The WAVE Report on Digital Media
3D --- Media Creation --- Shared Space
---Published by 4th Wave, Inc.---
Issue #0337------------------11/14/03

 

The WAVE Report is Searchable on

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0337.1 Hot Topics

0337.2 Story of the Issue

0337.3 3D

0337.4 OLED

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0337.1 Hot Topics

***USDC Program Will Fund Integration of OLEDs into Military Products
(November 11)

The U.S. Display Consortium announced today that integration of organic light emitting diode displays (OLEDs) into military platforms will be tested under an R&D contract issued by the USDC to defense contractors Rockwell Collins and General Dynamics. The $865,000 award is among the first attempts to use OLEDs in military communications and armament products. The USDC is a public/private partnership chartered with developing the flat panel display (FPD) industry supply chain

The contract will be in two parts, with cost shared equally between the consortium and Rockwell Collins. In the first part of the project, Rockwell Collins will integrate a 2 to 3 inch OLED device into a handheld navigation/data display unit. The prototype work will be conducted by Rockwell Collins at Ft. Huachuca, AZ. General Dynamics Canada, as a subcontractor to Rockwell Collins, will conduct the second part of the project at the Picatinny Arsenal, NJ. An artillery weapon and a mortar system are the platforms selected by General Dynamics for OLED integration.

Electronic displays must function in a variety of environments, and military applications often provide a harsh test of product reliability. The OLED integration project being supported by the USDC funds will test various electro-optical characteristics, including luminance, specular and diffuse reflectance, contrast, chromaticity and image retention. Additionally, temperature and humidity tests will determine the durability of the OLED displays.

OLED technology is attracting attention and corporate investment from firms such as Kodak, DuPont, Universal Display Corporation and Cambridge Display Technology, among others. Unlike liquid crystal displays (LCDs), which require backlights to function properly, OLEDs emit light when an electrical current is applied. Companies believe that eliminating the backlight will result in more rugged device, that consumes less power while providing a brighter image.

The USDC program is a collaborative effort of private industry and the U.S. Army Research Laboratory, located in Adelphi, MD. The USDC, headquartered in San Jose, is an industry-led public/private partnership providing a common platform for flat panel display manufacturers and developers, FPD users, and the supplier base. Rockwell Collins is a global company providing aviation electronics for aircraft manufacturers and more than 400 airline customers, as well as military forces.

http://www.usdc.org
http://www.rockwellcollins.com


***Superscape Extends Swerve for QUALCOMM BREW
(November 12)

Superscape Group plc, developers of Swerve technology for the creation and delivery of interactive 3D applications on mobile devices, today announced the development of the Swerve extension for QUALCOMM’s Binary Runtime Environment for Wireless (BREW) platform. Superscape stated that the Swerve extension for the BREW platform will provide BREW developers with the ability to create interactive 3D applications to integrate with other BREW-based services.

One of the first examples of the Swerve extension being used for a BREW-based application is “S.W.A.T. The Movie: 3D Game,” a new title published by Sony Pictures Mobile. Based on the motion picture "S.W.A.T.," the game will be available early next year. Players will have the opportunity to choose from seven different missions which can be downloaded wirelessly to their mobile device. The game will include a range of interactive 3D targets which ‘react’ when a player shoots and hits the object. The game will also feature animated, full-motion video sequences that will provide background on the missions and gameplay.

QUALCOMM’s BREW system provides products and services that connect application developers, publishers, content providers, device manufacturers, operators and consumers.

http://ww.superscape.com


***Alvarion and Airspan Chosen as Suppliers by Telekom Srbija A.D.
(November 12)

Telekom Srbija a.d., the incumbent telecommunications operator of the Republic of Serbia, today announced that it has named Alvarion Ltd. and Airspan Networks Inc. as suppliers for its initiative to enhance and extend Serbia's telecommunications infrastructure. Telekom Srbija a.d. will deploy over 100,000 new telephony and data lines, based on wireless last mile solutions. Alvarion and Airspan, chosen after an evaluation of 18 suppliers, are in the process of negotiating long-term frame agreements, pursuant to which Telekom Srbija a.d. will place orders with the two vendors for specific solutions according to the requirements of each region.

Alvarion stated that the scope of this project will take advantage of its product offerings, large-scale project experience and customer service capabilities, to deploy voice services and augment them with Internet access and various other data services.

Airspan stated that their family of products will enhance Telekom Srbija a.d.'s network build-out by providing voice and data capabilities for urban and rural topologies. Airspan stated that their products are deployed in customer applications throughout the world with incumbent operators. Deployment will be facilitated by Airspan's customer support organization and a range of implementation software and tools.

Telekom Srbija a.d. a.d. is the national telecommunications service provider of the Republic of Serbia. Established in 1997, it is owned jointly by Serbia's Postal Authority (PTT Srbija) (80%) and OTE, the Greek full-service telecommunications provider (20%). Alvarion offers wireless broadband solutions for access in the last mile, backhauling connection to the backbone and private network connectivity, with over 1.5 million units deployed in 130 countries worldwide. Airspan Networks provides broadband wireless systems and solutions to both licensed and unlicensed operators around the world, in frequency bands between 900 MHz and 6 GHz, including both the US PCS and international 3.5 GHz bands. The company has deployments with more than 120 operators in 60 countries.

http://www.telekom.yu
http://www.airspan.com
http://www.alvarion.com


0337.2 Story of the Issue

***Broadband World Forum 2003
By John Latta

September 8-10
London, UK

Broadband World Forum is put on by the International Engineering Consortium (IEC) which is located in Chicago. They provided the technical program at Supercomm 2003 and did an excellent job both at Supercomm and this event. Even on the first day, when only part of the event began, every session was packed and the standing room crowd was sent to a break-out room with an audio feed. Because so many are here, the networking is extensive. We were also surprised at the number of Asian participants but this is a reflection of the leadership they have in broadband. The IEC has announced Broadband World Forum Seoul for the spring and its chairperson is the CEO of KT. This promises to be an exciting event, given all the developments in Korea.

KT Blows’em Away

Seldom does one talk at a conference define the event. Jong-Lok Yoon, EVP, Marketing Planning Group, Korea Telecom (KT) spoke to a packed audience and turned the event. Highlights include:

- Broadband access brings in $1.5B a year in revenue to KT and $3B in all of Korea;

- KT, this year for the first time, is a fully privatized company. Our stock price is the same as it was 5 years ago. Few telecommunications companies can make that claim;

- ADSL passes 85.4% of the homes in Korea and the penetration rate is 69.1%;

- No longer is broadband about infrastructure. It is a part of life in Korea. The average user spends 17 hours a week on the Internet.

- 3% of our users consume 50% of the available bandwidth. KT is considering volume based pricing;

- Why did KT go to a 50Mb/s offering? It costs us the same.

- With the support of the Korean government a standards effort is underway to define an HDS integrated home gateway system – this is an intelligent gateway to service many devices in the home. We recently had a meeting to begin the development of this standard in Korea and many companies participated including appliance manufacturers. We expect that the first of these standard gateways will be available by the end of 2003. The initial quantities will be 15,000. One of our hardware partners is Samsung; and

- KT is developing a concept for OOC (On-Office Convergence) which they hope to franchise worldwide.

More details on Korea:

- 10m individuals received a 1 month training program on how to use a PC;

- The government did not invest directly into broadband deployment but spent $1.5B to upgrade the backbone;

- The government provided $1B in subsidies to make broadband available in rural areas;

- Every teacher has a web page; and

- The HDS, Home Detail Service, initiative seeks to integrate home networking with many forms of home appliances in additional to more traditional home networking. Parallels were drawn with CableHome and DSLHome, but details were hard to come by. However, if this specification is widely accepted in Korea it could become a de facto standard in Asia.

Plenary Panel: Making High-Speed Service a Mass Market Reality: Where Do We Stand

The second morning’s panel was very insightful. It had leaders from British Telecom, France Telecom, Deutsche Telecom, Korea Telecom and Belgacom. The market juxtaposition, which became so clear from the KT presentation, where Korea is already at mass market status and the others have not, was stark. KT is fighting market saturation which has not been seen in any other country. As a result the strategies to seek to maintain growth are much different than in Europe and the US where the emphasis is on installation growth.

British Telecom

- Broadband now passes 80% of the homes in the UK. The objective is to pass 100% of the homes, 90% will be done via ADSL and the remaining by satellite or radio. Currently the road map has a plan to go to 90% and the remaining 10% are in remote areas of England.

- Two years ago there were only 80,000 ADSL subscribers and now that number is 1.25m.

- A key element in that growth has been the stimulation of the market with an aggressive wholesale pricing effort on the part of BT. The price, under the wholesale effort, began at £14.75 when it dropped by ½. Then earlier this year it dropped to £13 and it is now less than £13.

- A key part of the plan to enable the COs was a registration scheme. The public was invited to register their interest in broadband before the COs were upgraded. This allowed BT to set priorities for the communities to receive broadband. 500 of the more remote COs fell under this. This was very successful. Some communities banned together to show support for connectivity and as a result locations surfaced which BT had never considered as high interest candidates. As BT stated, “…we saw a high degree of passion from our customers.”

- One of the reasons that the UK is a difficult market for broadband is that there is fixed cost, un-metered phone service. This is similar to the US and has only been present in the UK for the last 2 years. Unlimited phone calling costs only £15.

--- I spoke with BT earlier and it was stated that this irrational pricing had come from the craze of the dot com period. Some companies introduced fixed price calling when the basis for the service was variable wholesale rates. Of course, this did not work for long but once the tide had shifted there was no going back to metered calling.

- A key problem which BT is facing is low penetration. Across the UK the average is only 5.9% while the highest area, Reading, is only 9.1%. Thus, the difficult issue BT faces is on how to get the 2.3m dialup customers to convert to broadband? This is at the core of the mass market issue the panel discussed.

- Now the market, with these low cost wholesale prices, is focused on deals and schemes to get new subscribers, especially those away from dial-up. BT is working with Yahoo to focus on new applications for broadband

France Telecom

- France Telecom stated that they would begin to deploy ADSL 2+ in 2004 and 2005.

- FT took on 1m new customers in 2002, 2 m by June 2003 and 3m are expected by the end of 2003. The FT goal is to provide broadband access to all residential consumers, mostly by ADSL, and complemented by satellite and Wi-Fi.

- At FT we expect to reach 90% of the homes by 2005.

- FT copied the registration scheme that BT used.

- We have 250 people in FT just working on broadband services.

- By the end of 2003 FT will introduce new services on DSL. The first test pilot will be in Lyons and it includes digital television, programs on demand and interactive services.

Deutsche Telecom

- T-Com has 3.9m DSL lines. Our backbone moves 30,000 TB/month. This is equivalent to 20 million CD-ROMs. We have 120 ISPs on our network offering services.

- Significant emphasis is being placed on Wi-Fi in the home. No one likes wires in the home, especially the German woman. We are seeking to have WLAN drive broadband to a higher state. DSL and WLAN are good partners.

- DT has launched new multimedia distribution services. These services provide a benefit to both consumers and content providers. This is basically a content distribution network (CDN). It will also support individual web cams, for example. Note that it is not television service.

Korea Telecom

- It is now “Hands on in Korea.” Broadband is no longer an infrastructure. It is the environment – like air and water. The Internet is a part of life in Korea.

- There are now 20,000 internet cafe’s running broadband at a moderate rate. We take this to include PC-Bong’s.

- KT has 5.5m subscribers and 300,000 Wi-Fi users and seeks to have 600,000 by the end of 2003. We currently have 1 million subscribers to the high speed VDSL service.

- We are asked – why do the 50Mb/s service? Our response was--it cost the same.

- The bandwidth available is sufficient to support any rich content.

- The down side of our success is that the install rate is falling. Right now this has fallen to 3,000/day and we expect that by the end of the year it will be at 1,000/day. Our market is reaching saturation.

- KT has lost $500 million in revenue from the loss in wireline subscribers. (Note how the DSL access revenue is 3X this.)

- In order to enable KT to continue to grow we have launched an effort called BBB – Beyond Broadband. This strategy has three parts:

1) Converge our wired, wireless and 4G networks;
2) Introduce multi-functional devices; and
3) Provide content to both fixed and mobile devices.

- This strategy will be implemented in three ways that the customer will see:

-- Platform – Integrating through the Platform be it home, office or the vehicle

-- Personalization – Making the services personal

-- Adding value – such as e-Health, security and VoD.

- There is a business and home architecture to these plans. We were surprised to see a key business partner being Intel and the chart actually had Intel above KT. Other partners included Sprint, Samsung, LG and Softbank BB.

- The business plan for BBB is called Bizmeka. This looked much like IT outsourcing and consulting. If this is the case it marks a major move by KT and reflective of the distance they must go away from communications to grow the business.

- On the consumer side BBB includes Home Media and this has a CDN element. There is also a component of IP Multicasting of BBB.

- They describe the creation of the HDS platform which builds on the partnerships with
-- Applications Service Providers;
-- Convergence Partners; and
-- Advertising Partners.
The HDS platform includes: a solutions focus, brand development, customized services and an interactive platform. It was at this point KT introduced the important role of the home gateway.

- KT has constructed a HDS demo facility in Seoul.

- KT will introduce a portable home media platform next year.

- In order to accelerate convergence KT is promoting the concept of OOC (on-Office Convergence). This looked like a pod concept which integrates many digital functions. More like a digital Kinkos with Starbucks and a business meeting center. They hope to franchise this.

- In order to accomplish this ambitious plan KT outlined the following issues:
-- Rapid migration to IPv6;
-- Developing a means to gain revenue from the ISPs, especially those with high value content; and
-- Introduce volume-rate pricing system.

At the end of this session Dave Burstein, of DSL Prime, asked the only question:

When is London and Paris going to get 50Mb/s service like Korea? The responses were most interesting.

BT:
Need content.

FT:
Need content and regulator issues should be resolved.

DT:
No need as we have no intent to offer a triple play.

Belgacom:
We are moving in this direction and expect to have such services by 2007 as the fiber penetration increases.

Fujitsu Siemens Computers: A CE PC

Fujitsu Siemens, VP Björn Fehrm, gave an aggressive talk on a new product to be launched by 15 November, 2003, the ACTIVY Media Center, FiTV. This is based on an embedded version of Windows XP and uses WM9. One would not know this is Windows from the consumer electronics (CE) product box. Included are a personal video recorder (PVR), set-top box (STB), home gateway, electronic program guide (EPG), media player, Internet browser, an interface to conventional TV signals and more. This will be launched in conjunction with T-Mobile and will use the Vision service to provide EPG and other services. In the process, this project breaks many of the perceptions of what broadband is about, the role of content and who will buy an Internet connected box.

What then is the product - FiTV?

A multiple purpose CE device based on a media PC using an embedded version of Windows XP. It has a 3GHz Intel processor and hard disk. However, the box looks like a VCR or DVD player. In all the product illustrations in the presentation, the box was sandwiched between the sides of a Swiss Army Knife. Some of the functionality and interfaces include:

- Ability to receive all TV formats including
--- Analog
--- Digital
--- Pay-TV
- Interface to the Broadband network just as any PC would.
- PVR
- DVD Recorder
- Home networking gateway
- Internet browsing on the television
- E-mail on the television
- DRM
- Accessible from the Internet for programming
--- Remote control of PVR functionality such as with a browser from ones office

How does FiTV work?

- Television content comes in via the traditional TV format interfaces.

- Movies come in via DSL--but not streaming. This is not IP TV.

- Movies are downloaded during low network activity times to the hard disk. A movie typically takes 1GB. Based on the expected popularity of a movie it can be downloaded to a FiTV even if it has not been requested. Thus, it is stored on the FiTV in the event it is requested –local movie cache. DT insisted that there be no streaming because they did not want to jeopardize their quality image.
(Note that the CDN we heard about from Deutsche Telecom would be directly supportive of this product. Further, it is now clear why DT has no interest in triple play when FiTV is available.)

- T-Online Vision service is based on tiered pricing. A text based EPG is available at no cost and the advance window to programs is 1 week. For 1 – 2 €/month extra the customer can get a graphical color version of the EPG. The EPG allows the customer to select programming for the FiTV or to order movies.

- FiTV is also a residential gateway.

- FiTV provides a quality interface to the internet, i.e, browsing, IM and e-mail, via the television.

What are some of the factors which make this product viable?

- Fujitsu Siemens determined that MPEG-4 would not be acceptable to Hollywood, in terms of DRM, and the only DRM which would meet these expectations was WM9.

- Web browsing is expensive in terms of computation power. It typically takes 1000MHz and at least 64MB. With a system based on a 3GHz processor this is not an issue.

- The use of the PC enabled much to be done in the FiTV that would otherwise be difficult to accomplish with more traditional CE product designs.

- This effort was a project between Fujitsu Siemens Computer and T-Online. Fujitsu Siemens Computers found that it was only with the telephone companies that it can work on such a project. The business and engineering cultures did not mesh with the cable companies, even German Cable. DT took a project approach and this was what was required to make this product happen.

What are some of the market decisions?

- Research showed that the high end consumer is very frustrated with the loss of the VCR in the new forms of television media. The growth of DVD recorders was actually 500% in the last year in Germany. For example, there were 50,000 units sold at retail. Thus, German consumers want quality and will pay for it.

- In spite of the presence of digital television in the EU, only 10% of the public watch it. Thus, it was essential to make sure FiTV has an analog television interface.

- Interactive television has been around a long time and is a total bust. FiTV is not an interactive television product.

This whole product cost Fujitsu Siemens Computers only $20m to develop. It should be noted that the group that did this box has been in the interactive TV business for 10 years. Apparently nothing came of these efforts and this product only came to a head in the last 12 months.

Fujitsu Siemens Computes is in discussions with other telecoms to introduce this product in other countries in Europe. It is also being seriously considered if FiTV would be introduced without any online partner.

The features which were left out, and Björn Fehrum said he regretted this, were video editing and a camcorder interface. This will be corrected by the spring.

Samsung: Vision of the Broadband Home

In their opening talk, Samsung took a very holistic view of communications which included both wireline and wireless carriers. At the core are IPv6 and a MPLS backbone. It was in the home that Samsung laid out aggressive requirements for the “Multimedia Home/Office Gateway and IP Terminal.” This included one terminal for multi-mode access, Intelligence and Mobility and Seamless links among the NGN core, Home/Office gateway and the IP terminal. Some of the IP terminals shown included:
-- Home appliances,
-- Home automation,
-- Finger print recognition,
-- Doors,
-- Auto doors and
-- Entertainment.
Samsung announced that they would have an HPi product, a high speed portable internet device, in 2004. Samsung has also implemented a converged phone that works inside as a traditional phone and outside as a mobile phone. Home connectivity would be with Bluetooth. Initial trials included Samsung offices and in hotels. They claim it has been very well received. Samsung was specific in not disclosing its plans for the home gateway product.

Samsung: Next is a Personal Gateway

On the last day, Samsung presented their vision of the future. Hung Song, VP, Global Marketing Group, Telecommunications Systems Division, Samsung Electronics gave an overview of the Korean mobile and broadband market. He also outlined his vision of the future home. He suggested that the next gateway in the home will be personal gateways that one wears. This is intended to carry personal information and much more.

- There are 21m CDMA 2000 1X subscribers, 1.65m EV-DO subscribers and 10.5m CDMAOne subscribers in Korea. The mobile network supports TV broadcasting to the phone, mobile movies, sports TV and traffic video. The mobile penetration rate is 69.4%

- The broadband penetration rate is 73%.
When asked, consumers ranked the desired services as:
-- Home Security and Health Care
-- Home Automation and Control
-- Home Theater
-- Education
Samsung has built the home of the future in Samsung Tower Place. These are network ready apartments and 2,500 have been in operation since November 2002. Internet access is provided via a home gateway. There is built in home security, home control and entertainment.

- This is summer holiday season in Korea and the mobile/broadband providers have responded to consumers. SK Telecom provides the NATE Home Care Service which includes home lighting control and on/off control of appliances. A home view service will be available in H2 2003. This service is fully accessible on the Internet but also available via phones. KTF also provides for remote security, door lock service and house monitoring. KTF is only a mobile service and is accessible via the phones.

- Korea has launched the Digital Home Initiative. The intent of the MIC Project is to create 10m Intelligent Digital Homes by 2007. In 2003 there was $4B in government funds and $8B from the private sector. Over the period from 2004 to 2007 the government will invest $10B and the private sector will put in $20B. This will net a series of converged services that include: telecommunications, home networks and community services. The capabilities include HDTV quality for video, VoD, TV on Demand and Cyber Education,

- There is also an effort to improve the broadband infrastructure. By 2005 it is expected that 13.5M homes will have 20Mb/s service and that all mobile phones will have 2Mb/s mobile Internet service.

- We foresee not only the emergence of the home gateway but also the personal gateway. This will contain the personal information for an individual. It can be extended to include location, for example. A key factor is privacy and the protection of personal data. There is also the prospect of personal gateways for household pets so that they do not get lost.

The WAVE spoke with Hung Song after the presentation.

- We should be able to see the elements of the future digital home in May at the Broadband World Forum meeting.

- HDS is the home gateway specification. This is a project by the Korean government with KT and many companies in Korea. There will be one specification for a home gateway for the Korean market. The specification spans the high to low level and will be easy to implement. Yes, it is the intent that products which comply with this specification will first go to the Korean market and then be sold outside of Korea. China was specifically cited. A key factor in taking such products to international markets is the ability to customize products rapidly to meet local needs. For example, if we make a version for the UK, and there are 1m homes and we get 10% market share it is essential to be able to do a mass customization for this market rapidly and still make money.

- The personal gateway will evolve over time with the development and miniaturization of technology.

Frontier Communications: Gateway Used to Reduce Churn

Frontier Communications, an ILEC and CLEC, headquartered in Rochester, NY, is in a brutal broadband market. The churn rate at 3% results in over 66% of the new customers dropping broadband by the end of the first year. Based on customer research Frontier feels that placing a gateway in the home will significantly reduce churn. There are important implications about the role that broadband can play including how it is bundled. Chuck Parshall, Director of Product Management and Marketing gave the presentation. Key points include.

- Frontier Communications is an ILEC with 7,800 employees that was founded in 1899. It covers 39 specific markets in 24 states of which the largest is Rochester, NY.

- In 2002 Frontier sought to understand what it could do more for its subscribers in terms of Internet service. A key factor is the 3% churn rate which results in 66% of the new broadband subscribers leaving in 12 months. Given the acquisition cost of $320 per subscriber this is a major blow. Further, once a customer leaves it is very unlikely they will ever return again. Thus, Frontier saw it as critical to better understand why customers left and what new services could be added to keep them.

- The broadband offering varies from $26 to $40/month. The speeds span 256K/128K to 3Mb/284K.

- Chuck divided the market as follows:
-- Broadband to the Jack – placing broadband to the home
-- Broadband to the Home – installation of home networking
-- Broadband to the Town – Wi-Fi to the community (hot -- spots)

- The major reasons for dissatisfaction with broadband were:
-- 30% - Too Expensive
-- 24% - Too Slow

Thus, Frontier realized that consumers were questioning the value.

- When asked what their interest was in the following services the response was:
-- Per Pay Usage – 63% No
-- Pre Pay – 64% No
-- Term Contract – 48% No
-- New Service Features – 50% No but 16% yes.

- When asked the services the following were ranked:
-- Home Monitoring – 44%
-- Training Programs – 39%
-- Home Networking/Computer Support – 28%

This latter factor was seen by Frontier as strong demand.

- When consumers were asked about home networks:
-- 44% understood the home networking concept
-- 25% already have a home network.

From this Frontier crafted a home networking strategy. It included more access, one stop shopping and DSL revenue protection (stop churn). The implementation was to bring home broadband to the whole home. Wi-Fi was a key part of the strategy. This also included two factors: Service and Hardware.

- Service
-- One time hardware purchase
-- Warranty support available
-- Free Delivery
-- 12 month contract
-- 24/7 technical support thought Frontier
- Hardware – done in conjunction with Efficient Networks/Siemens
-- Wired and Wireless solution
-- 802.11b CPE
-- Home Routers
-- Home Hubs
-- Cables
-- Cards
-- Antennas
- Frontier’s position is that “the more you do with us the more we will give you back.”

A key point Frontier made was that when asked, consumers do not know what they want from broadband. It is of no value to ask them. The only practical approach is to try in the market. The value of the home network product is that Frontier is in the consumer’s home. They feel that only by being in the home with a trusted relationship, will it be possible to understand what the consumer will value from broadband.

This program has been in full force for only 2 months. It is too early to say what its impact will be.

The WAVE spoke with Chuck:

- Basically Frontier is in the home IT service business;

- It will be 6 months before we can draw a conclusion on the effectiveness of the program;

- The key parameter to watch is customer infant mortality – the lost rate in the first 12 months.

Other Conference Tidbits

Analog Devices

In response to a question it was stated that ADSL2+ chips would consume 30% more die area than ADSL. However, given the pressures of the market, cost and pricing may not be related. It is expected that ADSL 2+ silicon will ship in volume in 2004.

Wireless in the UK

Orange gave a presentation which had some interesting statistics.

- In the UK 7m individuals no longer have a wired phone.

- The SMS business exceeded the total size of Hollywood industry in 2001;

- There will be 16B SMS messages sent in the UK in 2003; and

- The ringtone sales in the UK will be greater than all single CDs sold.

Japan Continues to Add ADSL Subs at 1/2m per Month

Hiroaki Kobayashi, one of the first to install ADSL in Japan, gave a talk on the state of broadband in Japan. The level of ADSL adoption continues unabated. Consider:

- 500,000 subscribers are being added each month;

- It costs $30/mo for a 12Mb/s line;

- It is expected that Japan will have 10m broadband lines by the end of 2003. Already Yahoo BB has 4m lines. Note that on 12/25/99 there were only 6 ADSL lines in Japan.

- Using the Yahoo BB phone service it only costs 2 cents per minute to call the US;

- The government predicts that there will be 20m lines by the end of 2005.

- There are only 300,000 FTTH lines.

Norwegian Incumbent -- Telenor

The incumbent carrier in Norway, Telenor, struggles with consumers not finding a value proposition in broadband. Telenor's customers view the value of broadband as being too low. For example, 46% of their uses have no intent or need for broadband or that ISDN is adequate. 82% of those who sign up for the service do so for speed. Those that shop, 52% do so because of speed and always on. Over 1m households have not taken broadband due to the lack of utility. Only with volume based pricing have they been able to increase penetration, which has been hard to do.

ADSL Worldwide

Aware stated that there are now 47.5m lines of ADSL worldwide and that 20m were added in the last 12 months.

Over 40 countries now have ADSL. In one of the best characterizations of the impact of geography the following drivers were assigned for revenue growth:
-- Higher Speed – Asia Pacific
-- Improved Reach – USA and Europe
-- Video Service – Europe

The churn rate for ADSL in the US is 4%, and this churn is largely due to stopping broadband because of the lack of value with users returning to dial-up.

Texas Instruments

TI stated that in Korea the HH penetration is now at 77% at a cost of $28. Further, Korea has 8,500 Wi-Fi hot spots, this is ½ of the total in the world. Subscribers can have access to these for only $8.30/ month. TI was especially bullish on home networking. They saw the value in 4 sectors:
-- Home automation,
-- Connectivity,
-- Entertainment and
-- Productivity.

It is their view that the market could grow 8X by 2006. Certainly one of the most aggressive estimates we have seen. In 2004 TI sees the emergence of the Intelligent Residential Gateway (IRG). This will be:
-- An open platform,
-- It provides “just in time” services,
-- Provides for home control,
-- Supports home video distribution and
-- Establishes identity for services, household wants and billing.

TI’s vision has a strong role of wireless LAN in the delivery of bandwidth throughout the home.

Alcatel

Alcatel disclosed on-going standards work on GigaPON, the development of a BPON standard which supports Gigabit rates on BPON. Layer 2 includes support for both ATM and Ethernet. This could be a very significant enhancement to BPON performance.

WAVE Comments

The CEO of BT Wholesale said it best:

- We all wish we had the market saturation problems at KT.

The issue of how to get to a mass market was a hot topic. Everyone is struggling with it. We note how the pricing issues in the UK, i.e. where flat rate unlimited phone use, is a barrier to mass market broadband. Note that the issue has a very different characterization in the US – it is called the digital divide.

Reaching mass market means that mass consumers have a need for bandwidth, something they know nothing about. The only way this will happen is that broadband becomes something like the environment, just like KT said. Without any ready answer to what applications will meet consumer needs, the play sheet is all the same, this market will be successful due to content, home security, home networks, converged communications and productivity improvement (whatever that means to a consumer). Most of these do not fit a mass market because these consumers do not have home security systems, many are without a PC, the home CE is very limited and little, if any, money is available for spending on broadband.

Yet, in Korea the mass market has been reached. KT presented a carefully thought-out strategy to, as they said, go beyond broadband – BBB. What was striking was the depth with which the services they propose extend into businesses. This had all the marks of an IBM Global Services strategy. Yet, in the home KT clearly sees the need to become pervasive. The integrated home gateway is only one component of this. Even KT is entering the device market and this includes its “portable home media platform.”

KT is an important barometer of the market when broadband reaches mass market status. The simple reason is that they have the experience that no other organization or country has. Additionally KT is showing a level of market and technology innovation not present in Europe and especially in the US. The head turning factor today was that we sat with the best in broadband and KT not only is in the middle of the future, of where everyone wants to be, but they had a plan.

Technology innovation is easy compared to consumer mass market innovation. Thus, it is all the more important to understand the dynamics in Korea.

Home Networking

The home networking solutions we saw here reflect the backgrounds of the industry and speakers. I lost track of the number of times a home network drawing was shown that looked like an Internet cloud, with CE devices on the edge. Flowing in the description were the usual network issues such as management, Layer 2 and 3 structure and NAT, to name only a few. Following shortly were the obligatory words – “and we must make this easy to use.” The vision of the network and its application is based on who has the vision and those with the network drawing came from telecommunications or data networking.

In terms of home networking there is a theme that this is another beach head to increase the value of broadband to the home. Wireless is basically synonymous with the home network implementation. But, the PC is only an aspect of this, and the scope of the home gateway standards effort in Korea made this clear.

The Conference

As with many markets, especially relatively small ones, it is an exclusive club. Everyone knows everyone else. There is an inside track based on core competency, supplier and buyer relationships and hard lessons learned. This builds mutual relationships and helps grow the market. What was striking here about the broadband market is that it is international. The US is important, but not a leading player. The fratricide in-fighting in the US broadband market looks infantile in the scope of the potential of broadband, as seen in conferences such as these.

1,500 came to the Broadband World Forum. This was the third. It was the best consumer-broadband-only event we have attended. The next one is in May in Seoul. Korea is going all out to support it. It will likely top the value gained from this event.

0337.3 3D

***SeeReal to Demo High-Res 3D Display Prototype
(November 11)

SeeReal, a developer of 3D displays for computer graphics and video, announced today that the company will show a prototype 3D display at the Medica exhibition in Dusseldorf, Germany, in mid-November. The 20 inch prototype display has a resolution of 1600 x 1200 pixels, which SeeReals claims is a resolution record for a 3D display. In addition, a viewer can move up to six centimeters from the center of the monitor, and still see a perfect 3D image. The company stated that a sweet spot this large is also a record.

Earlier this year, SeeReals introduced two displays, the C-i and the C-s, which both featured a resolution of 1280 x 1024, and adjusted their image according the position of the viewer. The C-i display tracked the viewer with a stereoscopic camera system, while the C-s tracked a small device the viewer wore. This allowed accurate tracking even in low-light situations.

http://www.seereal.com

See the WAVE Tutorial on Flat Panel 3D Displays:
http://www.wave-report.com/tutorials/3ddisplay.htm


***Digimation Model Bank Now Available Online; More Formats
(November 13)

Digimation today announced that their entire Model Bank Collection of 3D models is now available on-line in a variety of popular 3D file formats, providing compatibility with Maya, LightWave, Cinema4D, Softimage, trueSpace and other 3D animation packages.

The Model Bank Collection contains 1,160 distinct models, each in four levels of detail, for a total of more than 4,600 models. Each model has been detailed and comes complete with accompanying materials and texture maps. A variety of subject matter is covered, including military and civilian vehicles, aircraft, ships, animals, architecture, furnishings, anatomy and more.

Until now, the Model Bank Collection was only available on CD-ROM in 3ds max (.max) format. Now the collection is accessible on-line in many 3D formats, including .3ds, .obj, .dxf, .cob (trueSpace), .x (DirectX), .vrml, and .w3d (Shockwave 3D).

Each model in the Model Bank Collection comes in several varying levels of detail (LOD) for uses ranging from broadcast to realtime applications. The appropriate LOD can be chosen to suit varying camera distances and other technical requirements. For example a helicopter comes in four resolutions: 1K, 10K, 116K, and 255K polygons respectively. The resolution levels are:

- Very High - for close-up shots, print applications or whenever maximum realism is required.
- High - for use in foreground shots when rendering time is especially important.
- Medium - for models that occupy less prominent positions, or when multiple models are needed.
- Low - optimized polygon count models for realtime applications and game development.

All Model Bank models come complete with materials and detailed texture, bump and reflection maps. There are literally thousands of image maps included in the collection. However, since these models were originally created in .max format, models downloaded in other formats may need to have materials and/or texture maps reassigned.

Purchasing the Model Bank Collection can be accomplished in two ways. Either choose the eight CD collection (.max format only), or select the convenient on-line collection for access to the models in all of the formats listed above. To order the CD collection, contact Digimation directly. The on-line collection can be ordered directly from the company Web site; once approved, the customer has instant access to all Model Bank models, in all Levels of Detail and in all file formats. Individual Model Bank models are also available for sale on the Web site.

The Model Bank Collection is available for a limited time for only $695 (either on-line or CD version), which is 30% below the regular price of $995. The special pricing ends on 12/31/03.

http://www.digimation.com

0337.4 OLED

***UDC to Supply Tohoku Pioneer with PHOLED Technology
(November 12)

Tohoku Pioneer Corporation, a subsidiary of Pioneer Corporation and a supplier of OLED displays, and Universal Display Corporation, a developer of organic light emitting device (OLED) technology for flat panel displays and other opto-electronic applications, announced today that they have entered into an agreement for Universal Display to provide phosphorescent OLED (PHOLED) material to Tohoku Pioneer for its commercial production of passive-matrix OLED displays. Universal Display Corporation has begun shipping its proprietary red PHOLED material to Tohoku Pioneer Corporation, and the first products incorporating this technology will be announced in the near future.

Universal Display Corporation is developing proprietary PHOLED materials and technologies with its research partners at Princeton University and the University of Southern California, as well as its commercial development and supply partner, PPG Industries, Inc. The company has stated that their PHOLED materials have up to four times the power efficiency of conventional OLED materials. Universal Display is also working on a number of other proprietary OLED technologies including transparent OLED (TOLED) displays and flexible OLED (FOLED) displays.

Tohoku Pioneer is a major affiliate of the Pioneer Corporation, the electronics equipment manufacturer. Tohoku Pioneer achieved the world's first mass production of OLED displays in 1997. Tohoku Pioneer currently mass-produces area-color and full-color OLED displays for use in car instrument panels and mobile phones. Recently, Tohoku Pioneer showed prototypes of 2.4-inch low-temperature polysilicon thin-film transistor active matrix display panel with 240 x 320 pixels which is capable of displaying 260,000 colors.

Universal Display Corporation develops and commercializes OLED technologies and materials for use in the electronic flat panel display and other markets. It is working with a network of organizations, and its collaborations include relationships for OLED technology research with Princeton University and the University of Southern California; a joint development and cross-licensing arrangement with DuPont Displays for solution-processible OLEDs; a joint development agreement with Sony Corporation; a joint development agreement with Samsung SDI; a development and evaluation agreement with Toyota Industries Corporation relating to OLEDs for white light sources; an evaluation agreement with AU Optronics focusing on OLEDs using amorphous silicon TFT's; development and supply agreements with PPG Industries, Inc. of Pittsburgh, PA for the development and commercial production of proprietary OLED materials; and a partnership with AIXTRON AG of Aachen, Germany for the development and production of OLED manufacturing equipment using Universal Display Corporation's proprietary organic vapor phase deposition (OVPD) technology.

http://www.universaldisplay.com

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