3D --- Media Creation --- Shared Space
Published by 4th WAVE, Inc.
Issue #617 1/3/97
CONTENTS
John Carmack Discloses 3D API Views and Plans
In a sharply worded message to the 3D industry, John Carmack of id Software describes how OpenGL is a better API than Direct3D. As a result of his experience he has decided not to complete the Direct3D (Immediate Mode) port of Quake. For the details check his .plan file at: johnc@idsoftware.com
TGS Acquires Portable Graphics and VRML, Inc.
In two bold industry moves this week, TGS announced that they had acquired both Portable Graphics and VRML, Inc. Portable Graphics, a wholly-owned subsidiary of E & S, was a former competitor of TGS in the OpenGL and Open Inventor toolkits market. Under the terms of the deal, E & S will acquire a minority interest in TGS. At the same time, TGS also announced the acquistion of VRML, Inc., a company in which they have previously made investments.
Electric Image Competetive Upgrade
On Dec. 16, Electric Image announced a low-cost competetive upgrade option for their ElectricImage Broadcast professional Macintosh animation program. Under the deal, current owners of LightWave, 3D Studio, Strata Studio Pro Blitz, Infini-D, Ray Dream Studio, Alias Wavefront, SoftImage, Crystal Topaz and Houdini can buy ElectricImage Broadcast for $1,495, a full $1,000 less than the full retail price of the software. The program will be in effect until March 15, 1997. While the software is currently Mac-only, a Windows NT version is in development; when released, a "side- grade" offer will allow owners of the Mac version to switch to the NT version for $199.
http://www.electricimage.com (800) RENDER1
New pricing was announced for the Imagine 128 Series 2 family of accelerators. The new pricing is as follows:
| Model | Memory | Old Price | New Price |
| Imagine 128 Series 2e | 4MB EDO DRAM | $399 | $349 |
| Imagine 128 Series 2 | 4MB EDO VRAM | $699 | $499 |
| Imagine 128 Series 2 | 8MB EDO VRAM | n/a | $699 |
On Dec. 9, 3Dfx Interactive announced that they had raised an additional $11.6 million in their third round of funding. Founded in 1994, previous high-profile investors in 3Dfx include Northwest Venture Capital, Chase Ventures, U.S. Venture Partners and Venrock Associates. Since their founding, support for 3Dfx's Voodoo Graphics architecture has been steadily growing, with announced support from a large number of hardware vendors and OEMs, as well as over 100 Voodoo Graphics-based game titles currently in development.
Paradigm: Vega-VCR & Investment
Paradigm made two announcements recently:
This week, they released the Vega Class Recorder Module (Vega-VCR), which allows users to record and play back real-time simulations, with functionality similar to a conventional VCR. Vega-VCR works in conjunction with the Vega real-time development tool, and is available now for $3,495.
Paradigm also announced that they will receive $3 million in new capital under a new investment deal. In addition, they announced that they have appointed Dr. Thomas Cantwell (a former CEO and co-founder of Paradigm) as the president and CEO.
Event: The 3D Design Conference and Exhibition Date: June 2-5, 1997 Location: The Mariott Hotel - San Francisco, CA Contacts: (617) 821-9224 (attendees) (415) 278-5224 Debra Barstad (exhibitors) (415) 278-5235 Jessica Rogers (questions or press info) Description: Conference & trade show, with an educational program and exhibition featuring 3D hardware, software and services vendors. Organizer: Miller Freeman, Inc. (415) 356-3343
Matrox Utilizes ActiveMovie 2.0 and DirectX
Matrox Video Products Group has announced their intent to integrate Microsoft's ActiveMovie 2.0 and DirectX technologies in their DigiSuite product line, an "open-architecture, PC-based, broadcast-quality digital video hardware designed for the professional television broadcast, cable, post-production and digital media authoring industries." Applications running on DigiSuite under ActiveMovie have been announced by two nonlinear editing systems suppliers: SoftImage's Digital Studio and D- Vision's OnLINE 2.0.
The day before Christmas, the FCC at long last adopted the proposed digital TV (DTV) (see WAVE #615, 12/6/96) standard after about 9 years of debate and research. The endorsement clears the way for manufacturers to begin designing consumer DTV equipment, including both the TV and PC industries, although the first digital TVs are not expected to appear until 1998 at the earliest. The standard is based on the ATSC's Doc. A/53 with the exception of section 5.1.2, "Compression Format Constraints."
It has been reported that a small percentage of users have experienced problems when installing game titles featuring DirectX, such as system freezes or other unexplained phenomenon. The problems arise from game titles using DirectX drivers that are not certified by Microsoft. To meet these problems, Microsoft has posted a DirectX FAQ sections on their Web site, and urges users to download the latest version of DirectX (version 3.0). In addition, they are working with both hardware and software vendors to troubleshoot and post information on DirectX-related problems.
http//www.microsoft.com/mediadev/dirxqa.htm
In our game reviews section in WAVE #616, we reported that Microsoft's Hellbender game was pre-rendered. However, according to Hadden Hoppert of Real3D, "HellBender is NOT pre-rendered. (It uses the same engine as Terminal Velocity and Fury 3)."
Microsoft Prepares for Multimedia Strategy Day
Microsoft will hold an event in San Francisco for the press and industry analysts on 28 January to outline its multimedia strategy. There is every indication that this will be an important statement by Microsoft.
e-mail: lisam@mkinc.com
617.2 3D 1997 - A Look Forward by John Latta
Is 1997 a "3D Year?" In spite of our enthusiasm for the technology we increasingly expect that 1997 will be another year where the supporting 3D technology is too little too late to have a major impact on Q4. Why? Making 3D happen is all about creating a 3D infrastructure and creating infrastructures is a slow process. Here are the factors which we see gating the 3D marketplace in 1997 and beyond.
In spite 3D's heritage from flight simulators going back 20+ years and more recently SGI workstations, the only real market of import is the mass market. It is here, where the desktops and home PC media appliances incorporate 3D, that the technology will have the greatest impact. With impact comes the prospect for being a growth company who supplies 3D hardware or software in the next 5 years. PCs will compete with next generation game platforms and the "war for the eyeballs" as Andy Grove of Intel described it in his COMDEX keynote. Just as HP found it could not be a major PC company without selling consumer PCs 3D chip companies will find that they cannot have a major role in the market without gaining the economies of scale and economic access to state-of-the-art fab that large unit volumes enable. Being successful in 3D is about delivering the best technology, the best experience and new applications in 10's of millions of units. 3D has close parallels with the development of the microprocessor based PC industry in the early 1980's. Delivering high quality real time 3D is a price performance game. Being a niche player is the same as being a small player - just ask Apple.
With software rendering now having achieved at least 20f/s, hardware acceleration is only of value if it brings a significant improvement in image quality. There is no consumer market pull for 3D which is a "little better." This means at least bi-linear perspective correct texture mapped images at 30f/s in a 640 X 480 window - minimum. "Free D" does not cut it. Turning filtering features off to pump up the pixel fill rate is a losing game. Although frame rate has been an important parameter to judge performance this will rapidly fade as anything less than real time (30f/s) will be judged as a loser. Today the best measure of image quality is correlated with pixel fill rate and this will remain for some time to come.
The gating performance metrics in 3D will evolve in three steps. First, the leading chips will be those which excel in pixel fill rate. 3Dfx has already set the market threshold at 50+Mp/sec and we expect this will to continue to rise. This parameter is basically a rasteriser performance metric based on the bandwidth to the texture memory. Next, the market will shift to polygon rate. There are a number of reasons for this and the primary one being that the number of polygons per frame determines the number of objects in the scene. (We are implicitly assuming that the fill rate continues to rise so that the depth complexity is not compromised as the polygon rate also rises.) Another related reason is that content designers will put an emphasis on humans in their polygon budgets. A credible human takes 5,000 polygons. Thus, if you mingle with 4 of your closest friends, assuming the scene takes 5,000 polygons, this results in a requirement to process 25,000 polygons at the frame rate or 1.5M polygons/sec at 60 Hz. The third transition will occur at the level of 1 - 2 M polygons per second when there are "excess" polygons (most will say there are never enough polygons). At this level, explicit quality features will enable those with the best and most to become market discriminators. To some extent we saw this in the E&S Harmony video tape at COMDEX. The SGI Infinite Reality also fits into this class. Quality features include anti-alaising, lighting, bump mapping and filtering beyond tri-linear MIP Mapping. The realization of this performance is not one of understanding the core technology but of design and process technology - getting the best performance and the most features in the least gates with the best process technology available to the 3D chip company.
Geometry Engines will play an increasingly important role in 3D chip design. The reasons are three fold: flexibility, features and performance. As the emphasis shifts to polygon performance and lighting along with flexible API compliance watch for programmable geometry engines to play an increasingly important role in future chips. In addition, the more sophisticated chips will provide feedback on pipeline loading so that developers can optimize the scene content for maximum performance.
State-of-the-art 3D chip technology will continue to enter the market at the high end - at end user price points => $1,000. However, in spite of being a technology entry point this is still a limited and narrow market (in terms of unit volume). For companies to grow and gain market share they must move down market in what is already a brutal battlefield. However, just as SGI has found that high priced systems are the means to define the 3D workstation market with state-of-the-art capabilities it is also the markets which have the gross margins sufficient to cover the high development costs. In the PC space companies will participate in the high end for many of the same reasons - 3DLabs is a good case in point. The PC cost metrics also give these same companies an excellent lever by which to compete with SGI. The PC will offer performance comparable to an SGI system but at 1/10 the cost. Again 3Dfx is playing to this strategy, at least in the game space. A critical factor in the development of performance driven 3D, including the high end, is that segmentation by APIs will disappear. Only the pristine will have a single API solution, be it Direct 3D or OpenGL.
Integrating state-of-the-art 2D with 3D onto an accelerator chip is a given. Better think of it as a display processor. Pass thru cables have gone the way of the dodo bird, NSP and UNIX.
Texture compression and data management will have an increasing role in next generation chips. The effective use of texture is the most efficient means to increase scene content complexity and realism. Texture memory sizes will rapidly reach 10MB+. As a result of the continuing demand on performance, as outlined above, only local texture memory will be an adequate solution - even with AGP. Thus, texture compression and management of texture storage will be critical to keep system costs down and continue the upward spiral of performance at mass market prices.
An issue largely unaddressed by the emerging 3D hardware industry is platform performance optimization. Intel is very sensitive of the need to have an integrated design (which they call optimized) which is a lowest cost solution for a mass market platform. Yet, there are a number of factors which Intel does not control including the add-in card market. In many respects platform optimization is similar to L1 and L2 cache integration into the microprocessor, the core logic chip set and the platform itself. Yet, what 3D brings is the need to optimize the platform in much the same way that multimedia does - nearly all system components from the OS to the I/O subsystem to the memory design to the driver to the 3D chip and the microprocessor influence 3D performance. Although AGP is an attempt to raise the bandwidth to main memory for texture storage at 500MB/sec even this rate is inadequate for many of today's 3D chip designs. Tuning the PC platform for optimum 3D performance could make Plug and Play look like a cake walk. But being able to continue to push the 3D performance envelope with a PC system design is critical if the PC is to compete against SGI at the high end and the home video console at the low end.
Benchmarking is one of the most difficult issues which the 3D industry faces, aside from the chip design challenges and creating compelling software applications. Benchmarking will split into two segments: application level benchmarks and performance characterization. Although application level benchmarks will focus on system level performance issues they will not address the image quality issue. Two systems could have virtually the same performance but different output quality levels which could result in significantly different user experiences. In performance characterization there are a number of techniques to measure isolated parameters such as pixel fill rate, polygon rate and frame rate and early benchmarking tests will quantify these. However, as the industry transitions to the 20,000+ polygon/frame performance level, image quality metrics will become increasingly important. The fundamental issue is - how is image quality measured in video and especially where multi-frame quality impacts are to be assessed? We believe that image quality will only be evaluated subjectively. However, we expect that techniques will evolve which quantify typical 3D image generation quality artifacts. These will then be categorized, ranked and rated in terms of their impact on the perceive video image. With such tools being used in side-by-side comparisons by experienced observers relative image quality measures can be assigned to 3D output. Comprehensive and fair benchmarks are critical to the industry. If 2D accelerators are any indicator we expect that winners in 3D benchmarks will be correlated with 3D market leaders. Sales will rise and fall based on benchmarking results. Benchmarking is a high stakes game and if done well could cause the bar of 3D performance to rise continually as vendors release new chips to better the competition.
Stimulating developer attention (commitment?) with 3D hardware spec sheets is a vacuous proposition. To an application or game developer the only thing which counts is having running 3D accelerated hardware. Spec sheets are a dime a dozen. We also see where chips get "binned" within quality bands (today's bands are based on pixel fill rate as discussed above) and those who break out of those bands with significant price performance advantages get developer attention. 3Dfx has shown that its superior fill rate allowed it to draw developers and, as a result, games were ported to its Voodoo chip.
3D is a chicken and egg market. Without an installed base of 3D accelerators developers will not invest to create content or applications which uses them. (There will be a few pioneers with early development titles, however, most of them will be paid for their efforts.) But more importantly, developers want only one or two APIs or accelerators to write to and not a proliferation of 3D interfaces, be they hardware or software. The key operatives are installed base, stability and minimum performance level. In this respect 3D closely parallels the development of the early CD-ROM and multimedia title market.
There is more to 3D software than games, CAD, 3D GIS and visualization. The problem is that no one has a clue as to what. It may be a new user interface, personal shared environments or interactive movies. Just as Visicalc and 123 created market pull and Doom did the same as a game title, the same can happen with a 3D title or application which exploits acceleration. We see the opportunities for 3D software as being a wide open playing field. We believe the challenge is clear - create compelling 3D and they will come.
With better 3D acceleration we expect that much of the content will begin to look more like traditional flight simulator data bases which are optimized for visualization. In the case of games, data bases would contain scene and object descriptions, animation scripts, audio content and events which key the audio, environment physics and object dynamics. Just one problem - it is too difficult and time consuming to create these data bases. The barriers to making compelling 3D content are too high. Presently the best tool for real time data base creation is Multigen but it is too complex for a large market or one which is production oriented. RealiMation by Datapath is a significant step forward in database editing and viewing. In the future 3D databases can come from other 3D information sources such as CAD, but sophisticated simplification technology is required as SGI showed at the recent Autofact show. The types of information and level of detail required for object visualization is substantially different than that required to design, manufacture or build the item be it an alternator or building. Think of 3D data base and display technology as the portal to the "real" information about that same item through the use of a visual metaphor. Multiple types of 3D content exist which describes objects but these, from the standpoint of visualization and access to the object information, are, in most cases, incoherent and incompatible. Thus, the potential for real time 3D technology to enable the seamless exploration of 3D content, where the content comes from many sources based on its purpose and application, is unrealized. To visualize the problem one only has to think of the all digital design of the Boeing 777.
Closely related to data base creation is object behaviors and intelligence. Today the emphasis is on having libraries of objects which are either in polygonal form or can be reduced to polygons. What is needed is a modular method of adding object attributes and behaviors based on the use for the model, object or character. In fact, the natural progression of the technology is that object attributes will change with time and the conditions under which the object is within the scene. Deformation characteristics are only required when needed, for example. We see object attributes as an area largely untouched. An elegant solution will make it easier to create environments, populate them with objects, have useful interactions between objects in an environment and implement participant and equipment interfaces from the real to the virtual. A key problem is that a proprietary solution is not what the industry needs to build a 3D infrastructure.
The union of networking, 3D, and a social experience is a virtual community. We find today's implementation lacking for a number of reasons. First, given the reliance on software rendering at the client the images of avatars look silly. Not only must there be a better image representations of humans but of human attributes as well. Communities have social structures and a culture, however, in order to bridge the gap between real (as we experience in our normal lives) and virtual (as experienced in the virtual community) the participants must use fantasy to imagine what the virtual environment represents. For most practical applications adults find fantasy unappealing in the conduct of work and many of life's functions. Finally, our review of virtual communities finds that unique applications - short of games - are hard to isolate. Thus, virtual communities are another combination of technologies in search of a market.
Animation, or past time 3D, is for movies and television productions. Only real time 3D counts on the PC. In many respects 3D is just another media form which allows the participant to see, experience and interact in scenes in real time. 3D is a form of multimedia and its potential comes when there is a seamless blend between 3D and high quality video. The genre of interactive movies will come on its own when real time objects and characters participate within a DVD video playback and are, for all practical purposes, unrecognizable as coming from a 3D image generator. Thus, the interactive movie can be different each time and the characters can change based on the plot and unfolding events in the movie. Consider an interactive movie with Myst quality, mysterious characters that change with every game play, characters who respond to player actions and where exploration of the environment is done, in part, with user controlled flashlights. The PC has the potential to reach a new plateau of interactive entertainment. Part of this plateau will be reached when the boundary between real (video) and virtual (real time 3D) is difficult to discern. Unfortunately, this makes Wing Commander IV look like a simple exercise.
This is all about creating a 3D infrastructure. Unfortunately, in spite of many attempts at parallel evolution of components in the infrastructure it seems to go one step at a time.
What does 1997 hold for 3D? Come share our crystal ball.
Threshold for acceptable 3D will be 55Mp/sec - minimum
Just as the 3Dfx Voodoo, with its 50+Mpixel/sec fill rate, set the standard as a target for game content that level of performance will remain as the minimum in 1997, only more companies will achieve it. The infamous "free 3D" decelerator chips will fade into oblivion - nice try but largely ineffectual in impacting the market. Market demand was absent and content happened when developers were paid.
AGP will have only a minimal market impact
AGP hardware, Microsoft's essential software, both the OS and DirectX 5.0, and applications, including games, will be too late for AGP to have much of an impact on the Christmas buying season. Increasingly AGP is looking like MMX all over again. Look to 1998.
The increasing role of OpenGL as a cross platform API will make it all the more difficult for Direct3D to establish the dominant position on the Windows platform. The expected shipment of Direct X 5.0 in June only limits the ability of Direct3D to impact Christmas of 1997 because it comes too late in the calendar year.
Software will continue to significantly lag chips and hardware
Without a large base of installed 3D chips or an universally accepted API software developers will hold back from the market. This only retards the introduction of cutting edge high quality 3D applications which leverage acceleration.
VRML as an industry effort will implode
Without a strong consortium headed by a recognized industry leader VRML will be just another file format with a diminishing contribution. There are too many factions with strong vested interests to see VRML become the force it should and could be.
Emergence of one significant accelerated 3D application
We have no idea what the application will be but we know its attributes: priced under $50, usable by any consumer, not necessarily a game, fun, and new. Today the best selling 3D applications are home design programs for consumers. This may or may not be the seed from which the 3D application will sprout. A 3D killer app which presses acceleration technology is what the industry desperately needs.
Technology will be announced which will threaten SGI's dominance of 3D on the Workstation
At the high end of the market winners will be made by attacking SGI with a significant price-performance advantage. In 1997 it will be clear that SGI's 3D performance advantage over other workstations and PCs will begin to erode. The technology may not ship but the threat will be more evident than ever.
3D on Portables will not make it but few will care
Already there is industry buzz about AGP on portables and desktop like 3D performance on mobile computers. Portables are about e-mail and productivity, not games.
3D Games will remain the software category which shows cutting-edge 3D performance
Just as in 1996, the number of 3D game titles was significantly less than promised. We expect that 1997 will be repeated - high initial expectations with less delivery. Although we predict that no more than 10 titles will effectively push the envelope of accelerated 3D these titles will show the potential of 3D as an entertainment medium on the PC which directly competes with home video consoles.
3D will become an intellectual property minefield
Little has been said about the on-going legal battle between Lockheed Martin and Silicon Graphics over 3D intellectual property (IP). Given that much of the underlying technology for 3D image generation is 20+ years old it is not surprising that companies will lay stake in what they feel is their own and where there is a market potential from which royalties can be extracted. We expect that this will be continuing mine field which will blow up on the unsuspecting. In 1997 many IP issues will surface. Let the 3D developer beware.
Copyright 1997 4th WAVE Inc.
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