The WAVE Report is Searchable on http://www.3dlinks.com -------------------------------------- Important holiday notice for our readers: The final 2004 issue of the WAVE Report will be published on December 17. There will be no issues on December 24 and December 31. We will resume publishing on January 7, 2005 with conference reports from Ambient Intelligence, Electronica and IST 2004. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 0448.1 Hot Topics 0448.2 Story of the Issue 0448.3 Retail E-Mail 0448.4 Satellite Services 0448.5 Fuel Cell Technology 0448.6 IT Outsourcing
0448.7 Print Suppliers
0448.8 2D Animation 0448.9 Portable Storage
0448.10 Wireless Connectivity
-------------------------------------- ***Industry, Law Enforcement Team To Launch Digital PhishNet REDMOND, Wash. Representatives from a number of industries and international law enforcement agencies have announced the establishment of Digital PhishNet, a collaborative enforcement operation that unites industry leaders in technology, banking, financial services and online auctioneering with law enforcement to tackle "phishing," a destructive and growing form of online identity theft. Digital PhishNet establishes a single, unified line of communication between industry and law enforcement, so critical data to fight phishing can be compiled and provided to law enforcement in real time. Phishing is the particularly harmful and deceptive emerging online threat that involves directing consumers to phony Web sites, usually through forged or "spoofed" spam e-mails, to input personal financial information such as credit card numbers and passcodes. While other industry groups have focused on identifying phishing Web sites and sharing best practices and case information, Digital PhishNet is the first group of its kind to focus on aiding criminal law enforcement and assisting in apprehending and prosecuting those responsible for committing crimes against consumers through phishing. Digital PhishNet brings together industry leaders from nine of the top 10 U.S. banks and financial services providers, four of the top five Internet service providers and five digital commerce and technology companies, and works with top federal and international law enforcement agencies. Participants in Digital PhishNet have come together to actively and aggressively seek out phishing Web sites and identify the origins of the spam e-mails designed to deceive consumers into visiting these phony Web sites. The law enforcement supporters of Digital PhishNet have formed an alliance with federal, state and local law enforcement agencies that will use the aggregated data, along with various tools and strategies, to identify and arrest those suspected of perpetrating phishing scams. Deceptive and insidious phishing scams require an adept and multifaceted approach by industry and law enforcement. Phishing scams usually are initiated through spam e-mail messages that direct consumers to visit a phony Web site -- often an exact replica of a legitimate corporate Web site -- and ask for passwords and other sensitive personal or financial information. Phishers "spoof" or falsify e-mail addresses, purporting to be associated with the legitimate organizations they are targeting, and instruct consumers to visit these sites in order to "update their account information." In many cases, phishers also download spyware and viruses onto consumers' computers to track their online activity or cause damage to their files and hard drives. Developing supporters of Digital PhishNet include America Online Inc., Digital River Inc., EarthLink Inc., Lycos Inc., Microsoft Corp., Network Solutions, VeriSign Inc., the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), the U.S. Secret Service (USSS) and the U.S. Postal Inspection Service (USPIS). More information can be found at http://www.digitalphishnet.org/ ***Wearable Computers 2004 2004 8th IEEE International Symposium on Wearable Computers (ISWC) This conference was held back-to-back with the International Symposium on Mixed and Augmented Reality - ISMAR 04. This has long been at the leading edge of where many feel computing will go - creating new environments that one can wear, see and otherwise experience. Much of this dates back to the early efforts in VR in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s. Those days have passed but the lure and potential of the technology has not. This conference, in spite of being small, about 200, has an international scope. It is equally divided between North American, Asia and Europe. Certainly the notion of wearable computers is not new but, having watched this technology evolve over the last 15 years, there is a sense of gradual maturity. The displays are smaller, computers are being shown that are the size of a belt buckle and many of the attendees wear a HMD throughout the conference. Certainly the interest of the military in wearable computers is a powerful forcing function, at least in the US. But what strikes us is the depth of what is considered a wearable computer and how these are being applied. We are at the beginning of a shift from computing as we know it today and wearable computers is just one component of that shift.
Bill Baxton, well known industrial designer, yanked the audience around mentally with his notions of the user interface in the era of ubiquitous computing. His keynote address was thought provoking. It reinforced a theme heard many times before – the epicenter of personal computing is shifting from the PC. Bill was at Xerox PARC and other research organizations. He is now on his own at Buxton Design. His keynote talk was: Whereable Computing. He made the following key points:
Bill pushed the envelope of thinking to show how we should rethink complexity, UI and the future of computers by increasing thought about WHERE and not what.
In 2002, IBM undertook to make a personal hub that an individual could carry with them. This had Bluetooth technology, a Linux OS and sophisticated software to make it a networking hub at which any technologist could marvel. Only one slight problem – all the functionality is being overtaken by the cell phone. What survived from the effort were the applications, especially those in health and wellness. In 2001 the idea was compelling: a device that could interface between user appliances and a 2G/3G network. Using this network as transport, it is possible to reach rich services and content. The hub could:
Many usage scenarios were shown. These included: entertainment, healthcare, commerce and travel. From this, hub design requirements were developed that included:
In the end there was no such need for a custom device. The project moved to the Ericsson P800 and P900 phones. The value came from the devices created to interface to the hub – such as a blood pressure monitor. These had to add Bluetooth support; and they could then use the 3G infrastructure to reach the applications.
It is not surprising at a wearable computing conference one would see intelligent clothing. But what strikes us is that the dynamics of free markets is making computing-like clothing. There is low cost clothing that can be just as useful, in functionality, as expensive clothing. Elements of style and taste are more important than even function. When it is worn, it is not the same as a PC.
AlphaGrip was showing a handheld device which looks much like an oversized game pad. But, it has a complete keyboard and mouse. It is claimed to have an input speed of 50 wpm. Only a wired version was shown. The device goes on sale early 2005 and will cost $95.
This was a leather belt whose buckle is a computer. Sporting an Intel xScale processor and 256MB of memory, this is a complete computer that can feed a VGA display. With a Linux OS, the design was compact and impressive. Price is high at 3,250 Euro.
This was an unusual HMD which looks to be no more that a transparent piece of glass in front of the eye. We saw this and were impressed. The technology to convert the display into the image on the glass is called Light-Guide Optical Element (LOE). The current display is QVGA and a VGA version is planned for 2005. Upon closer examination, it appears that the optics are segmented into what appear to be prisms. These prisms, or virtual prisms, allow the image to propagate down the glass. When looking at the display, the prism effect can hardly be seen. This is one of the least invasive HMDs we have seen.
It was only a matter of time. The TJ Watson Research Center at IBM was showing a device that allows for one’s machine state to be carried with them. Contained in a box about 4” X 3” X 1” this allows for the complete PC state to be moved to another computer while on the road. It uses VM technology to implement the virtual machine. The claimed value includes a simple usage model and only 2m to resume and 30s to suspend. What was shown was an early prototype. IBM did state there are a number of software licensing issues. This is an excellent example of carry vs. find.
Ken Lyons, Georgia Institute of Technology, has developed a one-handed keyboard called the Twiddler. Here at Wearable Computers, he described training and testing to improve the key entry rate. Why would one care about a one handed key entry device – wireless messaging? Instant text messaging on mobile phones is approaching 1T per year. With input rates at only 8 w/m, there is room for significant improvement. Past efforts with the Twiddler have shown it is capable of 26 w/m and now they reported rates to 40 to 60 w/m in 80 training sessions. Such a device could represent a major improvement instant message input. The wireless messaging market in 2002 was $12B. There are now 1.3B mobile phone users. Yet, there have been very few products that support effective text input for wireless messaging outside of the phone itself. The novice Multi-tap input on a Nokia 3210 is 8 w/m while the Motorola i85ci moves along at 11 w/m. Yet, typing on a standard keyboard can easily run at 60 w/m with burst rates to 120 w/m. If wireless messaging input is to improve, something more than a standard phone key pad is needed. At the same time, typical form factor keyboards are too large. The Twiddler is a 3 X 4 grid of buttons which is operated much like a guitar with one hand. There are one button characters and two button characters. Input is called cording. Georgia Institute of Technology sought to improve the input rate by training users and examining how the Twiddler is used. Participants were selected that had typing rates of 54 to 114 w/m. They each spent 20 minutes per session and were paid based on speed and accuracy. The results were quite striking, with the upper rate on the Twoddler being 67 w/m and the lower rate 40 w/m. The study looked at the patterns of key usage including hold and release intervals. Also investigated was the use of multiple character strings. Another study examined blind typing – that is the use of the Twiddler without seeing what is being typed. This could even be done when the Twiddler is in one’s pocket. The blind rates varied from 67.7 to 36.6 w/m. To be looked at the future are other key maps and means to enhance novice user performance. I asked Ken Lyons after the talk – have you explored the use of Bluetooth on the Twiddler as a means of wireless input to the cell phone. He responded that it was a logical step.
Columbia University presented intriguing work on how to design an effective UI within the constraints of the very limited surface area of a wrist device. What was chosen was something which has the surface area like a watch. One of the driving factors with small area displays is that the interaction and visual attention times are short. A tablet PC has times of 1m and greater while a watch has gets only glances of 1 second. This gives rise to “Glance-able UIs.” The criteria for such UIs include:
This effort began by building on the tactile watches which are on the market today, of which there is the Tissot Silent. The watch chosen for this study was the IBM Linux watch. Prototyping was done with a touch pad. The approach taken in the UI used motions of the finger on the surface of the display. This allowed the user to move through multiple levels of a menu. An advanced technique used concatenated strokes where the length of the stroke mattered. The next step in the research is to port the UI to a Watch Pad for testing.
Marc Eaddy of Columbia University reported on work done with Rochester Institute of Technology that allowed one to interact with public displays and keep that interaction private. A taxonomy was presented of the input and output of public and private displays that showed the modalities used. This led to the motivation for EyeGuide. When seen on the person, the EyeGuide appears complex and burdensome. What is more important is the concept. This “HMD” like device does the following: tracks the eye of the individual watching the display. There is a camera that watches the scene and a head tracker. The device allows one to look at a public display such as a simple subway map, and the movement of the eye provides clues on the issues the observer is facing. For example, the individual may be lost and, by knowing the private use of the display map, instructions can be given to the individual. This simple example masks the level of support that such a device could provide – even in person-to-person communications with a public display.
ETH Zurich, Switzerland, presented results on the model for studying Interruptability. This was applied in the case of wearable computers, but the concept of gaining the attention of an unfocused person to the cause of the interruption is interesting. The paper highlighted two dimensions to the problem: personal interrruptability and social interruptability. What is important here is that one does not think about the many issues that ubiquitous computing poses and, as a result, the insights were quite fresh.
What is significant here is that the envelope is being pushed on how individuals relate to computers in their daily lives. Yes, some seem silly but many others are becoming practical. Wearable Computers is an event which paints one picture of the future of computing. One of the most important parts of Wearable Computers is the way it forces us to think about the future of computing. Yes, much of this was made evident at CHI in Vienna and again at Mobiquitious in Boston. We are seeing many more data points that begin to define the future of how individuals will relate to computers or, better yet, forget how they relate to computers. Here at Wearable Computers the automobile came up in Bill Buxton’s talk as today’s ubiquitous computing environment. This is not an open platform and, as he provided in an example, BMW defines the environment that the driver and passenger experiences. One should not forget that the most expensive component of the car, after the engine, is the wiring harness. If the car is one form of ubiquitous computing, the cell phone is the other. IBM had grand plans for a Personal Hub but the cell phone made this obsolete before the concept could even be completed. All of this revised thinking is cause for us to face the reality that we are midst of a changing environment of how individuals use and relate to computing devices. When the PC market is flat, there is still the potential for significant growth markets. But as we saw here, and at other events, the future is not where we have been in the past. Be it a personal display no larger than stick of gum in front of the eye, a computer in the shape of a stick of gum or vehicle with more computers than we can count, the opportunity space is very different and diffuse. ***Bigfoot Interactive Announces Third Quarter Vertical Market Benchmark Results with Record Deliverability for Retail Clients NEW YORK Bigfoot Interactive, a provider of strategic, ROI-focused email communications solutions and marketing automation technologies, has announced the release of its quarterly vertical benchmark analysis for Q3 2004 email communications campaigns. While all overall delivery rates (total emails attempted minus all failures) remained strong, deliverability for retail clients reached an all-time high, 94.6 percent, as leading retailers continued their intense focus on hygiene efforts moving into the critical Q4 holiday season. Across the board, there was continued commitment to timely, relevant email communications that offer value, which was best demonstrated by the enormous success of year end model clearance and new model launch promotions from leading automotive manufacturers communicating with owners and hand-raisers. In addition, publishers continued to have great success with editorial efforts that included the increased use of personalized newsletters leveraging dynamic content served around specific news topics and categories of interest. Financial Services held steady this quarter, driven by the strength of service-oriented email communications efforts and the critical, timely nature of the messaging. Online bill payment and presentment remained the primary drivers behind the sustained success of email communications in this category.
Retail - Delivery of retail email campaigns hit an all time high this quarter, reaching 94.6 percent as retailers turned a sharp focus on hygiene efforts heading into the all important Q4 holiday marketing push. Retailers continue to turn to email as an efficient and effective tool in their promotional efforts for the holiday as volumes begin to escalate in anticipation of an increased reliance on this medium to increase marketing return on investment. As a result the number of email messages sent over Q3 '04 increased by more than 81% over Q2 '04 and was spurred on by back-to-school and fall promotional sales efforts. The average unique click through rate (CTR) from promotional messages was 3.8%, yielding a slight increase of 2.5% over Q2 '04 despite the large increase in volume. Media - Media led key verticals with a significant 95.2% overall delivery rate, with the editorial newsletters subset reaching a near-perfect delivery rate of 97.8%. Creative and innovative promotions launched around the 2004 Olympic Games generated a staggering 211.3% increase in the overall performance of promotional messaging (compared to same period last year). Publishers that increasingly build out of their dynamic content offerings within editorial efforts continue to see strong results in unique click through rates, with an average of 12.7% for the Q3 '04 quarter - a 23% increase over Q3 03 results. Financial Services - Service messaging fared particularly well, with unique open rates surpassing 50% and average unique CTR of 22.6%. This was driven by the continued strength of online account service messaging. Automotive - Q3 marked one of the strongest quarters for automotive marketers. Clearance and '05 model pre-launch/launch promotions generated high interest and an average unique CTR of 30.2% - notably higher (50.2% increase) than last quarter's results and a 28.2% increase over Q3 '03 results. Methodology, Transparency Remains Key in Reporting Bigfoot Interactive's transparent delivery reporting includes total emails attempted minus all failures (hard and soft). Findings from the Q3 2004 trend analysis were aggregated from Bigfoot Interactive's automated email technology platform, DREAMSM (Direct Response Email Application Manager) and were based on all retention-based mailings from July 1, 2004 through September 30, 2004. Individual campaign results can dramatically vary based on audience, creative, subject line/offer and more. http://www.bigfootinteractive.com ***Digital Satellite TV Platforms Continue to Gain Subscribers, and Profits Are on the Rise, Reports In-Stat/MDR SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. Digital satellite pay TV platforms continue to grow in many areas of the world, and are expected to enjoy higher profitability over the next several years, according to In-Stat/MDR. However, growth in some mature regional markets is slowing or stagnating, the high-tech research firm says. In-Stat/MDR expects 40 million worldwide DTH pay-TV subscribers to be added through 2008 as compared to the 61 million digital DTH pay-TV subscribers that were active at the end of 2003. They also note that in addition to an increasing subscriber base, the industry's profits are on the rise due to reductions in equipment costs, increases in package pricing, and new revenues from new services and features. A recent In-Stat/MDR report also found:
The report, "Worldwide Digital Satellite Pay-TV Platforms: A Mixed Bag in 2004" (#IN0401236MB), includes five-year forecasts for digital DTH pay-TV subscribers, revenues and annual ARPU by region. http://www.instat.com/catalog/Ccatalogue.asp?id=39 ***Medis Technologies Announces Delivery of Advanced Fuel Cell Power Packs to General Dynamics for Testing NEW YORK Medis Technologies Ltd. announced that it made available functional prototype fuel cell Power Packs and fuel cartridges to General Dynamics C4 Systems, a business unit of General Dynamics for testing in connection with an advanced, rugged personal digital assistant (PDA) being developed for the U.S. Department of Defense. Each Medis Power Pack is currently capable of delivering five watts and five volts of continuous power. The Medis technical team will work closely with General Dynamics to evaluate the ability of the Power Packs and cartridges to meet extended mission requirements and military environmental specifications. Medis will incorporate product enhancements in future designs. One of the program objectives is to successfully demonstrate that one Power Pack with six cartridges can provide the power density necessary to sustain a typical seventy-two hour mission for special operations forces. It is anticipated that the testing program could take up to nine months. Medis believes that the delivery of five watts and five volts demonstrates far greater power capability - both power density and energy capacity - than any existing micro fuel cell technology in the world. In late February 2005 Medis plans to start presenting disposable Power Pack products for the commercial market to potential customers, including distributors, certain mobile operators and Original Equipment Manufacturers for demonstration and testing of those products. http://www.medistechnologies.com Federal Government Outsource Spending Expected to Grow 55 Percent over the Next 5 Years; Expected Workforce Shortage Due to Federal IT Employee Retirement is a Driving Factor RESTON, Va. Federal IT outsourcing is expected to be one of the fastest growing federal IT market segments over the next five years with a forecasted compound annual growth rate of 8.3 percent, according to a report released by INPUT, the a leader in government market intelligence. U.S. federal government spending on IT outsourcing will grow from $11.7 billion in FY04 to $17.4 billion in FY 2009. Perhaps the most important factor driving the market is the fact that a significant percentage of federal IT personnel is reaching retirement age, leaving the federal government with little choice but to pursue outsourcing as a means to address a workforce shortage. It is projected that a full third of the current workforce's program management will be lost to retirement by 2006. According to the report, the military services lead spending in the outsourcing market with the largest portion of spending directed at the Navy Marine Corps Intranet (NMCI) contract out of the Department of the Navy. Programs such as the Integrated Deepwater Project out of the Department of Homeland Security will drive spending on the civilian side of the market. Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) is the fastest growing type of outsourcing arrangement, growing at a rate of almost 11 percent annually over the next five years. With BPO, the vendor is responsible for an entire business function, including the information systems that support it. An example of this is the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) which outsources the operation of its National Flood Insurance program. To download a summary of INPUT's Federal Outsourcing MarketView, go to http://fedoutsourcing.input.com Paper Mate Inks Plan to Enter the $15 Billion Inkjet Printer Cartridge Market CHICAGO Paper Mate has announced it is entering the $15 billion inkjet printer cartridge market by licensing Legacy Manufacturing, LLC (Denver headquarters) to produce a line of Paper Mate inkjet printer cartridges. Paper Mate inkjet cartridges with new AccuSharp ink technology begin shipping in mid-January. Paper Mate selected the North American Inkjet Production Division of Legacy Manufacturing, LLC for the license because of its ability to design and manufacture high quality, value-oriented cartridges using AccuSharp inks, a series of specially formulated inks that provide vibrant print outs. The national rollout will begin January 2005 starting with a major kick-off at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) held in Las Vegas, January 6 - 9. Paper Mate inkjet cartridges will be sold in consumer electronics stores, office product stores, mass merchandisers and drug and grocery stores. Paper Mate cartridges are compatible with the most popular HP, Epson and Canon printers. Suggested retail prices range from $6.50 to $30.00, depending upon the printer model. All Paper Mate inkjet printer cartridges with AccuSharp ink technology carry a one-year satisfaction guarantee. ***Toon Boom Studio v2.5 for PC is Now Available Montreal Toon Boom Animation has announced the customer release of Toon Boom Studio v2.5 for PC. It is similar to the Mac 2.5 version. Release V2.5 includes a number of new features that will increase both creativity and productivity, like support for scanning and for drawing in the 3D Sceneplanning space, as well as enhanced sound scrubbing, and visualization and manipulation of drawings and keyframes in the Timeline. With each release, Toon Boom Studio is injected with powerful new features that will help make the most of the artist’s talents and time. New features include:
The v2.5 update sells at $ 199 USD for V1 customers and at $ 99 USD for V2 customers. For Academic (schools and students) customers, v2.5 update sells at $ 99 USD for V1 customers and at $ 79 USD for V2 customers. ***PRETEC Electonics Offers High Capacity i-Disk II 8GB USB Flash Drive FREMONT, Calif. Pretec Electronics Corp. has announced the highest known capacity and high speed USB flash drive supporting dual channel data transmission, which can reach the highest average transfer rate up to 120X. Equipped with hi-speed transmission of dual channel technology, PRETEC i-Disk II 8GB can process files transfer concurrently and bring an extremely high speed in read & write up to 16MB/sec and 12MB/sec. With its design-in functions of data encryption, compression and write protection, users can fully leverage the largest memory space of PRETEC i-Disk II 8GB under a data secured environment. Light weight, compact, and bundled with the FlashMail, MobileLock, SecretZip software, PRETEC i-Disk II 8GB is a perfect storage solution for active mobile users traveling around the world. Combining the features of ultra-large capacity, streamline modeling, high reliable transmission speed, and full data protection, PRETEC i-Disk II 8GB is a significant storage solution to fit USB devices of PC, Notebook, and i-Mac. It currently provides memory range from 128MB up to 4GB for accessing the mass data, imaging pictures, music files. Also connecting with Bluetooth and WLAN technology in the future, providing more convenient, diversified storage applications, PRETEC i-Disk II 8GB USB flash drive is sampling now, with mass production scheduled by next month. ***TelecomView Study Finds WiMAX Will Horn In on 3G Data Market SAN FRANCISCO WiMAX and other new high-speed wireless technologies will capture more than 40 percent of the Wireless Broadband, leaving 3G with less than 60 percent of the market in 2009. These new technologies provide significant opportunities for incumbent and competitive carriers, according to TelecomView's new report, Wireless Broadband: Will it Replace 3G and Fixed Broadband. This report analyzes the market for Wireless Broadband through 2009 with an emphasis on how the increased performance of new technologies such as WiMAX and TD-CDMA (UMTS-TDD) will affect the market for 3G data services. TelecomView's report discusses WiMAX, TD-CDMA, 3G, and other Wireless Broadband technologies. It covers current deployments, regulatory issues, and the business case for these new technologies for both urban and rural deployments. The report includes a forecast segmented into eight regions globally that provides a fine grained view of the market. This is the inaugural report from TelecomView. -------------------------------------- Copyright 2005 4th WAVE, Inc. To subscribe to WAVE go to To unsubscribe also use the Wave Report Home page or send the preformatted UNSUBSCRIBE message: Previous issues of WAVE, as well as other info can be found at http://www.wave-report.com Comments on or questions about the WAVE may be sent to: or the below individuals below: John N. Latta - Editor-In-Chief Michael Robertson - Web Editor The WAVE Report may be redistributed in full for individual readership and posted to newsgroups, Web, and FTP sites. This publication may not be reprinted or redistributed for profit. Short quotes are permitted but must be attributed to the WAVE Report. 4th Wave retains the copyright to the WAVE Report.
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