the industry. This is the 7th Annual FPD event and it is sold out with nearly 400 attendees. Attendees are from 17 countries represented and 20 exhibitors present in the small exhibit area.
As is the custom, DisplaySearch provides multiple overviews of sectors of the display industry. Barry Young, SVP & CFO, DisplaySearch, provided one of the overall FPD industry.
HP had two speakers: Deborah Nelson VP of Marketing and John Morriss, VP and GM, HP Displays Business Unit. The first spoke of the convergence of IT and CE. It was touted that content is king and a $500B market opportunity lies ahead. It was even stated that “IT companies have the edge (in the convergence of IT and CE) on how to rationalize the technology to consumers.” HP was claimed to be a leader because it has a go-to-market strategy, portfolio, technology and alliances. John Morriss gave the audience a lecture on the chasm and the consumer needs/satisfaction curve of technology. The union of these two concepts makes it possible to win in consumer markets because it is now possible to “move from high-tech to commodity based products…as [manufacturers] adjust their mind-set to better suite the needs of customers.” Coming from HP it was a surprise to hear such trivial and superficial market characterization.
Jim Sanduski gave a fast running overview of the impact of the HDTVs on the display industry. This was all focused on the US market.
The focus shifted to the TV opportunity for flat panel displays. Earlier, it was discussed how this crystal cycle is unusual in that the “capital spending was not cut as a result of the slide in prices.” The reason for this is that the LCD manufacturers are betting on the 170m+ television market rolling to LCD televisions. Slight problem - there is already capacity to produce 100m units for just the television market in 2006 and this is well above what the market is likely to absorb. We posed the question – with so many sharp individuals in this business why is there a herd mentality to build more fabs knowing full well that the market will be oversaturated with suppliers? The response we got from DisplaySearch was – there is too much money around to build fabs and that every company expects it will be the big winner. Slight problem – there is no big market after televisions are penetrated. It seems as if every company is staring into the headlights of the train.
The television market is the major opportunity for flat panels. This is not just an HD market but is about replacing old with the new. As a result the LCD television makers see this is a huge opportunity. The problem is that this is the last LCD market to penetrate. With success in phones, notebooks and continuing success in monitors for desktop PCs the television market is the last major hurdle. As a result there is great anticipation on winning this in this space. The highly price sensitive television market means that those with economies of scale have the best chance of winning. As we heard before this implies companies with Gen 7 fabs with the largest glass substrates. The problem is that everyone has the same expectation and all cannot be winners. Ross’s talk provided excellent background.
Ross Young gave his interesting and provocative overview of the OLED. Key points include:
Eastman Kodak was muted in its presentation on the status of OLED. Gone were the enthusiastic predictions for OLED. In general, lifetimes are up, yields are improving but caution is everywhere. The reality is that OLEDs cannot justify a price premium. To get to price parity OLEDs must gain high yields, have high light efficiency, be efficient in production and execute in the market. Over and over we heard this will take at least 2 years and possibly more. The gnawing question is – can OLEDs get to market quickly enough to have an impact or will the window close? For the company that began OLED developments it was an unusual position. The CEO said it best in a recent interview.
Tall order given that this list does not emphasize the unique strengths of OLED. It was stated that for OLED to be competitive with AMLCD it must be fabricated on backplanes of Gen 4 size, not smaller. Kodak concluded with:
We can only conclude the future of Eastman Kodak in OLED is in question.
The key to consuming all the panels that can be generated by the advanced fabs is to sell more glass panels per person. This was addressed in a number of ways in the applications track today. LG Philips wants to put displays everywhere, on walls, on window glass, in mirrors, throughout automobiles and in public places. Sharp sees ubiquitous displays in small screens that cover all types of hand held devices. They describe the key to future markets as displays which are smaller, thinner, lighter, easier to read and with lower power. As part of this displays will be moving to 400ppi in 2006. DisplaySearch took the broadest view of the market and saw displays in: smart cards, shelf labels, auto consoles, displaywear, digital signage, see through walls, paste on the wall televisions and wrist televisions. A simple market estimate rolled up $20B.
Barry Young of DisplaySearch sought to stimulate the thinking of the audience by going beyond the traditional display applications. He began by suggesting that the “holy grail” of displays is the transparent display. This is a display one can hold up and it is totally clear except for a small frame. Like a window whose transparency varies based on what is displayed. Barry went so far to suggest such technology is not far fetched. Applications include: display windows, room separators, automobile windows, and 3d gambling in casinos.
Gary Jones, CEO of eMagin, described his products as virtual imaging. These are near eye displays that one wears. The sound bite is that you can carry around a 105” screen with you. The value of OLED-on-Silicon is that it offers: interface logic on the display, full color data buffers under each pixel and wide angle viewing. It is also low power. Gary Held up its new Z800 displays which supports:
Matt Harris of Planar proposed that there is a major market for retail displays. This includes: shopping, dining and hosting (lodging, amusement and similar). Examples retail placement include: shopping carts, promotional signage, window display, product ordering, gift enrollment and much more. They binned the retail environment as Attract, Interact and Transact.
Scala advocates a network to make digital signage possible everywhere. They have deployed 25,000 display units worldwide. The key value added that they bring is the software to support so many displays in a real time environment. Primary markets include: retail, corporate communications, call centers, entertainment venues and digital menu boards. Secondary markets include: medical offices, auto care, banks, airports, education, real estate and hospitality. The third level channels include outdoor, shopping malls and airports. To be successful it was suggested that these rules will drive the emerging industry:
The point of the PC industry is a display which is a Panasonic Plugin PC which makes any 42”, 50” and 65” display an IP addressable PC. This even includes the ability to make an individual display wireless addressable. This is very powerful.
The two examples of displays everywhere bordered on the extreme. For example, Scala cited how effective it was at driving the average purchase up in a fast food setting. Planar cited how the patient waiting room was the ideal place for drug companies to run promotional advertising while the patients waited. This all creates an environment of visual bombardment. The ratio of ads to content on national television is gotten so bad that consumers use PVR’s to rid the junk. So now the objectives of displays everywhere is to just increase the level of visual pollution. One comes away with the impression that the objective of the technology is to treat the consumer as a mindless automat that easily succumbs to visual suggestion to spend more money. How can marketing be so naive? Consumers tire of being told what to do, how to do it and that all they are is pockets to be picked by astute marketing. Are we so bipolar as to believe that the world is only populated by smart marketing and dumb consumers? Surely displays have more value than being tools of the blind marketer who is so sightless as to believe that one only has to sell, sell and sell to pick consumer pockets. ***MessageLabs Helps Customers Address Email Privacy Concerns With A New Managed Encryption Service NEW YORK MessageLabs has announced the launch of MessageLabs Boundary Encryption service, a boundary-to-boundary encryption service that guarantees the privacy and integrity of electronic communications between corporate mail servers. Driven by regulatory and legislative pressures, concern over the privacy and integrity of Internet email communication is moving up the corporate agenda. As a result, businesses are looking towards encryption to secure their email. A 2005 study by Osterman Research indicated that at least 20 per cent of users in a typical organization would be frequent users of a secure messaging capability if it was available to them. The MessageLabs Boundary Encryption service provides a secure private email network (SPEN) for customers to communicate with designated partners using SMTP over Transport Layer Security (TLS) encryption, without the need for desktop encryption tools. All email sent between an organization's mail server, MessageLabs and designated partners travels via TLS encrypted channels. This lowers the total cost of ownership (TCO) of managing encryption relationships and the hassle of maintaining encryption clients on individual desktops, while ensuring the privacy and integrity of all email messages passed via these channels. To use the service, organizations nominate email domains to be subject to encryption and designate partners to be involved in encrypted channels. The MessageLabs service then ensures that communication to and from the service involving these domains is secured using TLS. If an organization communicates with non-designated partners outside the SPEN, then normal unencrypted SMTP is used to pass such messages from the MessageLabs service to the recipient domains. Email is secured via the SPEN only when it is sent outside the organization's network, remaining unencrypted or "in the clear" within the corporate network, which facilitates other compliance-led solutions such as archiving. Both incoming and outgoing encrypted email passes through the MessageLabs' global infrastructure at the Internet level, whereby the full array of MessageLabs email security services can be applied to protect organizations from threats such as viruses, spam and other unwanted content. Customers can control content and apply policies, ensuring that only clean email is then forwarded on to the intended recipient. The service is transparent to the end user, with no desktop tools required. Using a central management console, organizations can manage their own set of partners. MessageLabs will then perform an automatic check to ensure nominated partners support TLS. MessageLabs' range of email security and management services provides organizations with a complete managed email security solution, without the hassle, inconvenience or additional cost of traditional software or hardware solutions. These services ensure the integrity of electronic communications, helping businesses to manage and reduce risk while securing their critical infrastructure and business information. 0513.3 Biometric Identification ***NEC Fingerprint Technology Tops U.S. Department of Justice Study RANCHO CORDOVA, Calif. NEC Solutions (America) Inc. has announced that NEC's fingerprint technology earned top ranking in most categories of the Slap Fingerprint Segmentation Evaluation 2004 (SlapSeg04), sponsored by the Justice Management Division of the U.S. Department of Justice. Slap fingerprints (slaps) are taken by pressing the four fingers of one hand onto a scanner or fingerprint card simultaneously. Slap segmentation is the process by which a single image containing four fingerprint images is divided into four images of the individual fingers. Slap fingerprints are noted for the speed at which they can be documented and processed, and their use is being considered for background checks in a variety of U.S. Government fingerprint systems. The purpose of SlapSeg04 was to evaluate the accuracy of the slap fingerprint segmentation algorithm, one component of automated fingerprint identification systems (AFIS). The study was conducted by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Additional partners of SlapSeg04 include the U.S. Visitor and Immigrant Status Indicator Technology (VISIT) Program Office, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). The study was performed using almost 30,000 slap prints submitted from seven organizations. NEC's slap segmentation algorithm achieved a 96.8 percent correct segmentation rate when three or more highly-matchable fingerprints (and correctly identified finger positions) were measured, an accuracy rate 1.1 percent higher than that of the second ranked vendor. NEC also achieved a correct segmentation rate of greater than 99 percent in circumstances in which two or more marginal and highly-matchable fingerprints (and correctly-identified finger positions) were measured. Additionally, NEC's slap segmentation algorithm proved most accurate in hand and finger position identification rate for slaps with an unknown hand type. NEC correctly identified hand and finger position 99.8 percent of the time, 1.2 percent higher than the second ranked vendor. This translates to an error rate (.2 percent) one-seventh of the next-ranked vendor's rate of 1.4 percent. This accuracy rate can help detect uncooperative subjects who attempt to avoid identification by, for example, scanning interchanged hands. According to the study, only NEC's slap segmentation algorithm can detect such illegal attempts with acceptable accuracy. The SlapSeg04 was conducted during late 2004 and early 2005. Ten vendors and organizations participated in the SlapSeg04 submitting a total of 13 algorithms for evaluation. All participants sent their slap segmentation software to NIST. The evaluation was done by SlapSeg04 staff at NIST facilities using more than 29,000 slap fingerprints. The full report is available on the NIST website. http://fingerprint.nist.gov/slapseg04/ ***Strategies Unlimited Forecasts Continuing Positive Outlook for Gallium Nitride Technology MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. Having achieved a worldwide device market of $3.2 billion in 2004, gallium nitride technology continues to be one of the biggest success stories in compound semiconductors, according to Silicon Valley-based market research firm Strategies Unlimited. Although high-brightness LEDs dominate the market currently, gallium-nitride-based laser diodes and electronic devices are in the early stages of market growth and will achieve substantial volumes in the next five years. The total market for all types of gallium nitride devices is forecast at $7.2 billion in 2009. In the fourth edition of its highly regarded report, Gallium Nitride 2005 -- Technology Status, Applications, and Market Forecasts, Strategies Unlimited updates the status of worldwide technology developments and markets for gallium nitride optoelectronic and electronic devices. As of early 2005, 232 companies were participating in gallium nitride production or development, and 394 universities and research centers were involved in gallium nitride R&D. These worldwide figures represent an increase of 26% and 35%, respectively, since the publication of Strategies Unlimited's previous gallium nitride report in June 2003. Gallium Nitride 2005 is a 430-page report that addresses multiple aspects of gallium nitride technology, including material properties, substrates, deposition, etching, contacts, packaging, and device performance. It tabulates the 725 companies, universities, research centers and government agencies involved in or supporting gallium nitride production and R&D, and profiles 32 such organizations. In addition, the report analyzes 20 applications of gallium nitride optoelectronic and electronic devices, and provides detailed market forecasts through 2009. ***A Solution to the Grokster Copyright Debate? Washington, D.C. The legal tactics used by entertainment companies to stop online file sharing of copyrighted material have been costly and ineffective. A better solution is a new business model that uses new technologies, marketing strategies and pricing models so that content industries could better police the market and internalize copyright protection costs, according to a report issued by the Competitive Enterprise Institute. In the study Expanding the Market's Role in Advancing Intellectual Property, CEI Adjunct Analyst James Plummer demonstrates how dramatically the proliferation of Internet-related technologies and shifting consumer attitudes have made traditional pricing and rights enforcement models obsolete. In addition, Plummer argues that putting the cost of copyright protection entirely on law enforcement agencies unfairly burdens taxpayers. “Content producers can use new technologies to offer differentiated products at differentiated prices to consumers showing different levels of interest in the work of particular artists. Such innovations should not be hampered by antitrust and other government regulations,” writes Plummer. “One-size-fits-all mandates on critical consumer technologies will stifle the growth of the intellectual property industry and indeed, of new forms of art. A wide array of hardware-software combinations to choose from would best serve copyright holders—artists and the content industries—and consumers.” The debate over how digital content should be protected – as exemplified in the case of M.G.M. v. Groskter currently being argued before the U.S. Supreme Court – is vital in today’s diversified consumer culture and global marketplace. Copyright holders can adapt to this new world with fresh ideas or risk being left behind by consumers. CEI is a non-profit, non-partisan public policy group dedicated to the principles of free enterprise and limited government. For more information, please visit ***National Instruments Introduces Its Smallest, Most Portable Measurement Device AUSTIN, Texas Engineers and scientists now can turn standard PDAs into customized, portable measurement tools with the new National Instruments CompactFlash data acquisition (DAQ) device. The NI CF-6004 device -- which is slightly larger than a standard postage stamp -- plugs into any PDA with a CompactFlash slot to create a handheld instrument with the processing and wireless communication capabilities of the latest PDA devices. The NI CF-6004 is a 14-bit multifunction data acquisition device that plugs directly into a PDA CompactFlash slot to provide up to 200 KS/s single-channel sampling on four analog input channels in a handheld form factor. It also offers four lines of digital I/O for controlling and measuring LVTTL or LVCMOS signals. Engineers can use the NI LabVIEW graphical programming environment for Pocket PC and Palm OS to acquire, analyze and view the data on their PDAs. The flexibility and mobility of the NI CF-6004 make it ideal for applications such as wearable computing and field monitoring and diagnostics, as well as in laboratory and educational settings. Compared to buying several traditional, handheld instruments, engineers can save valuable space by using a single PDA with LabVIEW and the NI CF-6004 DAQ device. Because engineers can define their own unique instruments in LabVIEW and then easily deploy them to their handheld devices, they also can later change and redeploy these applications to repurpose their PDAs for new measurements. In addition, because PDAs are typically less expensive than laptops, PDA-based data acquisition is a cost-effective option for handheld, portable instruments. http://www.ni.com/dataacquisition 0513.7 Medical Technology Growth ***Demand for Semiconductor Technologies in Medical Imaging Modalities on the Rise PALO ALTO, Calif. With semiconductor content in medical imaging modalities increasing and likely to continue doing so until 2008, semiconductor vendors look forward to opportunities for growth particularly in high-end imaging systems such as ultrasounds and computed tomography (CT) scanners. New analysis from Frost & Sullivan, Strategic Analysis of Semiconductors in the Global Medical Imaging Modality Market, reveals that the total market generated revenue of $1,094.5 million in 2003 and expects to reach $1,954.9 million in 2008 at an estimated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.3 percent. This is likely to be a difficult task due to the dynamic nature of the medical imaging modalities market and the fact that the semiconductor market is itself going though some changes, from a technology point of view. For instance, medical imaging vendors are increasingly demanding higher speed and superior quality imaging. To satisfy this need, semiconductor vendors might have to work at combining one or more technologies in collaboration with other vendors. Building the right partnership in order to offer the best possible technology to their medical imaging clients is, therefore, likely to play a decisive role in the success of semiconductor vendors. The quality of imaging is a critical factor, particularly for high-end imaging instruments such as ultrasound systems and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanners. Since customers consider these expensive systems as a long-term investment, it is essential for semiconductor vendors to develop upgrades regularly and cut down on the time-to-market. Since frequent upgrades call for a flexible architecture, the field programmable gate array (FPGA) is likely to dominate over other technologies. FPGA expects to be one of the fastest growing segments and has already started replacing other well-established technologies in some major modalities, despite being relatively new. Strategic Analysis of Semiconductors in the Global Medical Imaging Modality Market, part of the 9952 subscription, offers detailed revenue forecasts for the total semiconductor market segmented on technology basis. This can help vendors assess the future development of each technology and their potential in the medical imaging modalities market. Executive summaries and interviews are available to the press. ***Sane Solutions Releases NetTracker Lite - a ''Freeware'' Version of Their NetTracker Web Analytics Software NORTH KINGSTOWN, R.I. Sane Solutions, developers of the NetTracker line of Web analytics software, has announced the availability of NetTracker Lite. This "freeware" version of NetTracker provides owners of small and low-traffic Web sites with robust Web site traffic analysis software at no cost. NetTracker Lite users can take advantage of many of the features found in commercial versions of the NetTracker line of Web analytics solutions, including advanced filtering and drill down capabilities, flexible reporting options including a calendar-based reporting interface, and the ability to share browser-based reports on the Web or export reports to software tools such as Excel and Word. In the past, the entry-level and freeware Web site traffic analysis markets consisted of basic 'hit-counters', aptly named for what they do - count hits. NetTracker Lite goes beyond counting hits and provides more meaningful, market standard measurements such as the number of visits, visitors, and page views. While new software companies often offer freeware versions of their software when they are just getting started in order to quickly gain market share, this offering is unique in that the NetTracker line of commercial Web analytics solutions have been on the market for over eight years and are used by over 10,000 customers world-wide. NetTracker Lite supports Windows, Mac, Linux, and FreeBSD platforms, and can be downloaded for free. 0513.9 Semiconductor History Project ***The Silicon Genesis Project Announces the History of Fairchild Semiconductor Available on DVD; Proceeds to Fund Future Chronicles of the Semiconductor Industry MENLO PARK, Calif. Walker Research Associates of Menlo Park announced the availability of a three-hour digital video documentary of Fairchild Semiconductor. The DVD, titled "The Fairchild Chronicles," tells the story of the Silicon Valley icon company that invented the integrated circuit and spawned the growth of numerous technology companies. The Fairchild documentary is based on the Stanford University archived "Silicon Genesis," a series of video oral histories started in 1995 by Rob Walker, one of the founders of LSI Logic and author of Silicon Destiny: The Story of Application Specific Integrated Circuits and LSI Logic Corporation (Milpitas: C.M.C. Publications, 1992; available at www.walkerresearch.com). The Fairchild documentary is told in the words of those who lead the company, including Gordon Moore, Wilf Corrigan, Jerry Sanders, Charlie Sporck and others. Included in the DVD are over sixty early photographs of the company and key executives and employees who contributed to the company's growth and success. The documentary covers the period from Fairchild's founding in 1957 to the purchase of the company by National Semiconductor in 1986.
The Silicon Genesis project was the inspiration of Rob Walker, Silicon Valley native and engineer, who has been involved with semiconductors since the 1960s at Fairchild, Intel and as a founder of LSI Logic. Silicon Genesis comprises more than 30 interviews with pioneers of the semiconductor industry, with careful attention to the long-term preservation of these interviews. Archival and viewing copies are available in the Department of Special Collections, Stanford University Libraries, in addition to the streamed media available on http://silicongenesis.stanford.edu "The Fairchild Chronicles" DVD is priced at $39.95 and may be obtained from Panalta Inc. 250 Emerson Street, Palo Alto CA 94301. All revenues go to The Stanford University Libraries to continue chronicling the history of the semiconductor industry. ***Burson-Marsteller Identifies Next Generation of Influencers; Tech-fluentials are the New Chief Opinion Leaders NEW YORK A study released global public relations agency Burson-Marsteller, has identified a new group of opinion leaders - tech-fluentials. These tech-fluentials are powerful influencers who use high-end technologies to accelerate word-of-mouth marketing and turn their product recommendations into sales. The study revealed that 86 percent of tech-fluentials are asked by family, friends and colleagues for advice and influence these people's product choices. Tech-fluentials are a new breed of influential, technology-driven opinion leaders who seamlessly connect their work and personal lives while transmitting information about companies, brands and products. All-powerful chat rooms, web sites, digital cameras, discussion boards and blogs are the tools of the trade for these influencers who can create or change opinions, establish trends, build buzz for a brand and sway stakeholders. Almost all tech-fluentials indicate that quality (98 percent) and function (97 percent) -regardless of price (74 percent) - are the primary factors that influence their technology purchasing decisions. More than three-quarters (76 percent) say they buy technology products based on design and style. Forty-two percent of tech-fluentials purchase a company's products and services after learning about a company's social responsibility programs. Tech-fluentials are fast communicators at home, at work and on the go.
According to the research sample of 400, tech-fluentials buzz about companies offline and online.
The tech-fluentials study is based on Burson-Marsteller's research on e-fluentials, a powerful group of online opinion makers. Using its proprietary algorithm, Burson-Marsteller screened WIRED panel members and identified 400 e-fluentials among them. For complete information on e-fluentials, please visit -------------------------------------- Copyright 2005 4th WAVE, Inc. To subscribe to WAVE go to To unsubscribe also use the Wave Report Home page or send the preformatted UNSUBSCRIBE message: Previous issues of WAVE, as well as other info can be found at http://www.wave-report.com Comments on or questions about the WAVE may be sent to: or the below individuals below: John N. Latta - Editor-In-Chief Michael Robertson - Web Editor The WAVE Report may be redistributed in full for individual readership and posted to newsgroups, Web, and FTP sites. This publication may not be reprinted or redistributed for profit. Short quotes are permitted but must be attributed to the WAVE Report. 4th Wave retains the copyright to the WAVE Report.
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